It's a couple things, but you're definitely not wrong! The front fender is a Toba of some sort that I got for free after destroying my original Blackburn Cloudburst (longer than the Toba, but not quite as long as yours) when the original fork decided to suddenly and inexplicably bend. The clearance is also quite tight with the tires I've got on it right now, so there was some snow building up near the stays and then spraying upward.