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Has demand dropped?

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Has demand dropped?

Old 09-03-23, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by tmnguuyen
E-bike is killing the CV market. Check out the photo below - not quite clear since I took the photo in a moving train but even the surfer dudes are riding e-bikes.

Originally Posted by Piff
Funny, I see so many people with ebikes but I don't actually know anyone directly who owns one. It certainly is amazing how they've taken the world by storm. I hope to see it translate into fewer automobiles used for transit.
Originally Posted by gearbasher
I have to disagree with you. This is from a cyclist's point of view. I've had more near accidents with the E-holes in the past year than I've had with automobiles in the 50+ years I've been riding. It is totally ridiculous around here. Throw in the people riding the gas-powered "motorcycles" with no license, registration or insurance, it's getting dangerous.
Originally Posted by bark_eater
Next thing will be to ban all unregistered and unlicenced "vehicles" from the public roads. Bicycles included....

Dystopian? Yes. Without precedent? No.

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Originally Posted by georges1
I have looked around me in my town but most of people ride traditional bikes. A lot of road bikes even though some with sram etap or di2 but for the rest mountain bikes or city bikes. An Ebike is a bad bike, it is not very manoeuvrable,it is heavy and the brakes are not well optimized for optimal braking plus it is expensive.
The cost savings of no car are astronomical.

Read a Readers Digest article many years ago.

The average person spends 40% of their life's earnings on personal transportation if they choose to drive a car, I would suspect it may be more now.

More than housing, healthcare or education, by far in many cases.

And no, I'm certainly not advocating efbikes per se but the draw for noncycling folks can be huge for the savings, especially if you lose your license or insurance.

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Old 09-03-23, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by gearbasher
I have to disagree with you. This is from a cyclist's point of view. I've had more near accidents with the E-holes in the past year than I've had with automobiles in the 50+ years I've been riding. It is totally ridiculous around here. Throw in the people riding the gas-powered "motorcycles" with no license, registration or insurance, it's getting dangerous.
I think it's likely that regulations will be passed soon. It's like the free for all that was with 'therapy animals' where the only requirement needed to bring one's (sometimes poorly trained) pet wherever you wanted was to say it was an emotional support animal. It took a few years, but now there are thankfully some rules pushing back against people abusing what should have been a wholly positive change for those who actually need an emotional support animal.
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Old 09-03-23, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by merziac
The cost savings of no car are astronomical.

Read a Readers Digest article many years ago.

The average person spends 40% of their life's earnings on personal transportation if they choose to drive a car, I would suspect it may be more now.

More than housing, healthcare or education, by far in many cases.

And no, I'm certainly not advocating efbikes per se but the draw for noncycling folks can be huge for the savings, especially if you lose your license or insurance.

You know, when I first read your post, I was completely inclined to disagree with you. And then I started thinking of someone I know at work that just got a new truck, and hearing that their monthly car payment is $1400. A month!

So yes, It probably is a thing, after all! We have made the decision to buy our vehicles in cash, every time. It means we are priced out of the new and nearly-new car market by a long shot, but we make do and not having a payment that is close to or more than our mortgage is a lovely thing.

Hearing that people easily choose to spend that on a car, or $3000 on an e-bike, really puts into perspective my balking in my own mind about a $100 bike that I think should be $50
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Old 09-03-23, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ehcoplex
Tangential to the current discussion, I suppose, but I wonder how a 50-year-old carbon fiber frame would hold up against a 50-year-old steel frame…?
^^^^^^

Even is you disregard the physical longevity of carbon, the fact is, carbon bikes just do not age well at all. There is something aesthetically off-putting.

Secondly, all of these “e-bikes” are destined for the dump when a replacement batter cannot be sourced in the future and those are especially hideous looking frames.

