Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman (Post 20189111)

OK, we'll do it.

And here's how we'll do it: everyone who wants to donate their $10 card to the raffle can PM me, and I will make a list. On or about 15 March 2018, I'll print out the handles of everyone who's entered on a piece of paper and have my lovely assistant pull one name out of a hat, old-school. If you are donating more than one card, you'll get more than one piece of paper with your handle on it. My name will not be in the hat. As a bonus, I will toss in a gift certificate for a free night at my hotel -- knowing it may never actually get redeemed; see my post above :)

I'll PM the winner, who can give me his or her address which I will forward to the card donors who will mail the cards to the winner. Or if the cards can be re-gifted electronically, we'll do it that way; whichever the participating donors prefer.

Sound good? Who's in? PM me, or post it up here.

Originally Posted by cdmurphy (Post 20189125)

I'm a bit conflicted in my views on Rivendell. I think they serve an important market, I'm just not sure it's particularly viable from a business sense, and particularly trying to keep it running in the bay area. I don't know what their rent / labor / utilities / insurance overhead is, other than it's probably double what it would be in other areas of the country. That is a pretty tough hurdle to overcome when, ultimately, all online retailers are fighting against Amazon. It's no accident their prices are 2x what you can find stuff for elsewhere. The only way that works is if you are selling something unique, that can't be sourced elsewhere. Other than their frames, I just don't see what they're selling that can't be bought elsewhere, or at least something pretty close.

There is also the problem that ultimately, their suggestions as to what you really need in a bike is about 95% in line with "buy an old mountain bike, and put some townie bars on it" Sure, their bikes have lugs and much better paint, but when you get down to it, they're competing directly against a $100 used MTB, with another $100-$200 in tires and parts. There are plenty of folks that want "A Rivendell", or aren't comfortable converting an old bike, but the fact that a converted MTB checks most of the boxes means that $300 bike is always there, keeping their prices suppressed. The Treks / Specializeds / Giants of the world don't have that problem. They've pretty successfully pushed the idea that you need more gears, and more carbon to be happy. There isn't any $300 equivalent of their $5,000 carbon sleds keeping their sales and prices down. (Personally, I think most of the race oriented crowd has been hoodwinked, but there are enough of them that the big guys don't need to worry about old bikes.)

I wouldn't mind having a Rivendell, I just can't see ever buying one, when vintage road bikes, or converted MTBs deliver so much, for so little. (Which really is the essence of their problem, in a business sense.)

All that being said, I have bought a few hail Mary's. I learned a ton from Grant via his website and Rivendell Readers when I was first starting out, and that's worth a lot to me. I don't agree with all his views, especially regarding tires, trail and frame stiffness, but there's still a lot to like.

Originally Posted by cdmurphy (Post 20189125)

It's no accident their prices are 2x what you can find stuff for elsewhere. The only way that works is if you are selling something unique, that can't be sourced elsewhere. Other than their frames, I just don't see what they're selling that can't be bought elsewhere, or at least something pretty close.

Originally Posted by repechage (Post 20189564)

The subtext is that Grant and Paul Manafort have something in common- no more bankers to bail them out. And Grant cannot offer a Sec. Of The Army position either.
Bicycles are near adventure capitalism. The gift card play is novel, I would take it seriously if it included an "interest" component of higher face value upon redemption.
Grant needs an investor, one with more sophisticated business skills. I see an asset sale down the road.

Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman (Post 20189614)

From what I've read, Manafort was clearly defrauding bankers, laundering money more or less stolen (not delivering what he promised) from Russian-backed Ukraine political interests in shady deals by funneling it though his domestic real estate investments.

As I understand it, Grant's main crime is attempting to sell bicycles and accessories, and despite his rather high prices, not consistently making enough profit to pay all the bills.

So yeah, same deal, you pretty much nailed it. :)

Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman (Post 20189614)

From what I've read, Manafort was clearly defrauding bankers, laundering money more or less stolen (not delivering what he promised) from Russian-backed Ukraine political interests in shady deals by funneling it though his domestic real estate investments.

As I understand it, Grant's main crime is attempting to sell bicycles and accessories, and despite his rather high prices, not consistently making enough profit to pay all the bills.

