I think wholesalers here probably don't have much to worry about in the next few years as we've been very, very slow to embrace online purchasing or mail order, but the reality is that there are just too many people that have their hands in the cookie jar and I think it's just a matter of time before bike shops just become bike repair shops. Obviously this is something I think about a fair bit, but I also wonder just how much of the Aussie bike wholesale business is propped up by 'bro deals' and 'people with more money than brains'?
The other thing that concerns me, is my ability to offer complete bike packages. I have very few OEM accounts because I can't order the types of quantites most OEMs want, but even if I did, the prices on some of these mail order places are so low, that they're not far off the pricing I can get anyway.
I can always be competitive on Answer/Manitou stuff because they've been nothing short of fantastic and will sell me any quantity of any thing at OEM pricing, but most other companies just say "Buy from your local wholesaler".
What's the point when my local wholesaler of Brand X is more expensive than PBK or CRC!?!?!?!
Sure, there's this issue of warranty, but that last thing I had a warranty issue for was for some Stans rims, and he sent me a new pair within 7 days of me lodging the claim....from the US.
I'm not anti-retail at all. I still like a good window shop, but the stark reality is that one US mail order outlet sells as much stuff as the entire Aussie bike 'industry' and has/gets better pricing than the Aussie wholesalers. Over the next 10 years, I expect there'll be quite a shift in the way everything works here in terms of the whole retail/wholesale game.