I checked with my 3 main LBS "stops" in the last few days.

They are hopeful. Wal-Mart and big box stores are having to pay closer to their prices for the bikes. The LBS's feel more competitive. My main LBS had a 7-sp "cruiser" for $269, and it's selling, especially to ladies. He's also got some of his kids bikes at $139/$149, and being that close to Wal-Mart's $79, he can pitch the quality successfully.

It's nice to know that the gap is narrowing, somewhat. He buys with a group of LBS's, and they are pooling their purchase power to get some discounts on good bikes. He feels he can turn the corner this year and become the "first stop" for more buyers.

Anyone else seeing this?

My nearest local bike shop just moved prior to Christmas, they went from a challenged space local shop to a Specialized CONcept Store, huge, in comparison, Stylish, you kind of feel you have entered an new Crate and Barrel or Anne Taylor, filled with bikes.

Will he make it? I have seen only a few "make it" the others just made a small fortune from a large one.

I think the high-end shops here will suffer. My local Performance Bike Shop (Fresno, CA) liquidated and closed last week. There are at least 2 boutique shops in high-rent shopping centers that always seem to have more employees than customers, and an awful lot of $2k-$8k bikes in inventory, and it won't surprise me if at least one of them doesn't survive 2009.

Fresno doesn't have much of a culture for cycling as transportation, other than laborers on their Magna and Next discount store bikes. Craigslist is loaded with people dumping their comfort bikes they bought last summer when gas was $4.80 here, then found out commuting was too much work, summer's to hot and winter's too cold. Soccer moms still drive their kids 2 blocks to school.

I think there's 4 Walmart and about 6 Target stores in the area. They'll keep selling bikes to the bottom feeders. Some of the LBS's that have low-to mid-level bikes might do OK, but the ones that depend on their regulars that spend $5000-$10,000 a year are going to be in trouble.

I was in my LBS the other day spending my gift certificates from Christmas and Birthday It was on the slow side, but they said they had a great December and expect things to really start rolling again come late February/March when the weather starts to warm up and people get their bikes out for the season. They have pretty much the usual mix of mid range bikes with a few of the higher end things. They have been in business for over 45 years so they aren't going anywhere soon.

Aaron

The two shops that I frequent are doing just fine. One targets the
BMX crowd, and the other specializes in High-End road bikes. Both
owners are good friends of mine. I ride and train with one, and have
worked at both. It seems that in this constantly evolving market, it
take a lot of savy marketing skills to make a go of it. They both
are doing fine because they are willing to adjust thier inventory
to meet the needs of the customer.

OBTW, they had a boom when gas was $4.30 p/gal.




JohnnyBee.

There aren't many signs of collapse here in my neck of the oods. The largest local shop is actually a local chain. The flagship store was just as crowded as it ever is in when I was in there right before Christmas. The local Performance was hopping as well.

The one shop I have concern for is a much smaller shop. Heck, the service and parts area of the largest store I go to is bigger than this entire shop. The main line of bikes is Fuji, and he has centerd the inventory from $1200 down, but has a limited chioce of the Teams and such, He also has BMX, Hybids, and MTB's. He does an awful lot of business with the police department and has a faithful "bike cop" following though. He is best known for service and being very reasonably priced for his service. I try and buy from him when ever possible for parts and accessories. His is the place where you can go and hang out and talk bikes with the owner and the wrench and spend an afternoon.

I live in Connecticut and things are a bit tough here. Two small to medium size shops have gone out of business recently. A friend of mine who is a salesman for a large bicycle parts wholesaler said that he expects more in the state to go too. A local dealer just moved into a new building just when the economy was tanking big time. A friend of mine was in his shop around Christmas time and said that for the one hour he was there, he was the only customer and the phone never rang once. It's nice to sell top brands, but bikes, like cameras, are bought with disposable income. Many of my friends and acquaintences are very concerned about losing their jobs. Independent dealers will always exist, but it is a very seasonal business even in normal times.