In the last year or so, I broke 3 outbound spokes on my front wheel. I think the last one was mid February (not particularly cold weather either). So, I'm now at about 6 months and 2000 to 3000 miles since the last broken spoke.

In June, I did 400 miles in 5 days. For that trip, I decided to bring 2 spare spokes with me. Of course, it is easier to replace front spokes than rear spokes on the road. Z-Bend Spokes? Cable Spokes?

Anyway, I anticipate breaking the rest of the outbound spokes, assuming I keep using the wheel, but one never quite can anticipate when. Days? Months? Years?