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The looming threat of autonomous vehicles

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The looming threat of autonomous vehicles

Old 06-06-19, 12:29 PM
  #101  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
You are assuming there is a public demand for autonomous vehicles and that the manufacturers of motor vehicles see that meeting that demand will be a profitable enterprise. Who do you think is anxious to buy these vehicles with their own money? The general public? Ha, Ha!

Do you think the current customers of Uber and Lyft car services are demanding to be chauffeured in vehicles that have no human behind the wheel? Where is the benefit for the customers? Is it the sales pitch of an alleged "safer" ride?

Do you think some Venture Capitalists are willing to put up even more money to subsidize the money losing ride-share taxi operation because now their money is going to suppliers of autonomous vehicles and AV technology manufacturers instead of human drivers?

In all the hoopla about the amount of money being thrown at Uber and Lyft, that manage to lose billions of dollars a year without buying any product from the automobile manufacturers, the hypsters forget that Uber and Lyft are on the road to bankruptcy now and replacing drivers' expense with vehicle purchase, operation and maintenance expenses will only get them there sooner.
You are asking the right questions but you are still answering them from your own ( sorry ... jaded) POV. Here, let me try:

Do you think the current customers of Uber and Lyft are demanding to be chauffeured in vehicles that have no humans behind the wheel? No, not particularly, but if that is what shows up at their door... I don't think they will refuse to get in when their only other option is the train. Worse, the b-b-bus!! And, absolutely, I think that millions of people would buy AV's for the freedom from the need to be engaged with the task of driving which the majority see as a chore. Between them and Uber and Lyft and the dozens of start-up ride hailing companies that would ... start up. I expect AV technology to be as influential as the Model T was. Revolutionary in other words.

Do you think some Venture Capitalists are willing to put up even more money ...? Yes. I do. They are doing it now. When Uber and Lyft start making money ...*cough* when Uber and Lyft start buying AV's at cost with the billions that they have stashed in the Caymans they will be turning profits records that haven't been seen since ... ever. Which leads me to: why aren't you asking how it is even possible that Uber and Lyft are 'losing' so much money when they each have gross receipts of over $10 Billion and have virtually zero overhead?? It isn't Uber or Lyft that are facing bankruptcy its traditional taxi and limousine companies that are going out of business as their drivers defect and their customer bases dry up! You are betting against Uber? If you accept the loss of billions a year on the part of ride hailing companies as evidence of a failed business model and not as evidence of a criminal conspiracy, then you are likely also blind to the fact that they are not the only ones doing it. When will people wake up?

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Old 06-06-19, 12:44 PM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by wphamilton View Post
"as demand grows" does not make an assumption about demand. It means that when there are enough of those vehicles on the road, or projected to be sold, supplying hose transponders will become more viable. Here is the logic that you've evidently neglected: if there is no demand for autonomous vehicles, there is no particular risk from them and no reason to carry transponders. When there is greater demand, then supplying transponders is in the interest of auto manufacturers.

Your objection is a pointless diatribe. However, to answer your question literally, your own assumption should be auto manufacturers have a better grasp of the demand for autos than you do, having more experience, more qualifications, and stronger knowledge of the technology and market.



I don't care, and see no reason why I should care, whether Uber customers want driverless vehicles. What possible logic do you have, for demanding that? I thought you prided yourself on sound reasoning, from the basis of facts.
I am not in the least concerned about the alleged "looming threat" of autonomous cars to bicyclistsas I believe the demand for significant numbers of them, outside of day dreaming speculators in glorified taxi service, is close to non-existent. Perhaps I might feel different if I lived in the Phoenix area where the state and local government has allowed the AV promoters to use the public roads as a test track with almost no oversight of their activities.

Anyone have any reports of how the preferred passengers of the Waymo (Google) experiment in AZ would rate the experience, or if any would replace their own motor vehicle with service from a Waymo mobile?

"Demand growing"? Any serious demand for owning/buying/being chauffeured in them would be growth. Only the ride-share taxi services have shown serious interest them, but their Ponzi scheme will collapse long before they are financially able to buy and operate a fleet of of them. Google is not about to buy or operate a fleet of motor vehicles. Who is going to buy them?