Finally - and this is just anecdotal, but every time I ride into my local bike shop with one of my steel bikes, the employees get super geeked out about the bike even though they are selling all the newest and greatest tech, and I think there always be a market (even amongst the younger set) for truly mechanical and simple bones that are also beautiful to look at.
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Old 09-03-23, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by AdventureManCO
You know, when I first read your post, I was completely inclined to disagree with you. And then I started thinking of someone I know at work that just got a new truck, and hearing that their monthly car payment is $1400. A month!

So yes, It probably is a thing, after all! We have made the decision to buy our vehicles in cash, every time. It means we are priced out of the new and nearly-new car market by a long shot, but we make do and not having a payment that is close to or more than our mortgage is a lovely thing.

Hearing that people easily choose to spend that on a car, or $3000 on an e-bike, really puts into perspective my balking in my own mind about a $100 bike that I think should be $50
Like I said, likely way more now days.

I know that being a lifelong and professional mech/tech/hack, etc. have saved us a fortune, coupled with CFO Ms. merziac's impeccable financial acumen, we are far better off than we could/should be.

I am a died in the wool car guy but fully realized a long time ago that I could make and save $$$$$$ working on them instead of trying to impress people with them which as especially you and I know is a fools errand.
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Old 09-03-23, 01:44 PM
  #131  
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Originally Posted by Het Volk
^^^^^^

Even is you disregard the physical longevity of carbon, the fact is, carbon bikes just do not age well at all. There is something aesthetically off-putting.

Secondly, all of these “e-bikes” are destined for the dump when a replacement batter cannot be sourced in the future and those are especially hideous looking frames.

Finally - and this is just anecdotal, but every time I ride into my local bike shop with one of my steel bikes, the employees get super geeked out about the bike even though they are selling all the newest and greatest tech, and I think there always be a market (even amongst the younger set) for truly mechanical and simple bones that are also beautiful to look at.
The Ef batt's will be the death of us all.

Strip mine the whole planet now for the raw materials, nasty, dirty, carbon footprint of them is staggering.

Then wait for the spent ones to catch on fire or contaminate everything in the end, nasty, deadly toxicity is also even more staggering.

They are going to get us coming and going.
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Old 09-03-23, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by merziac
The Ef batt's will be the death of us all.

Strip mine the whole planet now for the raw materials, nasty, dirty, carbon footprint of them is staggering.

Then wait for the spent ones to catch on fire or contaminate everything in the end, nasty, deadly toxicity is also even more staggering.

They are going to get us coming and going.
Meh.
Mostly the mines are already in operation extracting minerals already there for all sorts of uses. Batteries are just one thing made. Would you rather they put the lithium back? Where would they put it? Might as well make a battery or 2 before recycling the refined materials it into something else
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Old 09-03-23, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by merziac
The Ef batt's will be the death of us all.

Strip mine the whole planet now for the raw materials, nasty, dirty, carbon footprint of them is staggering.

Then wait for the spent ones to catch on fire or contaminate everything in the end, nasty, deadly toxicity is also even more staggering.

They are going to get us coming and going.
That was my original opinion of solar panels. I haven't done any research, but I think the technologies have matured a bit to be more sustainable. Hopefully batteries will improve before hitting "Peak Bad idea".
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Old 09-03-23, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by base2
Meh.
Mostly the mines are already in operation extracting minerals already there for all sorts of uses. Batteries are just one thing made. Would you rather they put the lithium back? Where would they put it? Might as well make a battery or 2 before recycling the refined materials it into something else
No meh about it, the mines are going far deeper and wider than the planet and workers can sustain and no we can't put it back.

The ferocity and zeal they are continuing to ramp up will not go any more well as it escalates, the existing mines are and will not produce the amount needed to try and satiate the greedy soulless companies and stockholders, they will be happy to bury us when we get in the way for not getting on board.

The recycling will not go well either, more dirty, nasty far less profitable work they will not be held accountable for or be made to facilitate let alone truly help with until it benefits and is profitable them.

