When deciding to ride on a day that forecasts inclement weather conditions, how close do you challenge the timing of weather to being out on the bicycle?

I've planned out as close to a 45 min window before the "expected" t-storm/heavy rain, & have been caught 50% of the time in the unfavorable weather conditions.

Today is tempting with another "challenge" to the forecast, but my confidence in the forecast is pretty low from the recent meteorologist's predictions. Where can anyone else be so wrong at a job yet not get fired? Dream job! lol