Originally Posted by Chris L
The simple fact is: it's won't happen. Just take a look at all the whining that goes on in the popular press about fuel prices for example. People are complaining everywhere that driving costs too much, but nobody stops driving. They go to ridiculous lengths to minimise the cost within that capacity -- such as trying to fill up the tank when and where they might save a few cents. Some might consider public transport as a last resort, but nobody talks about cycling. It's becoming more and more apparent everyday that the only people who will even consider transportational cycling are those who are riding recreationally already, or have some inherent desire to ride a bike.
I really don't see this changing one bit -- ever. Even when peak oil hits, cars will simply move onto other fuels. The technology is there now, the only reason they persist with oil based fuels is because they are currently cheaper than any of the alternatives. Already here in Queensland we've seen a push to use Ethanol (a by-product of sugar cane, which is grown widely here) in fuels in an effort to reduce the cost. Whether it works, who knows? In the long run they won't have much choice if the price of oil keeps rising. The motor vehicle will never disappear, it will just get more expensive. Perhaps one day we'll see fuel for cars being grown by farmers where food is now grown. That's when things could get really messy.
I think the real reason isn't that people are just too stuborn about biking, but rather that they seriously just
don't see it as a viable option. If some guy's car was broken in Manhattan, it would be an obvious second choice to public transport. If the same thing happened in Ann Arbor (semi urban) that would be a second choice that might come to mind to the guy after a few minutes or so of panicky thinking. In more suburby places it probably comes to mind (at least for semiupper middle class and above) much much later after you've worried for 10 minutes about how you will get anywhere without your car.
Now take this and make it into a bike situation - Manhattan would have the guy thinking of biking (if this guy is open to that stuff) probably just minutes after public transport (or even before). Ann Arbor? Probably biking would be thought of by 20 percent of the population and only after half an hour of "what the hell can I do!!!". Suburbia? Less than 5 percent will recognize the bike as a valid form of transport.
They simply don't have the bike in their mind as something that can be used for transport, so that is why they keep on using cars. It doesn't fully occur to them.