> Three times a week I ride about 40 km and once a week at least 100 km, sometimes much more as on a 400 km brevet. <

Let's see, that would translate as 25 miles, 63 miles, and, geez, 252 miles! I can do the first two - did three rides in one week of 63 miles or more one week.

> Normally, during the summer months on a 40 km ride I can average at least 15 mph sometimes over 16 mph. <

Well, I did 15.8 once for 26 miles so that is close, but only once. Did 14.9 once, 14.7 two or three times, so I guess you are better than I am. Also, while I have some hills I consider to be serious, I doubt they match up with your "mountainous" situation.

> I took a rest, not completely off the bike, but cutting intensity and the longer rides during the worst part of winter. My average speed started rebounding almost immediately. <

Okay, that is sorta what my plan was intended to be, once I finished my third year of riding and reached my goals. In the 8 days since the year ended, I've only done about 122 miles (38, 27, 26, 16, and 15 miles - not in that order). When finishing up my 3rd year, my lowest total in a week was 161 and usually considerably more. Plus my schedule will keep me from riding for two more days. So I'm definitely easing up.

> Go easy for a few weeks, then start back on building your intensity, though I do wonder about your not being able to complete a 1-minute interval. <

I just recently had a doctor appointment. Didn't check for anything special, but my health is considered pretty good. I take blood pressure medicine and something for chloresterol, but that's it.

Oh, one other thing, though I don't think it is a big issue. I had a cold for several months where I would be coughing a lot and sniffling, but I was still putting on those miles. Riding before sunrise meant it was cool here in Hawaii and I know the cooler air bothered me quite a bit. In fact, normally I didn't have sniffling problems until I got riding in the cool air.

Now I still have some problems - the cold is not totally gone - but it is not a big deal either. If what I have now has slowed me down, it should have been much worse before, but I was faster then.