Silly question, since the Bike Industry constantly tries to make our stuff obsolete, but here goes... I'm looking at the Surly Long Haul Trucker and if I get (or build) one, I'd be keeping it for the "long haul". It's steel, it's strong, I should be able to ride it for a long time, right? But I wonder this: is there anything about the complete bike or the frame that makes it vulnerable in the reasonable future to obsolescence?

Example: my frame size comes with 26" wheels. I hear rumblings from the mountain community that 29" is the new thing. And roadies run 700c. So, would my frame end up using what's about to become "old school" wheels, and rims and tires will start fading away from the market (or good choices fade away at least)?

Another example: the brakes. The bike uses cantilevers, which folks seem to complain about in the cross world. Are discs about to take over the planet, leaving other brake systems eating their brake dust?

I don't care about new-fangled stuff, BTW, just want to make sure I don't buy the LAST of something. My bike needs to be practical.

Just the frame & shifters.

All teasing aside, it seems to be a comfortable and much-loved bike around here. If it seems like the right kind of ride, go for it.

I should hope not. If parts on the new LHT are obsolete I hope no one sees me riding my 1984 bike!

Even if every single new MTB went to 29" rims, to many bicycles around the world run 26" wheels. I bet 26" tires will be around for a LONG time to come.

Canti-levers when set up properly work very, very well. V-brakes are easier to setup however, but require different brake levers. I wouldn't worry about pad replacements either, as again, any tech that is on that many bikes won't go away overnight.

I don't think 26" wheels are going by the wayside anytime soon. (Famous last words?)

Well 700C rims didn't stop people from continuing to run 27's. On the touring forums they recommend 26" (over 700C) wheels if your doing world wide touring anyway, as replacements are more likely to be found.

If you're going to set it up with 9-speed brifters, those will be first to become obsolete. Then maybe the cantis, though hopefully not. I don't think 'niner sales have come close to 26" bike sales yet, so wouldn't worry about that.

I don't see any of the parts going the way of the dodo any time in the near (or far) future. When I say far, I'm talking bike-years, so 25 - 30 years.

26" wheels are strong and used on a crapton of big-box store and entry-priced bikes. Even if the trend to 29ers continues for the upper-price bikes, there will always be aftermarket 26ers available.
9spd isn't going anywhere for a while. Hell, if you know where to look you can still buy 6 and 7 speed equipment; and it's really not hard to find it. 9spd STI might get scarce in the future (but I doubt it). I don't see 9spd bar end or downtube going away any time soon.
Steel frames aren't going to outmode themselves for a gazillion reasons. Strong, cheap, repairable, moddable. Heavy 4130 frames like the LHT and CC are good utilitarian frames. You can beat the snot out of it and not destroy it.
Canti brakes... Ah, the divisive question: Cantis or discs? If you know how to adjust a pair of cantis, they're rim-crushingly strong. With the right pads, they're effective in almost all weather (no rim brake will work well on iced rims). They've been around forever because they're effective. The design has changed based on necessity (low-profile for clearance, development of linear pull for power,) but the basic idea is the same. Heck, there's a few new design cantis based on very old designs because of how well they work. i.e. Paul Neo-Retro, Velo-Orange Grand Cru; based on Mafac originals. Discs aren't going anywhere, but that doesn't mean to throw your cantis on the scrap heap.

I've got some friends riding long distance on very old steel frame bikes. Early 70s Alex Singer, mid 70s Schwinn, Motobecane and Peugeot, all manners of 80s frames (I have a 1988 Trek 400 lugged steel frame). Many are even riding with lots of the original equipment, with the exception of the wearable items.

For a while I rode a sixty year old Rudge Whitworth, parts were difficult to find but not impossible. Even if every component on your LHT went obsolete, enough of them have been made that you will still be able to find replacements.

Well, that's encouraging! I think that my other life (as a roadie) makes me particularly aware of the relentless "improvements" from the bike industry, so when I think of getting a frame that could really last a long time, part of says, "Yeah, but those jerks will find a way to make this thing useless in no time!" :-)

Don't fall for the hype. None of the improvements like 29" wheels, disc brakes, etc are going to fall the way VHS did to DVD.

Ha, I had a bike shop employee (well, not really a bike shop, more of an 'outdoors store') try to convince me and my friend that 'disc brakes are the future, in two years ALL bikes will have disc brakes'. Thankfully it's not a bike shop I frequent very often.

I wouldn't worry too much about anything going obsolete on your bicycle. Drivetrains, brakes, shifters can all be replaced pretty easily. Out of style is another thing though...