The only alleged advantage of the "looming autonomous cars" appears to be an unfulfilled (and unlikely) hyped-up promise of improved safety sometime, somewhere in the future when all surface transport is directly controlled by the AV overlords.
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Old 06-06-19, 01:00 PM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm View Post
when Uber and Lyft start buying AV's at cost with the billions that they have stashed in the Caymans.

If you accept the loss of billions a year on the part of ride hailing companies as evidence of a failed business model and not as evidence of a criminal conspiracy, then you are likely also blind to the fact that they are not the only ones doing it. When will people wake up?
Wake me up with some reference to the Cayman Islands stash of Billions of Dollars of Uber and Lyft money. Are you talking about the paper wealth of the early investors that was/will be gained by selling their founder and early investor shares to other Venture Capitalists jumping on the Ponzi train. Note that not one dollar of those "gains" were derived from the operations of the company, all of it was accumulated by speculator fever on future price of the stock.

Perhaps you should also send to the appropriate government agencies whatever information you possess about an alleged criminal conspiracy that was not revealed in the IPO paperwork leading up to the sale of shares in the ride-share companies to the public.
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Old 06-06-19, 01:33 PM
  #104  
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Old 06-06-19, 01:35 PM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
I'll feel much safer when we get human driven vehicles off the road.
You ARE on a human driven vehicle.
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Old 06-06-19, 02:45 PM
  #106  
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Autonomous vehicles are hiding under my bed!

I'll believe they're ready for prime time when I actually see any of them driving around. Right now, I think we're in the 20 year period where everyone says they're five years off.
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Old 06-06-19, 02:51 PM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
I am not in the least concerned about the alleged "looming threat" of autonomous cars to bicyclistsas I believe the demand for significant numbers of them, outside of day dreaming speculators in glorified taxi service, is close to non-existent.
If you prefer a more data-driven approach rather than your belief, this isn't a bad start https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf
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Old 06-06-19, 08:19 PM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by wphamilton View Post
If you prefer a more data-driven approach rather than your belief, this isn't a bad start https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf
You are right, that article is a good start. Thanks.

It outlines many of the AV advocates' optimistic predictions (without the benefit of much, if any supporting data) about the potential benefits for individuals and the public that may occur in the future if and when significant numbers of AV's are successfully produced and used by the public for transportation purposes.

It also provides many of the credible counter arguments to every one of the optimistic predictions and rosy claims emanating from the AV promoters.

It also pointed out several shaky assumptions that are used in several of the optimistic predictions such as increased road use efficiency and passenger safety through successful "platooning" of multiple AV vehicles though communications and coordination with other AVs in the vicinity.
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Old 06-06-19, 09:54 PM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm View Post
One of the reasons that upwards of 40,000 people die every year in vehicle accidents is because people WAY underestimate how precarious their position is on the road. AV's can't take anything for granted. One of the reasons they are so safe is because they drive like an aged Grandmother taking ZERO chances that might result in a collision. Every lateral acceleration is a potential disaster and if humans understood this and reduced their lateral movements our roads would be tons safer. IF regulations mandate 3' passing distances for cyclists then the likely outcome is that AV's simply will not pass cyclists. The risk is too great. Better to slow to the cyclists speed and wait. Because humans are so used to just blasting over into the next lane and flying by cylists like they are standing still doesn't mean that AV's can or will do the same. And if cyclists cannot use shoulders or allow AV's to pass within 2' or less, then bicycles will be banned from all but the residential side streets.

