Originally Posted by
Marcus_Ti
I think it is silly to assume it will.
Bike prices, bike equipment, and bike gear prices in the last decade have only gone one direction. Higher and higher and higher. First gas prices were blamed, then when the fuel prices went down it was revealed what was really going on: jacked up prices simply because they could. Power meter prices have been locked in for a long while now. Electronic gruppos have locked in as well.
So no, it isn't going to penetrate to lower price points. AAMOF, the "lower price points" are only going to go up. Hell, entry road bike prices have doubled in the last decade. And as I said, prices are only going to go up.
Where you are wrong is if you deny auto shift tech you deny the existence of Di2 and EPS and Sram's forthcoming wireless shifting tech. It is here. Auto shift is basically just software + PM. This tech will accompany virtually every Di2 bike in the next 5 years and be part of the price of the package.
No question.
So you don't see the big picture. A kid or adult can still build a fixie with no brakes. He/she can also ride one of these when the time comes. Not everybody can afford a Corvette, Porsche or BMW. This will cost much less. I like mechanical shifting btw but when this hits the market after two years, I will probably buy it for the simple reason there is very little downside to electric shifting some up side. And when cruising through town or on a long leisurely ride, I would have no problem letting the bike shift. I may prefer if in the heat of the battle to shift manually but even then would depend on how good auto shifting gets and I believe over time it will be excellent.
Btw, I also see a future of integrated motors in the 500-1000W range that can also be integrated right into the bike based upon improved battery technology. This will turn an average rider into a CAT1 or a very old man into an average rider. That day will come as well.