I-Like-To-Bike

To be fair to Acidfast7, I doubt that MMM's car cost/mile estimate is based on only driving a total of 1340 miles. If it MMM's estimate is anything like the commonly cited AAA estimates it is based on costs being spread over 75,000 miles or so.

acidfast7

Realistically, in a week or two, I'll be even with the cost of everything versus the bus (£4.50/day). This will occur at about 125 days of commuting.

I would estimate that I'll average 170 days or about 2000 miles/year of commuting with an additional expenditure of about 300 USD/year.

Productions would be:

Year 1: 2000 miles / 1000 USD = 0.50 USD/mi
Year 2: 4000 miles / 1300 USD = 0.32 USD/mi
Year 3: 6000 miles / 1600 USD = 0.26 USD/mi
Year 4: 8000 miles / 1900 USD = 0.23 USD/mi
Year 5: 10000 miles / 2200 USD = 0.22 USD/mi

I think that I'd hit an asymptotic value of roughly 0.20 USD/mi.

But, I will continue and we should have some empirical data!

wphamilton

I'm skeptical of that since consumables shouldn't be anywhere near $300 for that mileage and you're really not likely to go through wheels that quickly.

acidfast7

one tire is 50 USD MRSP and they'll last around 4000 miles or so. that's one per year alone.

maybe I am wrong, but that's why it should be done ... it is an interesting experiment.

noglider 

Where is the bike when you work? Do you shop with it, and if so, where do you secure it?

I-Like-To-Bike

Also almost all putatively reliable car cost per mile estimates depreciate the purchase price over a 3 or 5 year period, and factor in the trade-in value at the end of the 3 or 5 year period. Acidfast7 has included the entire purchase price at mile one, i.e 100% depreciation on day one.

acidfast7

We have a shared faculty bike locker, where one has to "rent" a key for a £10 deposit. Then, I use the U-lock inside of the shared bike locker. I lock it up in front of the market or pub when I use those facilities. It lives inside of my flat overnight.

Why do you ask?

acidfast7

I can't really buy a bicycle on payments (or lease one). The entire cost at the beginning, therefore, seemed more reasonable. Or not?

noglider 

It's a matter of time before a bike is stolen. Just trying to figure your odds. You sound fairly safe, though. Here in NYC, some people can only keep a bike for a couple of years on average.

Bike Gremlin

My average has been 5 years, but yes- they all get stolen at some point.

I-Like-To-Bike

Not. Method of purchase (cash or credit) is immaterial for depreciation purposes or figuring average cost per mile over a length of time for a car or bike. Presumably your bike still has some value when you rolled it out of the store. It will also have some value at the end of the evaluation/test period which should be factored in when computing cost/mile. Your "mistake" is in trying to compute cost/mile at an early point of your "test." Counting total purchase price over such a short distance skews the cost/mi far in excess of what will be seen in time after a normal ownership period.

I-Like-To-Bike

Guess I'm overdue, I've owned and ridden bikes for 61 years including many in stick fingered Philadelphia and never had one stolen. I did once have a small accessory bag stolen from a bike parked outside my hotel in Gouda, NL.

Bike Gremlin

I stand corrected: many bikes that are left locked outside get stolen at some point. Better?

I use bicycles as a means of transport. That means locking them up in front of market places, banks, work, pubs etc. In around 30 years I've had 4 bicycles stolen.

I-Like-To-Bike

Better.

I also have used a bicycle for for years for transport all over. Still do.

noglider 

You may not live long to have a bike stolen, which means it will be stolen after you die.

Bike Gremlin

Then you must be the one stealing all the bicycles!

acidfast7

I guess this line of discourse begs the question I was contemplating before I bought the bike in the first place. I surveyed the facilities as work and at home and made the estimate that if I locked it if outside overnight, it would last about 5 years, while I'd make it about 10 years if locked inside. I considered the life of the bicycle over when it was cheaper to replace then to repair.

As far as the initial cost, in my opinion it was necessary to have the bike in my possession before starting the calculation, therefore I front loaded the costs of bike and equipment (minus the helmet and clothing I already had). That way, a bicyclist would see the true cost of bicycle ownership and how long it would take to hit the magic cross-over point where every mi after a certain distance was "free."

For more that will be roughly 125 round-trip commutes or around 9 or 10 months of commuting.

If we're assessing the ability of a bike to be used as replacement for a car/bus, this seemed like a more accurte predictor of true costs, as most don't by bikes with a payment system.

wphamilton

That's how I looked at it. Cost of bike and maintenance vs cost of driving were equal for me at 5 months. After that it was just cost of maintenance.

acidfast7

added:

1 set of front bake pads: £3.99
1 wrap with electrical/isolation tape £1 for the roll (ghetto but cheap and will last until I dump the bike this winter on the other side and replace all bar tape).

stats:

2177km/1352mi
£544/$865 total
£0.24/km
€0.31/km
$0.63/mi

photos:

acidfast7

stats:

2197km/1365mi
£544/$865 total
£0.24/km
€0.31/km
$0.63/mi

photos:

acidfast7

round-trip bus fare: £4.70/day
number of days required to break even: £544 / £4.70 = 115.7
current number of round-trip commutes completed: 1365mi/11.8mi/commute = 115.6

NEXT COMMUTE WILL BE THE BREAK-EVEN COMMUTE!

wish be luck ... at that point, I will add a money saved statistic

acidfast7

stats:

2216km/1376mi
£544/$865 total
£0.24/km
€0.30/km
$0.62/mi
net money saved (bus fare saved minus running costs): £4.70

photos:

noglider 

Congratulations!

And thank you for your datageekiness.

acidfast7

Thanks! I'm quite happy.

When the savings gets high enough, I'll go on holiday!

acidfast7

stats:

2235km/1388mi
£544/$865 total
£0.24/km
€0.30/km
$0.62/mi
net money saved (bus fare saved minus running costs): £9.40

photos: