Is it possible that as it gets colder your caffeine intake goes up? I had a large Starbucks peppermint mocha wuss drink about an hour before I rode yesterday, and chased it with some diet Coke, and then wondered why I had to pull off the road and pollute Floyd's Fork.
As Jan pointed out, it gets more challenging this time of year to find cover.
Bottom line is to be wary of your caffeine intake.
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Momento mori, amor fati.