It needs to be a cradle to grave cycle to cause it to be sustainable as well as profitable, its a runaway train now and we're tied to the tracks.
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Old 09-03-23, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Het Volk
^^^^^^

Even is you disregard the physical longevity of carbon, the fact is, carbon bikes just do not age well at all. There is something aesthetically off-putting.

Secondly, all of these “e-bikes” are destined for the dump when a replacement batter cannot be sourced in the future and those are especially hideous looking frames.

Finally - and this is just anecdotal, but every time I ride into my local bike shop with one of my steel bikes, the employees get super geeked out about the bike even though they are selling all the newest and greatest tech, and I think there always be a market (even amongst the younger set) for truly mechanical and simple bones that are also beautiful to look at.
Much like taking a vintage Porsche to a dealer or a collectors Rolex to a jeweler the validation is gratifying and ego stroking. However these people aren’t buying C&V bikes but view them as interesting curiosity, the demand and market clearly supports this. Go to any vintage ride and check out the demographics.
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Old 09-03-23, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by bark_eater
That was my original opinion of solar panels. I haven't done any research, but I think the technologies have matured a bit to be more sustainable. Hopefully batteries will improve before hitting "Peak Bad idea".
They're improving but are still pretty crude and very labor intensive to recycle, the Fed has mandated more robust and efficient panels so they are better but the cost has gone up of course.

The batteries are improving all the time and are amazing but its still partly from more, better raw materials that there will not be enough of in the long run and are being gobbled up at a huge cost in every way.
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Old 09-03-23, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Het Volk
^^^^^^

Even is you disregard the physical longevity of carbon, the fact is, carbon bikes just do not age well at all. There is something aesthetically off-putting.

Secondly, all of these “e-bikes” are destined for the dump when a replacement batter cannot be sourced in the future and those are especially hideous looking frames.

Finally - and this is just anecdotal, but every time I ride into my local bike shop with one of my steel bikes, the employees get super geeked out about the bike even though they are selling all the newest and greatest tech, and I think there always be a market (even amongst the younger set) for truly mechanical and simple bones that are also beautiful to look at.
The battery life is certainly a factor I would worry about with an e-bike. If they're anything like cellphone batteries, they have a limited lifespan and number of recharges. I know that even after 6 or 7 years, my phone battery has much less life than it once did.

It also depends on the shop you bring your bike to. I remember stopping at a bike shop in DC once and being rather sharply ridiculed by the "regulars" for going about on a Raleigh 3-speed. After a few pointed jokes at the expense of my bike, they told me to "get a real bike". I never brought my business there again.

Another bike shop close by on the same street treated me a lot better. The owner there was a nice guy and very understanding of old bikes.
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Old 09-03-23, 08:38 PM
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I was thinking of downsizing the other day. So, I put 30 bikes in my front yard. $1500 Treks, $1000 road bikes, $750 trail bikes, $100 kids bikes. A guy stopped by with his son. The man started at the high end eyeing the Campy stuff. The boy was all over a $500 Mongoose that was perfect. I told him a LBS would ask $250. Since I was no longer in business I wanted $125. Then $100. Later I asked him to make an offer. I had just put two kevlar tires on it ($40), and probably would have sold it for $50 but he drove off and didn't even call.
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Old 09-03-23, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Atlas Shrugged
Much like taking a vintage Porsche to a dealer or a collectors Rolex to a jeweler .
the problem is ... in either case.. they may admire but they cannot fix 'em.

/markp
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Old 09-03-23, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by AdventureManCO
You know, when I first read your post, I was completely inclined to disagree with you. And then I started thinking of someone I know at work that just got a new truck, and hearing that their monthly car payment is $1400. A month!

So yes, It probably is a thing, after all! We have made the decision to buy our vehicles in cash, every time. It means we are priced out of the new and nearly-new car market by a long shot, but we make do and not having a payment that is close to or more than our mortgage is a lovely thing.

