Originally Posted by
Sy Reene
Thanks. Kinda what I was thinking -- ie. that all of the athletes have to be pretty darn good at long haul endurance. The reasons for the typically heavier sprinters to not win climbs has been pretty well explained, and I think your's and Rubik's comments explain mostly why sprinters do and can win some stages. Honestly, I didn't realize that the peloton draft offered what was mentioned as roughly a 10mph speed bonus.. I always assumed (incorrectly obviously) that it was maybe half of that.
Since even the sprint/flat style stages tend to have their GC riders finishing with the same time (though typically not winning) as the winners, I partly wonder why teams bother to pay and put name-brand sprinters on their teams, as opposed to more GC contenders. I presume it's to gain more likely and frequent appearances by their team on the podium (and maybe a green jersey), vs. the tradeoff gamble on stacking the deck for a better shot at a yellow jersey. GC contenders as well have more likelihood/overlap of also showing up with polka-dotted or white jerseys.
At the start of any Tour de France, there are 4, maybe 5 guys who have a realistic shot of winning the whole thing, and they all ride for the teams with the absolute biggest budgets and most resources. There are maybe an additional 4 or 5 guys who have a realistic shot of making the final podium. Some of these 8-10 guys are probably on the same team (eg, Dumoulin and Roglic this year, Froome/Thomas/Bernal in the past).
So of the 20 teams that start to the Tour, about 12-15 or so know for a fact at the start that they cannot win the overall, so have to come up with some other way to get on tv and please their sponsors. For low-budget teams (like B&B Hotels this year) that can be as simple as putting a guy in the break for the day. They know he won't win, but his sponsor's name is on the tv for 3 hours in the middle of the afternoon throughout France.
For medium budget teams, it makes sense to hire a sprinter who can win those flat stages (there's always 5 or 6 flat stages at each TdF, and if your sprinter can get over a couple of hills like a Peter Sagan, that can be 7 or 8 total), and build your team around supporting that guy. Those sprinters are usually bigger guys who make their name and their living the rest of the year winning tough races with lots of pushing and shoving and crosswinds and steep cobbled climbs in Belgium and Holland and northern France.
But even with the sprinters, there's only 4 or 5 of them to win the handful of stages, and when one sprinter like a Cavendish or Kittel has a hot year and wins 3 or 4 of them, there's not much left for anyone else. And that's why a team like Sunweb worked out that their sprinter, Cees Bol, wasn't at the races this year, so they would need to create other opportunities on the transition stages for their other riders like Hirschi and Kragh Anderson.