Collision avoidance systems in aircraft are a mature science. Multi-million dollar aircraft with hundreds of souls onboard cannot rely on human reflexes to avoid mid-air collisions. Aircraft on a collision course can have closing speeds of well over 1,000mph. If both pilots were to panic and the pilot approaching from the East failed to move in the appropriate direction. Boom. So computers do the controlling of aircraft in close proximity to one another. The computers never panic, never forget the rules. Private aircraft don't have these systems and cannot be allowed to fly in airspaces where the big jets predominate. For AV's to really fulfill their potential they will have to communicate with one another the way aircraft do. In typical human fashion that wisdom is being resisted. AV's may not (yet) have the ability to communicate with one another but they can easily lock on to the large radio-reflective surface of another car. Bicycles with their small size and erratic movements are very much like small private aircraft in the glide path of a large metropolitan airport.
I'm not saying that after some maturing AV's won't flourish safely, but as of today, I believe you're way out over your ski tips. They are currently driven by the usual profit motive. Ask Boeing how that's working for them currently.
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Old 06-07-19, 02:34 AM
  #110  
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I agree with you
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Old 06-07-19, 09:17 AM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by bobwysiwyg View Post
I'm not saying that after some maturing AV's won't flourish safely, but as of today, I believe you're way out over your ski tips. They are currently driven by the usual profit motive. Ask Boeing how that's working for them currently.
As of today ... what about it? As of today I haven't heard of a single fatality since the jaywalker was killed ... what ... 4, 5, months ago? Do you know how many driver, pedestrian and cyclist fatalities there have been in Portland, OR alone in that time? Do you know how many hundreds of semi-supervised AV's are tooling around on the public roads in all kinds of weather and at all times of day since that time? I'm way out over my ski tips?? You may be right about the motives behind the aggressive push to get these vehicles fully authorized but it does nothing to affect the timeline of their eventual adoption. Boeing is a poor example. When 274 people perish at one time people are going to notice and react. When it happens a second time, all hell breaks loose. Even so ... are you worried about Boeing? I'm not. They will be fine, because they are too big to fail. I wouldn't worry about Uber or Lyft either. If you want to worry, then worry about what, if any, portent a future with AV's ascendant holds for non-autonomous motor vehicles and human powered vehicles that will share the road with them ... or not. That time is sooner than you think.
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Old 06-07-19, 10:13 AM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm View Post
Do you know how many hundreds of semi-supervised AV's are tooling around on the public roads in all kinds of weather and at all times of day since that time?
Semi-supervised AV's? Vehicles equipped with fancy-dancy cruise control, useful on some limited access highways are NOT the looming autonomous vehicles under discussion any more than cars equipped with automatic transmissions.

Apples and oranges; again!
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Old 06-07-19, 05:40 PM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Semi-supervised AV's? Vehicles equipped with fancy-dancy cruise control, useful on some limited access highways are NOT the looming autonomous vehicles under discussion any more than cars equipped with automatic transmissions.

Apples and oranges; again!
Nope. Those aren't the ones I am talking about. I am referring to the fully autonomous vehicles being developed by Waymo (Google) and also by Uber. I say they are under semi-supervised testing because human drivers are in their cockpits. We both know how likely it is that a disengaged human driver could come to full readiness in time to avert a real disaster. So the human pilots are there to reassure the ignorant. For all that, I am the first to admit that the AI behind these things is woefully inadequate for the task. But 40K people a year ILTB. America CANNOT continue wasting taxpayers at that clip! So over your (noted) misgivings, development and eventual adoption, ready or not, of autonomous vehicles will proceed apace.
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Old 06-07-19, 05:54 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm View Post
As of today ... what about it? As of today I haven't heard of a single fatality since the jaywalker was killed ... what ... 4, 5, months ago? Do you know how many driver, pedestrian and cyclist fatalities there have been in Portland, OR alone in that time?
You're really going out on that rhetorical limb? You do realize that the miles driven just by the drivers of Portland dwarves the number of miles driven by (semi)autonomous vehicles throughout the entire planet during the last 4-5 months. Get back to me with comparative numbers of fatalities after you've filled a few cities with these. Oh, wait, we can't, they're all going to stall out when they need to change lanes.
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Old 06-07-19, 07:21 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
You're really going out on that rhetorical limb? You do realize that the miles driven just by the drivers of Portland dwarves the number of miles driven by (semi)autonomous vehicles throughout the entire planet during the last 4-5 months. Get back to me with comparative numbers of fatalities after you've filled a few cities with these. Oh, wait, we can't, they're all going to stall out when they need to change lanes.
That is the exact same kind of thinking everyone had in the 1,900's when the horseless carriage came about... Most people would have said, it will never work, it will be a rich mans toy... it will be a fail because well, where will you get gasoline...??? where will you get someone to fix anything on it when it brakes down..??? Where can you drive it, there were no highways...
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Old 06-07-19, 07:26 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by 350htrr View Post
That is the exact same kind of thinking everyone had in the 1,900's when the horseless carriage came about... Most people would have said, it will never work, it will be a rich mans toy... it will be a fail because … well, where will you get gasoline...??? where will you get someone to fix anything on it when it brakes down..??? Where can you drive it, there were no highways...
Uhhh, no. My point was it's rather silly to claim that AVs are safer because there are so few fatalities compared to cars with drivers when there are almost no AVs operating to speak of and zillions of cars with drivers.
The point about them not coping with lane changes was that they aren't going to be dominating traffic anywhere soon.
Wanna try again?

