Collection Intervention?
08-31-12 | 01:03 PM
#51
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From: Catskills/Brooklyn, NY
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I agree. If I wanted them (all?!) for myself, $10-15k maybe. If I wanted to sell most and keep a few, $7 or 8k.
They don't fit me and I don't have ten grand laying around doing nothing, so it's academic to me anyway.
They don't fit me and I don't have ten grand laying around doing nothing, so it's academic to me anyway.
08-31-12 | 01:27 PM
#52
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The entire collection would have to be repacked, even if handled as a local pickup. I'm assuming that the bikes are not wrapped and I would want each bike protected. The boxes are too large to ship via UPS/Fedex which I'm sure we C&V'ers have figured out. Many of the bikes probably need tires. More expense which reduces the selling price. This collection will probably be sold after some intense back and forth between the seller and a few interested buyers.
08-31-12 | 01:49 PM
#53
Fat Guy on a Little Bike
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From: Philadelphia, PA
Bikes: Two wheeled ones
As per the seller, these bikes have been sitting in a warehouse for a few years. I suspect, when all is said and done, they'll be sitting for a few more years. Seller doesn't seem ready to face the market and I predict a longgggg, slowwww, Dutch auction.
1. bike sizes aren't ideal.
2. You are at a disadvantage if you're selling something you don't know much about. You don't get fair offers with lazy ads like that. Most of the bikes aren't photo'd and have descriptions like "Shimano crank".
3. The number of people who can store and ship this number of bikes is limited.
1. bike sizes aren't ideal.
2. You are at a disadvantage if you're selling something you don't know much about. You don't get fair offers with lazy ads like that. Most of the bikes aren't photo'd and have descriptions like "Shimano crank".
3. The number of people who can store and ship this number of bikes is limited.
08-31-12 | 02:24 PM
#54
Vello Kombi, baby
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From: Je suis ici
Bikes: 1973 Eisentraut; 1970s Richard Sachs; 1978 Alfio Bonnano; 1967 Peugeot PX10
I think this is a seller that wants absolute top of the market prices (at 55cm) and wants someone else to do all the heavy work if they are to be sold individually. In fact, he seems to want the buyer to do all the heavy work if bought from him. This makes the equation not add up.
The seller is not the collector, I think. The seller may have watched too much "Pickers" or something. He'll get somewhere in the vicinity of 12-18k selling them individually. Maybe.
The seller is not the collector, I think. The seller may have watched too much "Pickers" or something. He'll get somewhere in the vicinity of 12-18k selling them individually. Maybe.
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08-31-12 | 02:35 PM
#55
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Actually I think the seller may be the storage company that has not been paid for years of storage, and may be owed this much in back fees. I agree they won't get a bid. If we use Aaron's estimates, $9K represents a 50% discount which is not bad for someone interested in the bikes, has time and space to store them, etc.
BTW, I agree with his estimates except for Steve Rex, which is instructive. Steve Rex is a Sacramento based framebuilder who builds with steel, stainless steel and carbon and won an award in the latest NAHBS show. He is highly regarded and you always see several of his bikes ridden in double centuries or brevets around here. Yet he may not be known much outside Northern California, sort of how someone on this coast could value a Bilenky.
BTW, I agree with his estimates except for Steve Rex, which is instructive. Steve Rex is a Sacramento based framebuilder who builds with steel, stainless steel and carbon and won an award in the latest NAHBS show. He is highly regarded and you always see several of his bikes ridden in double centuries or brevets around here. Yet he may not be known much outside Northern California, sort of how someone on this coast could value a Bilenky.
08-31-12 | 02:37 PM
#56
KingoftheMountain wannabe
Joined: Sep 2006
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From: Independence, Oregon
Bikes: V.O. Pass Hunter & Specialized Hardrock
I personally hope these either don't sell and the seller gets fed up or a buyer comes in and tries to flip 'em. Both of them give up trying to make money and just wants to get rid of them and puts them on the market as individual bikes, flooding the market.
The bikes go dirt cheap, and I pick a few bikes up for steeply discounted prices.
My dream, doubt it will happen, but I can wish.
The bikes go dirt cheap, and I pick a few bikes up for steeply discounted prices.
My dream, doubt it will happen, but I can wish.
