Originally Posted by cooker

I don't think Kunstler was suggesting all car activity was going to be replaced by bikes, rather that use of cars was going to change. That could include people switching to other modes of commuting to work, or driving less for recreational or other purposes.
Vehicle sales dropped almost by half during the recession, so some of that "bouncing back" is simply delayed replacement, so if trucks were the most popular vehicle prior to the recession, it makes sense that many of the people who are replacing their aging vehicles are replacing trucks with trucks. Also, the reduction in driving is probably a more urban phenomenon, so you would probably expect that any "rebound" has more of a suburban/rural flavour, where more people drive trucks.

I'm not sure the "40 year slump" in bikes is directly relevant here. The huge bike boom in the 1970s was mostly recreational, not transportational, and it occurred while cars were also booming. It's not like people were choosing bikes over cars back then.