Originally Posted by
Mobile 155
Most of the prediction part. The book is now 20 years old and he said this.
Originally Posted by James Howard Kunstler in Home From Nowhere Anybody who thinks we're going to be using cars twenty-five years from now the way we've been accustomed to using them in the recent past ought to have his head examined. That phase of out national history is over.
Car sales still are doing pretty well in most places. Cycling is still under 5 percent, walking isn't much better. Mass transit is begging for money and congress is resisting funding for it but granting funding for road building, and Hybrid car development. So it seems as if that phase is not over at all. And with the multiple posts in this sub forum about automated vehicles is any indication cars may be with us for quite a while after everyone that read his book is looking at the grass from the wrong side. Look at how things are working out in China and India and see if the car culture hasn't grown from National to international.
Okay, sorry, I thought you were talking about some more detailed predictions than that one general quote. I agree the trend away from cars in the USA hasn't picked up much steam yet, and I don’t think we'll see a huge shift by 2021, so as others say, his timeline may be off. Still, he made a very non-specific statement that "the way we use cars" will change, so I'd have to see that statement in a fuller context to know if will turn out to be prescient.