What works for me on long group rides and commutes (1.5 hours) down to -15C (not including windchill) is an outer soft shell jacket that has a windproof front for the (chest and arms) and breathable back/back of the arms. Depending on how cold it gets I have anywhere from 1 to 3 more layers inside. I alternate between a Pearl Izumi Barrier or a Castelli Mortirolo jacket for the outer layer. Both do the job equally well... I still get sweaty on hard efforts (group rides) but much less so than if I wore a non breathable jacket.