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Old 06-07-19, 07:46 PM
  #117  
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[QUOTE=livedarklions;20968119]Uhhh, no. My point was it's rather silly to claim that AVs are safer because there are so few fatalities compared to cars with drivers when there are almost no AVs operating to speak of and zillions of cars with drivers.

Wanna try again?[/QUOTE]

Sure, How many people were killed/injured in an AV so far , caused by the AV ( and I am talking about a "true AV", not something like the Tesla, that the manufacturer stupidly calls an AV) doing the "wrong thing in a certain situation".... ??? Give me a % per mile situation... and... we can extrapolate from there the future expectations, of injuries and death in AV vehicles, which I am 100% sure will dramatically be reduced every year, by upgrades in the firmware/hardware... Un-Like the human drivers that have NOT improved over the last century, and keep on doing stupid things over and over, every generation... The only reason deaths/injuries have dropped is because of the safety "features" or, should |I say "smart features" that have started to be built into the cars of the last decade... Like... Like airbags that deploy at different intensities depending in impact severity, Like lane departure warnings, Like automatic braking, Like cruse control matching to other vehicles speed, Like a myriad other features some people on here don't seem have a clue,... that they already even exists and have already been implemented for the last decade... Implemented throughout the whole car industry, with every car/vehicle manufacturer's whole hearted participation …

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Old 06-07-19, 09:00 PM
  #118  
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[QUOTE=350htrr;20968145]
Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Uhhh, no. My point was it's rather silly to claim that AVs are safer because there are so few fatalities compared to cars with drivers when there are almost no AVs operating to speak of and zillions of cars with drivers.

Wanna try again?[/QUOTE]

Sure, How many people were killed/injured in an AV so far , caused by the AV ( and I am talking about a "true AV", not something like the Tesla, that the manufacturer stupidly calls an AV) doing the "wrong thing in a certain situation".... ??? Give me a % per mile situation... and... we can extrapolate from there the future expectations, of injuries and death in AV vehicles, which I am 100% sure will dramatically be reduced every year, by upgrades in the firmware/hardware... Un-Like the human drivers that have NOT improved over the last century, and keep on doing stupid things over and over, every generation... The only reason deaths/injuries have dropped is because of the safety "features" or, should |I say "smart features" that have started to be built into the cars of the last decade... Like... Like airbags that deploy at different intensities depending in impact severity, Like lane departure warnings, Like automatic braking, Like cruse control matching to other vehicles speed, Like a myriad other features some people on here don't seem have a clue,... that they already even exists and have already been implemented for the last decade... Implemented throughout the whole car industry, with every car/vehicle manufacturer's whole hearted participation
You are all over the place with this one. No you can't extrapolate anything from current av fatality rates because they will be encountering a huge number of situations they are largely shielded from.

and there's a world of difference between incorporating automated functions into human operation and doing away with human operation entirely. What the hell do airbags have to do with whether a car can navigate itself through traffic?

