When deciding to ride on a day that forecasts inclement weather conditions, how close do you challenge the timing of weather to being out on the bicycle?

I've planned out as close to a 45 min window before the "expected" t-storm/heavy rain, & have been caught 50% of the time in the unfavorable weather conditions.

Today is tempting with another "challenge" to the forecast, but my confidence in the forecast is pretty low from the recent meteorologist's predictions. Where can anyone else be so wrong at a job yet not get fired? Dream job! lol

I check the weather on my phone (MyRadar app) and if there is rain in the vicinity and its heading my way I don't go out. Otherwise I'm good to go.

It's a guessing at best and it's not like the forecasts aren't wrong a lot too!
Getting ready to go out and chance it today, Forecast say won't start till 2 and the only 30% chance. I think I have just enough window to get a ride in.

I’ll go out with a packable rain jacket, so if it rains all I have to do is toss it on and bike home.

Bring the gear ... and if you happen to get caught in something, it's OK.

Our prevailing weather tends to be from the SW or West, so I watch the radar, ride towards it and race the rain home.

I commute, so I've always got my rain cape, and fenders. I do have one un-fendered road bike, but I leave that at home on days with possible rain.

I also have been especially enjoying the Weather Underground app since they began listing the expected amount of precipitation hour by hour in addition to the percentage change of rain. A 70% chance of .01" of rain is nothing to worry about. I also check the radar view.

But even with all the new weather tools and predictive algorithms...it's still a crap shoot.

Everyone talks about the weather...nobody does anything about it.

I always carry a waterproof jacket (Showers Pass) and pants (North Face); these are basically "shells". Additional layers (Patagonia Polar Fleece) for the top are carried according to the season. If it's below zero (F) I add a polar fleece liner (Under Armour) under the pants.
For rain, I feel it's important for the jacket to have a hood that fits under the helmet (over the lid would be OK too). Waterproof gloves are important, especially in the cold. Pearl Izumi "lobster mitts" have worked well for me, and seem to maintain their warmth even when soaking wet.
Any of this stuff I'm not actually wearing is strapped to the back of my backpack where it's easily accessible if the weather changes. Having access to the stuff you need to ride in virtually *any* weather basically takes the weather out of the decision whether to ride or not.
Steve

All good feedback. I don't pack spare rain gear. If rain is likely, then I'll wear gear that would accommodate such. Today I managed to beat the stormy weather. Did not even have to ride in between the drops!

It depends. If its calling for light, on/off, or normal steady rain than I'll just go out whenever. I don't mind just rain.
If it's calling for bad storms, I go by how it looks outside along with the hourly forecast. Usually works out, if I decide to go out.

I don't like to mess with potential tornadoes, hail, or trees falling down. So I tend to play it safe, but the local radar tends to be pretty reliable for me. Out in the Midwest, we get reasonably decent warning of what's coming in off the Plains.

If it's just rain then the call comes down to whether I bring rain gear or not.

I'm a former USAF meteorologist. Trust the radar and your eyeballs first, the forecast after that. Forecasts are made hours in advance and are typically only updated when flight or human safety conditions warrant it. The radar is a great guide unless your locale is the spawning ground for storms that start there and move on out. In those cases, you can look outside and see that that could be likely.

I live in Seattle. This time of year, every day is inclement weather. If you don’t ride in the rain, you don’t ride.

For the most part, poor weather drives more concern regarding careless irresponsible drivers.
The bike can only stop ao fast, factor in a downpour... lights out.

Three times in my cycling history, I did not pack spare rain gear.

Three times in my cycling history, I regretted that I did not pack spare rain gear.

I pack spare rain gear.

I bring a rain suit made for camping. Packs to about 6"x6" and maybe 4" thick. also has a hook on the pouch it stores in so even without a bag it shouldn't be hard to find a place to clip it to your bike. Also has a hood that fits under my helmet. Google "camping rain suit", its priceless

Wearing the spares tends to support the slick weather rather than trying to stow it aboard.

When you're on a 100+ km bicycle ride, the weather often changes throughout the ride. It may be sunny and warm when the ride starts ... but 3 or 4 hours later, a cold rain system could roll in.

On a commute, I'll watch the radar "movie" and try to time a 45 minute gap for my 45 minute ride. Usually works, although sometimes it'll rain.


If I'm on a longer, but still informal, ride, I like to leave a 30 minute window after getting home before the rain hits.


On a formal ride (century, brevet, or the like), unless it's going to be too bad to ride, break out the raincoat and make sure there's something to wipe my glasses with in a dry bag for when it stops.

EDIT 11/7/17 4:33pm
wondering if I can get in a cpl hrs on the bike (an hr from now) before it REALLY rains (or snows)