08-31-12 | 02:57 PM
#57
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From: Costa Mesa CA
While we were being smart, somebody swooped in and bought the entire batch for $30,000.00 Dubble-You-Tee-Eff!?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/320973544308...84.m1423.l2649
https://www.ebay.com/itm/320973544308...84.m1423.l2649
08-31-12 | 03:15 PM
#58
Fat Guy on a Little Bike
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From: Philadelphia, PA
Bikes: Two wheeled ones
WOW...someone clearly disagrees with my estimate, or doesn't care that he's paying a premium for bikes that should be discounted. He's in at over $1,000/bike.
08-31-12 | 03:32 PM
#60
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the cynic in me says wait and see if money really gets exchanged
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08-31-12 | 03:44 PM
#61
Vello Kombi, baby
Joined: Dec 2002
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From: Je suis ici
Bikes: 1973 Eisentraut; 1970s Richard Sachs; 1978 Alfio Bonnano; 1967 Peugeot PX10
Insane price. 2-3x value, I think.
We'll likely see (many of) them individually on the bay at 2-5000 soon. Assuming actual monies change hand. At this dollar value, deals regularly fall apart or have oddball payment terms (ie, I'll give you 2000 now and the rest once I sell them individually).
KonAaron, FWIW I agreed in general with most of your prices. I could quibble (Viner high, Condor low) but they seemed spot on, though a bit high given frame sizes. Certainly range.
We'll likely see (many of) them individually on the bay at 2-5000 soon. Assuming actual monies change hand. At this dollar value, deals regularly fall apart or have oddball payment terms (ie, I'll give you 2000 now and the rest once I sell them individually).
KonAaron, FWIW I agreed in general with most of your prices. I could quibble (Viner high, Condor low) but they seemed spot on, though a bit high given frame sizes. Certainly range.
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"It's always darkest right before it goes completely black"
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08-31-12 | 03:50 PM
#62
Fat Guy on a Little Bike
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From: Philadelphia, PA
Bikes: Two wheeled ones
I'm sure I was wrong on quite a few...it's also hard without more photos and better equipment descriptions. I'm not seeing a $1,000/bike value here sold individually.
08-31-12 | 03:55 PM
#63
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From: Louisville, KY
That was my thought as well.
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08-31-12 | 05:37 PM
#65
Buyer had under 100 transactions reported, not all do now, so unless the buyer has changed user names, a "young" , tall collector. One with more experience would I think have waited and bid the minimum very late in the game and come away with the set. By ascending to the buy it now premium he insured his win but at a stiff cost.
Be very interesting to see if the buyer sells off a few in a month or two, he has almost a month of riding different each bike one day each to just evaluate them all.
08-31-12 | 06:03 PM
#66
Fat Guy on a Little Bike
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From: Philadelphia, PA
Bikes: Two wheeled ones
Not everyone values money the same way and there are people out there to whom $7,000 isn't a lot of money. So long as he's happy with his purchase...
To me he paid triple value on a lot of mediocre bikes and a few nicer ones that don't do it for me in an undesirable size.
After reading the ad, I'm not sure if the buyer is also purchasing the 20 boxes. I initially read it as they were available for a price, now I'm not sure. Maybe the buyer went over, took a look in the boxes and found 10 groups of 50th campy. Those 20 boxes could make all the difference in this case, and it doesn't mention how large those boxes are.
To me he paid triple value on a lot of mediocre bikes and a few nicer ones that don't do it for me in an undesirable size.
After reading the ad, I'm not sure if the buyer is also purchasing the 20 boxes. I initially read it as they were available for a price, now I'm not sure. Maybe the buyer went over, took a look in the boxes and found 10 groups of 50th campy. Those 20 boxes could make all the difference in this case, and it doesn't mention how large those boxes are.
Last edited by KonAaron Snake; 08-31-12 at 06:06 PM.
08-31-12 | 07:06 PM
#68
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Geez, this is the second high profile C&V EBAY auction to go quietly into the night. I was disappointed by the NOS Paramount a while back and now this one fizzles. I was hoping it would go the distance and possibly reveal more of the back story on the collection including the owner, seller and buyer.
08-31-12 | 07:09 PM
#69
Thrifty Bill
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From: Mans of NC & SW UT Desert
Bikes: 86 Katakura Silk, 87 Prologue X2, 88 Cimarron LE, 1975 Sekai 4000 Professional, 73 Paramount, plus more
Wow, was I wrong. $30,000, unfreakin' believable.
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Please don't confuse ebay "asking" prices with "selling" prices. Many sellers never get their ask price. some are far from it. Value is determined once an item actually SELLS. Its easy enough to check SOLD prices.
Please don't confuse ebay "asking" prices with "selling" prices. Many sellers never get their ask price. some are far from it. Value is determined once an item actually SELLS. Its easy enough to check SOLD prices.