I'm trying to calculate when and how many 8-speed cassettes and shifters to buy to last the rest of my able-to-cycle life. I figure I have about 25 years left in me.

Man, when did cantis even come out? If they've lasted this long, I don't think you've anything to worry about.

We can even still buy 1" headsets fercrissakes. Does anything on a bicycle ever go obsolete? I honestly can't think of an example without getting really silly.

Spoon brakes.

27 inch wheels.

Those brakes will last a long time. Just replace the pads. Barend shifters will be around a long time as well because of tri bikes. These too last a long time if you don't crash and destroy them.

I am missing a tooth or a detent or something in my right-barend, and it still shifts fine, indexed and everything.

You can still buy 27" wheels - spoon brakes? You're being ridiculous.

Are any bikes still being made with cottered cranks? You can still buy the cranks, but I doubt that any new bikes come with them. I thought that center pull brakes were gone, but I saw the other day that you can buy brand new DiaCompe CPs. Also Paul CPs. Recently became the owner of a Raleigh Sports so had cause to look for 590mm/650A/26X1-3/8 rims and tires. You guessed it, very nice polished CR18 rims and a wide selection of tires including some real nice Schwalbes. Tires for 597mm 26 X 1-3/8 1-1/4 Schwinn S5/S6 rims are slim pickings (Kenda). Found a European shop on the web that had some inexpensive Schwalbes in that size, but shipping was like $150 so I passed.

Oh -- how about zinc plated carbon steel spokes. I bet they're damned close to being obsolete and unavailable. Handlebars wioth 15/16" clamp area -- can you still find those? Ashtabula cranks?

edit: various standards are gone, of course. 26tpi headsets (old Raleigh). 26tpi BBs (Raleigh again) though there may be som Phil Wood stuff. Swiss BBs. Italian threaded freewheels -- the BSC works on Italian threaded hubs, in my experience.

I believe that cottered steel cranks are still being fitted to new Chinese and Indian copies of the classic Raleigh roadster, along with rod operated brakes and the old style steel rims they work with. Take a look at a Flying Pigeon to see still made parts we consider to be totally obsolete. Per a recent post I read the Chinese are still making 3 and 4 speed freewheels!

IMO you will not see disc brakes taking over on road bikes due to weight compared to dual pivot caliper brakes. I believed that discs are forbidden for most cyclocross racing too. Cantilevers, when set up properly, can be excellent brakes. Sheldon Brown covers setup and adjustment considerations very well. For certain applications and people 29er MTBs are popular but many still prefer 26" wheels based on current MTBs at the LBSs I visit.

Surly bikes use very generic type components which should be available for a long time and if things like 9 speed cassettes and shifters get scarce then the hub can have 10 speed cassettes installed and the shifters upgraded.

I had no problem recently updating the stem and bars on my 83 Colnago for a better fit and it has been quite a while since quill stems have been fitted to new bikes. I also upgraded the freewheel from 6 to 7 speeds. All parts used were new and readily available.

This is one case where I seriously doubt that 26 inch tires will go away or become obsolete.

For one thing there are bike sizes out there including obviously the LHT where 29er or 700cc wheels just do not do right for the frame below a certain size. Unless people under 5-10 are outlawed I just see no way 26 inch wheels wheel not be around essentially forever.

I run 27" wheels I will admit it is getting a bit tough to find nice tires, but far from impossible. I figure I will keep them until something goes horribly wrong with one (not likely), then I will upgrade.

A bike is a machine all to itself. It isn't like a computer. You won't need to put new software on it or make sure it has compatible ports some time in the future. Use the parts that make sense for what you want to ride, the only obsolescence is in your head. Are there any cars in the world you would consider obsolete?

As an extra side note: People keep talking about 26" wheels *maybe* going, but my impression has always been that they are the most common and most easily found wheel/tire. It will be a while.

You guys worry too much. I ride 20-30 YO bikes on a daily basis and rebuild my main one every couple of years. I have yet to not find new parts, then there is donor bikes too.

I don't understand this. I'm 5'6" and have no problem at all with 700c or 27" wheels. I suppose that for 48-50cm bikes that smaller wheels make sense, but don't get why Surly and some others design what appear to me to be normal sized road/touring bikes with those tiny little wheels. I've heard people say it's because of shoe/toe clip overlap. Just about every bike I've ever ridden had overlap and I don't see why it's an issue. Others, obviously, disagree. That's ok.

Yeah, and we were looking at cyclocross bikes when he said this. I refrained from pointing out that disc brakes are verboten in most cross races. I guess he must have been more of a mountain biker...or maybe he was the guy who just sharpens the skates.