So yeah, same deal, you pretty much nailed it. :)

Originally Posted by repechage (Post 20189980)

Lots of models with very slight change of purpose. To me it looks like it has been a rough go for a while, searching for a wider client base. Always capital risky.

Originally Posted by Steve Whitlatch (Post 20189984)

Socialist are the most mean spirited people I encounter. Without corporations making profit, you would have no bikes.

Originally Posted by prathmann (Post 20190101)

Yes, we certainly will never get any bicycles from the socialist economies of France, Italy, England, or Japan. Nor does socialism lead to the demise of corporations.

Originally Posted by prathmann (Post 20190101)

Yes, we certainly will never get any bicycles from the socialist economies of France, Italy, England, or Japan. Nor does socialism lead to the demise of corporations.

Originally Posted by cb400bill (Post 20190176)

Let's leave the political and social commentary out of C&V.

'K thanks.

Originally Posted by gomango (Post 20189913)

As I ponder this situation GP finds himself in atm, I think he could look at efficiencies used by Mike Varley at Black Mountain Cycles.

Mike comes up with a winning formula of putting out small batches of framesets that feature versatility in their dna.

He doesn't offer loads of framesets that, at times, resemble bikes we can pick up at garage sales for el-cheapo prices.

He does a nice road frame and a monstercross that are a blast to ride.

They are priced right at about $600 or so.

That's part of the Rivendell problem. He's got loads of overhead with inventory. It simply isn't turning fast enough.

Another thing Mike does well is his small bike shop in Pt. Reyes.

I was thoroughly impressed when my wife and I visited the area last year and stopped by his shop.

There were loads of tourers and mtb'ers hanging outside and Mike was working his tail off repairing a couple of their bikes with issues.

No massive inventory in sight, just the goodies needed to keep folks on the road.

No hatchets, bars of soap and expensive work shirts.

I think GP could focus on a lean line up that features bikes people really want.

I would keep an Atlantis all arounder, a real rando machine modeled on an Ebisu quality level/price point, a practical lower cost city bike, a modern version of the XO-1, a Hunqapillar and perhaps a Quickbeam.

Keep the prices down, stop model name changes that people can't keep up with, keep inventory tight and make sure staffing is kept at a sustainable level in the shop.

Just my 2 cents.....

Originally Posted by lubloi (Post 20190348)

The way I see it, Rivendell's niche is very similar to Jan Heine's. How come one has cash flow problems, and the other is (or seems to be) doing fine?

Originally Posted by gomango (Post 20190047)

Yes, that's quite true.

As an aside, I am shopping for a new city bike for my wife.

Nothing fancy mind you.

I was at a local shop yesterday and they reported selling four bikes in four hours.

Every bike sold was the new Surly Midnight Special or a Salsa Fargo.

Each was less than $2,000 and each featured the ability to run very wide tires.

Decent all road bikes. imho

I find it hard to believe GP couldn't figure out how to do this if he focused on trends just a bit.

Originally Posted by gugie (Post 20190497)

For those of you who haven't been following Rivendell closely, this ain't the first time they've had money problems. At the very beginning Grant sold stock at $1 a share to friends. I'm not sure what they got out of it.

What's the difference between Grant/Rivendell and George Bailey/Savings and Loan?

Lot of people here helping out George, a few Potters have chipped in.

Grant's a few years older than me, which means he's probably not very far from a retirement. He's already stated that he's thinking of how to keep Rivendell around when he's gone. They've discussed moving the company to Southern Oregon, which would cut costs. There's also thinking of a "succession" plan. Maybe the new decision maker(s) will start looking at Rivendell more as a business. Something tells me, however, that part of the appeal of Rivendell is the quixotic nature of their business. People want to believe that everything mainstream is a conspiracy to take money out of our pockets without regard to the value of what's returned. Maybe people are right.

Many of those that consider themselves part of the Elfdom seem to believe everything that comes out on the Blahg. Doesn't that just replace the believe that bike should be as light as possible, disc brakes are for every day riding, and carbon fiber is the ultimate in frame material?

I think many of us just root for a guy who's willing to go against the mainstream.