08-31-12 | 07:17 PM
#70
Fat Guy on a Little Bike
Joined: Jun 2008
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From: Philadelphia, PA
Bikes: Two wheeled ones
I wish I could follow the buyer's auctions - if we see a ton of parts for sale, we know what happened. If the seller, a non-bike guy, gave the 20 boxes with the sale, that could be the missing piece here. Buyer goes to check it out, finds something spectacular in those boxes - he might have been worried about other local buyers checking it out and pulled the trigger. 20 boxes is a LOT of parts...and they could be big boxes.
08-31-12 | 07:24 PM
#71
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From: NW Burbs, Chicago
I wish I could follow the buyer's auctions - if we see a ton of parts for sale, we know what happened. If the seller, a non-bike guy, gave the 20 boxes with the sale, that could be the missing piece here. Buyer goes to check it out, finds something spectacular in those boxes - he might have been worried about other local buyers checking it out and pulled the trigger. 20 boxes is a LOT of parts...and they could be big boxes.
If feedback is exchanged, you will learn the identity of the buyer. Then you can follow their auctions.
08-31-12 | 07:46 PM
#72
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From: Pacific Northwest
Disagree in part. Back in the day many if not most models were stocked in 57cm and then the next size up was 62cm. There is presently the world's greatest glut of 62cm vintage steel frames, something like 50 x the number of 59cm frames. Frames between 59cm and 61cm inclusive sell reasonably well, and this is the reason why, I believe.
Personally I refer to 58 through 61 as "plug the gap" sizes. Whereas I have literally given away 62cm frames a dozen at a time (but first yanked and sold the forks with nice long steerers, to sell to the fixie crowd; best time over money proposition.)
So in this auction, given that many of these frames were "plugging the gap", that lent *some* value no doubt to the whole package.
Personally I refer to 58 through 61 as "plug the gap" sizes. Whereas I have literally given away 62cm frames a dozen at a time (but first yanked and sold the forks with nice long steerers, to sell to the fixie crowd; best time over money proposition.)
So in this auction, given that many of these frames were "plugging the gap", that lent *some* value no doubt to the whole package.
Last edited by Drakonchik; 08-31-12 at 08:06 PM.
08-31-12 | 07:51 PM
#73
Thrifty Bill
Joined: Jan 2008
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From: Mans of NC & SW UT Desert
Bikes: 86 Katakura Silk, 87 Prologue X2, 88 Cimarron LE, 1975 Sekai 4000 Professional, 73 Paramount, plus more
I'm not sure what the discount is on a large frame; about 25% or more.
It should be way more in this case, because anyone who takes them to flip is going to be stuck with some of the bikes, like it or not.
And no serious collector is going to buy this entire collection to keep. At best, you'd be flipping half of it. There's some nice stuff in it, yes, but nothing that cannot be found with fairly minimal effort-- and at those sizes, at something of a discount. There is nothing here that is ridiculously hard to find. So if you're looking for the Cinelli and the Paramount (just two random picks here) you could buy them both for a good deal less without the added hassle of having to flip the rest.
A serious hard core flipper would never pay this much for this volume of inventory in this size, because s/he would lose money on the deal. No question.
+1 Even if a collector bought the lot, several of the bikes are not "collector" bikes, like the high ten steel Panasonic. Surely some of them/many of them will be resold.
+1 Hard core flipper would have to pass, due to the tie up of a lot of $$, for a size of bike that is harder to sell.
+1 Most of the bikes are available elsewhere to a patient buyer, and you wouldn't have to take a full lot of bikes just to get the one(s) you wanted.
+1 Lets see if the $$$ really changes hands.
Unbelievable hassle, unless the buyer is local. Even then, its quite the hassle. I would assume those bikes are not adequately packed for transport, renting a UHaul, storage on both ends, etc.
__________________
Please don't confuse ebay "asking" prices with "selling" prices. Many sellers never get their ask price. some are far from it. Value is determined once an item actually SELLS. Its easy enough to check SOLD prices.
Please don't confuse ebay "asking" prices with "selling" prices. Many sellers never get their ask price. some are far from it. Value is determined once an item actually SELLS. Its easy enough to check SOLD prices.
Last edited by wrk101; 08-31-12 at 07:58 PM.
09-01-12 | 10:05 AM
#75
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Bikes: 3Rensho Aero with 10 speed Centaure / Record , Lecroco , whatever bike I have for sale at the moment