I'm not saying that we won't be seeing more autonomous vehicles eventually, just that the timetable is a lot longer than some of the people posting here seem to think. And they're definitely going to need to learn to cope with cyclists and pedestrians.
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Old 06-08-19, 02:14 PM
  #119  
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Could the last three posters please edit their posts so we can know who is being quoted? I don't know where things went off the track but it isn't that hard to fix if you spend a little time with the text editor. That said. Indeed it is possible to extrapolate from what data IS known of the safety of AV's given the mileage they have accumulated. Since they don't sleep or get tired they have been able to rack up far more miles than would be expected from any human fleet. Portland, OR as a subset of the country was not that outrageous a comparison. Anyone who imagines it will take decades to see AV's ascendant on public roads. Hmmm. Let's see ... the Wright Bros. flew in 1903 and Sopwith Camels and Fokker Triplanes were dogfighting in 1915. A Sopwith Camel and a F-16 have about as much in common as a Model T and a Lamborghini Countach but Model T's have had much more impact on the average American than any Italian Sportscar, any sportscar period. Early AV's won't be sophisticated but they will be. Did you think self-driving delivery vehicles would be making runs on public sidewalks in our lifetime? Did you think that drones that auto-track targets on the ground and WILL eventually make deliveries of food, medicine and parcels completely unsupervised ... ... yah ... DECADES. Erm... no, years. Just several years till the first prototypes hit the road. And we have ourselves to blame. No one listened when they said 'stop driving distracted'. We couldn't do that. So when they say 'stop driving ... or else'. Should be interesting.
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Old 06-08-19, 02:33 PM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm not saying that we won't be seeing more autonomous vehicles eventually, just that the timetable is a lot longer than some of the people posting here seem to think. And they're definitely going to need to learn to cope with cyclists and pedestrians.
This.
Perhaps even decades.
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Old 06-09-19, 06:58 PM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm View Post
Could the last three posters please edit their posts so we can know who is being quoted? I don't know where things went off the track but it isn't that hard to fix if you spend a little time with the text editor. That said. Indeed it is possible to extrapolate from what data IS known of the safety of AV's given the mileage they have accumulated. Since they don't sleep or get tired they have been able to rack up far more miles than would be expected from any human fleet. Portland, OR as a subset of the country was not that outrageous a comparison. Anyone who imagines it will take decades to see AV's ascendant on public roads. Hmmm. Let's see ... the Wright Bros. flew in 1903 and Sopwith Camels and Fokker Triplanes were dogfighting in 1915. A Sopwith Camel and a F-16 have about as much in common as a Model T and a Lamborghini Countach but Model T's have had much more impact on the average American than any Italian Sportscar, any sportscar period. Early AV's won't be sophisticated but they will be. Did you think self-driving delivery vehicles would be making runs on public sidewalks in our lifetime? Did you think that drones that auto-track targets on the ground and WILL eventually make deliveries of food, medicine and parcels completely unsupervised ... ... yah ... DECADES. Erm... no, years. Just several years till the first prototypes hit the road. And we have ourselves to blame. No one listened when they said 'stop driving distracted'. We couldn't do that. So when they say 'stop driving ... or else'. Should be interesting.
Yeah, no. If the cost of putting large numbers of av on the roads is banning driver vehicles, it will definitely be delayed for a long time.

And the Wright Bros. are the wrong comparison. The history of AI is replete with people making wildly early predictions, and predicting the form of the implemented version of the technology incorrectly. There was a running joke that the sentient computer was five years off for about 50 years based on predictions.
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Old 06-09-19, 08:19 PM
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AV's don't need to be sentient. My god how many problems would that cause? It'd be like that movie Dark Star all over again!
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Old 06-09-19, 11:40 PM
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Originally Posted by base2 View Post
AV's don't need to be sentient. My god how many problems would that cause? It'd be like that movie Dark Star all over again!
More like the '60's sitcom "My Mother the Car". No... maybe "Knight Rider" urgh ...
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Old 06-10-19, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by base2 View Post
AV's don't need to be sentient. My god how many problems would that cause? It'd be like that movie Dark Star all over again!
Maybe my point was too subtle--the predictions were sentient AI within 5 years. Neither the predictions of the timeline nor the actual emerging technology were correct.
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Old 06-10-19, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Maybe my point was too subtle--the predictions were sentient AI within 5 years. Neither the predictions of the timeline nor the actual emerging technology were correct.
Well, "sentient AI in 5 years" is a prediction I've never heard. But I have sat in enough panels with program directors and coders activley working on the problem to know that is the end goal if they could actually define what sentience intelligence is.

At the time I attended panels at the conventions "Deep Learning" was what the coders were working on...Probably 5-7 years ago. Now deep learning is a business model of everything from Zip Recuiter to Flickr to Facebook to Snapchat.

Here is an article I just found that summarizes quite nicely Guide to AI

In anycase, a car having an existential crisis about it's purpose in life & it not being able to fulfill it's purpose like the "smart" bomb in the movie DarkStar. I just thought was funny. Can you imaging having a philosophy discussion about the meaning of existance with your car everytime you tried to go, stop, park, do anything?...Ha!

Let's hope that will always be 5 years away!
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