HillRider

Yes, but you aren't required to play the game. You can have any degree of complexity you like and are willing to pay for. I expect bicycles will continue to evolve in more technologicaly complex and expensive ways but you can opt out at anytime.

The market for fully automatic bike transmissions and a preponderance of internal geared hubs will only happen if the commuter/utility bike becomes far more popular than at present and I don't see that happening here. Europe and Asia will lead the way and there will be some spillover in the US but not much.

noglider 

Starting at the top and sifting down to the bottom is the right way to go. I suppose Shimano learned that with Positron, the first indexing system. We looked at it as a bad thing, because only the wimps with cheap bikes had it, so we didn't want indexed shifting for ourselves. It took a long time before it became common on better bikes.

Fuji introduced their line of bikes first with the Professional model. They brought their other models later.

dabac

I looked at it as a bad thing because the performance was - well, questionable. With the indexing cam down by the RD and that push/pull single strand shifter cable I don't think I ever managed to get the shift lever to end up by the correct indicator through the whole range - which annoyed me immensely.

tjspiel

I had a Positron II shifter on my Huffy Sante Fe. I doubt it would have held up to more than just casual use but I seem to remember that it worked just fine.

HillRider

First attempts at many new technologies are flawed and, if bad enough, delay the widespread use for quite a while. Anyone else remember Cadillac's "4-6-8" V-8 engine with selective cylinder deactivation? It was so unreliable and gave the concept such a bad name that it over 20 years before anyone tried it again. Now it's getting to be common.

operator

Actually it's 1 or infinite now.

tcs

The S-A AR was +7.2%/-6.8%. That's tighter than a 12-13-14 cogset.

tcs

zoodude

yea i remember that. there was also electric cars many times over too, but the price and the silence made them uncool.

HillRider

The all-electric car has another serious and inherent flaw. The most efficient and power dense batteries available still only store the equivalent energy of about 3 gallons of gasoline and have an effective range of 100 miles at best. And, there are no known electrochemical systems waiting in the wings to change that limitation.

noglider 

There's the hydrogen fuel cell, but of course, that has other problems, cost being the primary one. We may one day make these practical, but for the time being, the all-electric car doesn't fit most Americans' needs. We like to drive long distances between refuelings, and we don't want to wait long at a refueling. It takes 5 or 10 minutes to put gasoline in the tank. It takes hours to recharge a battery. And it's impractical to swap a battery that weighs hundreds of pounds. Maybe one day, we'll have cranes that lift it out and drop a replacement in and a system for doing it quickly.

layedback1

This thread is getting quite long, so maybe I missed it. Anyone care to address the fact that the higher number of gears you have makes the chain more narrow. To me that would mean that with less bearing area on the rollers, the quicker the chain is going to wear out. The "modern" narrow chain tend to be more expensive too>

HillRider

This argument has been brought up with every chain redesign. I remember when Ultra 6/7-speed "narrow chains" were first introduced and the dire predictions of short life and frequent breakage were in every bike magazine and bike shop discussion. Better materials and improved designs have made that a non-issue so far. I suppose there is a limit but it hasn't been exceeded yet.

noglider 

I think chains are wearing out more quickly, but that doesn't seem so bad. The more you ride, the more it indicates you like cycling, which increases your willingness to spend money on replacement chains. It's not much per mile.

But I am a bit alarmed about stories of chains breaking. I think the close tolerances makes it tricky to assemble a chain properly. I'm not sure if that is causing the breakages.

Sixty Fiver

Chains usually come apart because they were improperly installed... even the cheapest of chains can take a lot of abuse and are rated for far greater loads then a human being can produce.

I like the cost effectiveness of running an 8 speed... I have three bikes set up this way and replacement parts and chains are pretty inexpensive compared to 9 speed stuff.

I have no need for 10 speed clusters and today I am going to go out and test drive the new 3 speed as I just swapped out the driver to a 20 to replace the 18 to adjust for bigger wheels.

noglider 

If the new chains are more prone to improper installation by Joe Average, I'd call that a bad trend.

I agree about 8-speed. It does seem to be a sweet spot between function and economy. But let me think about my bikes. I have seven I call my own:

1967 Hercules 3-speed
1971 Raleigh Super Course 18-speed (3x6)
1973 Raleigh Twenty (3-speed)
1982 McLean 12-speed (2x6)
1991 Cannondale MTB 21-speed (3x7)
2008 Surly Cross Check 27-speed (3x9)
2008 Nashbar SS/FG

So I have one 7-speed cluster, one 9-speed cluster, and no 8-speed clusters!

Sixty Fiver

fg, fg, fg, fg, coaster, 3 speed igh, 8 speed (2 x 4), 12 speed (2x6), 24, 24, 24, 24



The 8 speed on my 1957 Peugeot is a really pleasant drive train as the front double is a half step which mates up really nicely with the 4 speed block in the rear.

noglider 

You know, a couple of months ago, I was saying that I have five and I would not acquire any more for myself. The two 3-speeds are the latest acquisitions. I just couldn't resist. I paid $100 combined for them.

anthony_b.

....I like to vary my cadence alot. Too hard for me just to stay at one RPM. On most of my rides I stay on the larger front sprocket. I will use the smaller spocket on very steep climbs.

rm -rf

A lithium-air battery could have 5 to 10 times the capacity of current batteries. They are lighter since they use air for the reaction, and it doesn't need to be stored in the battery. They are still just theoretical, though.

And molten salt batteries running at 450 degrees (!) are fairly cheap to produce. I think there's a few experimental buses using them.

JohnDThompson 

Doesn't "more" always mean "better?" If it were not so, our economy would collapse. Umm, just a moment...

tjspiel

I agree. I'm changing out some shifters on my winter bike and it would have been easier for me to get 9 speed, but I kept looking for an 8 speed solution for that very reason.

The chain on my road bike has an easier life so I'm OK with more gears on that.

Kimmo

The close-ratio Sturmeys are like hen's teeth, aren't they?

Al1943

Yes, but electric shifting does not make it an automatic transmission.

HillRider

That's correct and Shimano has specifically stated they did NOT want to make Di2 an automated transmission.

However, the potential is certainly there. Some additional programming and sensors could provide a completely sequential gear selection and it could be tied to pedal pressure, cadence or what ever parameters they wanted to measure and incorporate.

Al1943

I think cadence would be the best determinant. And it would need to be as light as the upper end groups to be competitive.