I think the high-end shops here will suffer. My local Performance Bike Shop (Fresno, CA) liquidated and closed last week. There are at least 2 boutique shops in high-rent shopping centers that always seem to have more employees than customers, and an awful lot of $2k-$8k bikes in inventory, and it won't surprise me if at least one of them doesn't survive 2009.

Fresno doesn't have much of a culture for cycling as transportation, other than laborers on their Magna and Next discount store bikes. Craigslist is loaded with people dumping their comfort bikes they bought last summer when gas was $4.80 here, then found out commuting was too much work, summer's to hot and winter's too cold. Soccer moms still drive their kids 2 blocks to school.

I think there's 4 Walmart and about 6 Target stores in the area. They'll keep selling bikes to the bottom feeders. Some of the LBS's that have low-to mid-level bikes might do OK, but the ones that depend on their regulars that spend $5000-$10,000 a year are going to be in trouble.