Hearing that people easily choose to spend that on a car, or $3000 on an e-bike, really puts into perspective my balking in my own mind about a $100 bike that I think should be $50
Vehicle payments nowadays, especially trucks with how expensive they have become, are downright criminal. $1400 was the gross total of my rent, utilities and off street parking privelege/"rent" in freaking Seattle proper. Housing needs a solid 40% correction to be normal again, at least. It's all absolute insanity. A $1500-2000 ebike is a great way to crush the game, much as I dislike the lack of lawful and/or courteous riding in cases. I went and bought a 25 year old truck this year, for legit (and enthusiast) reasons, for easily 1/10th of a semi-nicely-equipped new diesel rig. Is it slower than a Toyota Prius? You bet. Does it "only" tow a little over 8,000 lbs? Sure. But is it paid for, with cash? You bet yer a$$. Dead nuts simple with a manual transmission. Somehow doesn't even leak, or consume oil. The only thing it can't do is buzz the tower of all the comatose drivers who can't get within 3/4 of the speed limit anywhere.

But I'm not upset at all about that....

Back to bikes. Spendy Di2 is great stuff, but man is the cheaper silver stuff still so great. Good thing I can make the money I spent on that back! I like the price of 9- and 10-speed chains.
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Old 09-03-23, 11:06 PM
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Originally Posted by merziac
They're improving but are still pretty crude and very labor intensive to recycle, the Fed has mandated more robust and efficient panels so they are better but the cost has gone up of course.

The batteries are improving all the time and are amazing but its still partly from more, better raw materials that there will not be enough of in the long run and are being gobbled up at a huge cost in every way.
The ebike and car lithium battery conversation is another multi-hour affair, but with regard to ebikes, the lack of standards employed in this early "wild west" chapter of ebike development and sales will make it a nightmare at best to service when all of these proprietary setups fade in power and range. I see gen Z and future generations being considerably more predisposed to solving this in a number of creative and effective ways thanks to their growing up in this time and being exposed to it. Being an early Millennial without the computer/coding inclination or chops, it won't be me, but it will be those after me. I've already seen it, selling a Campagnolo Athena 10-speed EPS (electronic shifting) groupset to an engineering student at UW. I told him the lithium battery was next to useless from sitting on a shelf for 5 years as a "new" battery, but showed him some photos and promotional material (ghosted images from Campy advertising the battery/brain unit construction) and he was able to swap out the dead-yet-standard cylindrical lithium-ion batteries for new ones. Freaking awesome.
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Old 09-04-23, 06:48 AM
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Some of the posts here mention the problems with e-bikes and the lack of standardization of components. VanMoof in Denmark just went bankrupt. They designed their own components, which now leaves VanMoof owners stranded when they break. Who needs that?

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Old 09-04-23, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by cycleheimer
Some of the posts here mention the problems with e-bikes and the lack standardization of components. VanMoof in Denmark just went bankrupt. They designed their own components, which now leaves VanMoof owners stranded when they break. Who needs that?
VanMoof was bought out:
https://www.theverge.com/23822598/va...-lavoie-bought
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Old 09-04-23, 09:55 AM
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So we’re all in agreement that both electric and fossil fuel modes of transportation should be abandoned asap, right?
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Old 09-04-23, 11:35 AM
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This thread is jumping around a bit but its a good topic and where dealers should be listening.

Couple of things, and thinking about these dealers. Fly on the bus to a major show convention for bike dealers / industry: Entire talk was about what makers have the best motors and watts. Zero about the market or pedal bikes.

What's been driving the E bike sales in the US is buyers tax credits.

BTW: If you recall the proposed tariff on imported e-bikes, it didn't happen because there's no e-bikes made in US, so where's the competition debate? Lol. Virtually all e-bikes are Asian made, by far the most made in China.

E bike users on the city are already weaning off them. Apartment , condo regs are banning. Vandalism, almost zero replacement parts let alone find a dealer capable of repairing. Frustration especially after paying the high cost for these bikes.

