I truly think it's any second. Specialized has their SWORKS Aethos Red AXS from $12,500 to $8500 which is a cool $4K so I think every company is preparing for the new Red. My quick take is that Red AXS D2 will look better and probably take the cake for the lightest electronic 12 speed groupset period, I think the change to mineral oil will not happen because Rival AXS D1 and especially Force AXS D2 that was just refreshed in March 2023 didn't go to mineral oil, so having one groupset use mineral oil while the rest use DOT makes zero sense. As per the front derailleur performance in terms of drops, my opinion nothing changes from Force AXS D2. You got to remember Force D2 FD has the latest design to reduce chain rub and produce quieter shift. The stiffer cage for D2 was supposed to equal less drops, but I have a Force D2 FD and I have had 2 drops already. Luckily these came at low speeds and I have a chain catcher on my bike. Point being I don't think the Red D2 FD will be any different from the Force D2 FD besides build materials for weight and design