I commute, so I've always got my rain cape, and fenders. I do have one un-fendered road bike, but I leave that at home on days with possible rain.

I also have been especially enjoying the Weather Underground app since they began listing the expected amount of precipitation hour by hour in addition to the percentage change of rain. A 70% chance of .01" of rain is nothing to worry about. I also check the radar view.

But even with all the new weather tools and predictive algorithms...it's still a crap shoot.

Everyone talks about the weather...nobody does anything about it.