Society: Major metropolitan areas with investments in beautiful hiking and biking trail systems, network into city, suburbs to state and county parks. The use of them is way under utilized / percentage of users for its population. Its so bad in one collar county of Chicago, they just introduced a promo of earning a medallion for completion on walking its trails.

Lastly, I recently offered to gift a really nice, upper end model all chrome mid-school BMX to a nephew. He has zero interest and no desire to ride a bike. Kid is glued to his phone.
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Old 09-04-23, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by chain_whipped
This thread is jumping around a bit but its a good topic and where dealers should be listening.

Couple of things, and thinking about these dealers. Fly on the bus to a major show convention for bike dealers / industry: Entire talk was about what makers have the best motors and watts. Zero about the market or pedal bikes.

What's been driving the E bike sales in the US is buyers tax credits.

BTW: If you recall the proposed tariff on imported e-bikes, it didn't happen because there's no e-bikes made in US, so where's the competition debate? Lol. Virtually all e-bikes are Asian made, by far the most made in China.

E bike users on the city are already weaning off them. Apartment , condo regs are banning. Vandalism, almost zero replacement parts let alone find a dealer capable of repairing. Frustration especially after paying the high cost for these bikes.

Society: Major metropolitan areas with investments in beautiful hiking and biking trail systems, network into city, suburbs to state and county parks. The use of them is way under utilized / percentage of users for its population. Its so bad in one collar county of Chicago, they just introduced a promo of earning a medallion for completion on walking its trails.

Lastly, I recently offered to gift a really nice, upper end model all chrome mid-school BMX to a nephew. He has zero interest and no desire to ride a bike. Kid is glued to his phone.

It sucks we have to even consider e-bikes in a C&V forum, but they are really impacting the future not only for C&V bikes, but even new analog bikes.

The most carbon neutral form of transportation (if policy makers and politicians cared) as well as adding benefit to the health of the population are used mechanical bikes. But tax credits for buying used bikes would not propagate fly-by-night e-bike manufacturers and retailers who most likely will be long gone once these contraptions need repairs or replacement parts.


However, and maybe this is only solace for those of us who are younger and just really getting into this, but if this demand shift is really the start of a long-term decline, it bodes well for those of us just entering the accumulation phase.

Last edited by Het Volk; 09-04-23 at 12:15 PM.
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Old 09-04-23, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by gearbasher
Being bought out does not necessarily mean that the existing customer base is not going to be hung out to dry.



it very well could be that they were able to discharge most liabilities including any customer prepayments and or any warranty obligations, while getting all the rights to the patents and designs.
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Old 09-04-23, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jethin
So we’re all in agreement that both electric and fossil fuel modes of transportation should be abandoned asap, right?
Well we obviously can't do that but the fix would be to hold companies, corporations and stockholders fully accountable.

They have been benefiting from just the profit for too long, especially now that we seem to be at a tipping point in many aspects.

Like I said, cradle to grave, make them responsible for the whole revenue stream including waste and disposal.

Of course they will never sit still for that but moving forward the tech could be tied down if we really wanted to.
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Old 09-04-23, 12:22 PM
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VanMoof




And also - I know bikes all eventually need servicing, but outside of a new tire, chain, bar tape and brake pads (and replacement cleats for shoes) none of my bikes have needed spare parts and they are almost all over 10 years since I acquired them.

I really wish there was a way to get it across the general public that adding complexity to a bike does not in fact make them more enjoyable to ride, but in fact make them more frustrating to own.
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Old 09-04-23, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Het Volk



And also - I know bikes all eventually need servicing, but outside of a new tire, chain, bar tape and brake pads (and replacement cleats for shoes) none of my bikes have needed spare parts and they are almost all over 10 years since I acquired them.

I really wish there was a way to get it across the general public that adding complexity to a bike does not in fact make them more enjoyable to ride, but in fact make them more frustrating to own.
So that places you in the Penny Farthing camp I guess.

We should change this thread to “Reasons for Old Men to yell at Clouds”
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