As I’m looking to spec my next project I have to wonder if there is a way to future proof or at least not have a standard or group obsolete in a year. Right now I have Campy 10 speed on 2 bikes. As far as I know my wheels will work if I upgrade to 11 or 12 speed. But I’m seriously thinking about switching to Shimano. I used to think Campy was rebuildable and much nicer looking. Now they’re as ugly as everyone else.

Just stay aware of proprietary stuff and buy what you want now. Manufactures don't want you to future proof as they want to sell you more stuff.

In regards to wheels, many modern hubs have options to be converted to QR or Thru Axle (not Shimano) so look into those.

I’m going to assume you’re getting a new frame for this project.

The best standard for bottom brackets is BB386. It will fit shimano HT2, SRAM DUB, and various 30mm spindles and allows for a plastic or metal sleeve around the bearings unlike BB30. (The worst is BB90, if you’re wondering). The cup size for BB386 is the same as PF30, PF30A, BBright, etc. so you have plenty of aftermarket support.

Obviously you want 12mm TA, not QR or 15 front. Flat mount brakes as well.

The safest hub to buy is DT Swiss. They are the most popular hub mfg out there right now, and one of only a handful that has access to the Shimano 12s Microspline license. Even if you get an 11s freehub, you can swap it later. They also have replaceable endcaps. I would personally also get straight pull spokes because it seems like that is the way the industry is heading, but that’s really far in the future.

You don’t want a Shimano Direct Mount rear mech hanger - those never caught on, and probably never will.

It seems that you’re mainly asking about groupsets. It’s odd that you’re considering Shimano because Shimano is the only company that is almost guaranteed change next year and go 12 speed with a new freehub/cassette standard. That being said, Shimano still makes 7 speed freewheels and 8 speed cassettes. I don’t think you need to worry about having a future-proof groupset.

Straight-pull spokes...why haven;t I heard of these before? They look like a great idea. You could replace a rear, drive-side spoke without removing the gears (which now are the size of frisbees).

Good question, since they've been around for decades.

[MENTION=477931]smashndash[/MENTION]'s crystal ball is probably a lot clearer than mine. My bikes were already obsolete when I bought them, so I bought a couple rounds of replacement parts to keep them going years into the future. The total cost wasn't bad. Laying in spares of consumables while you can is probably the surest way to "future-proof" a new bike, too.

If you get 15mm TA up front, you can use MTB 29'er wheels, or use a simple 15mm-to-12mm insert to convert to 12mm. Easy to make a 15mm TA fork into a 12mm; not so easy to go the other way.

Don’t give me too much credit. I just pointed out standards that are *not dead yet*. Post mount, 15mm TA (for road), BB90, and DM rear mechs are pretty much dead or on their way out, but there’s plenty of bikes (especially used ones) that still have those.

Fair enough. Your solution is probably more futureproof but DT allows one to swap endcaps and also:

”This is where PDXTI’s carbon 12mm to 15mm thru-axle adapter comes in handy. Weighing a paltry 9.7 grams, this simple tube of carbon fiber slides into your wheel’s 15mm front axle, spacing out the front axle and allowing you to utilize a 15mm thru-axle front wheel on a fork designed for 12mm.”

There exist solutions for the other way around, but they may not work as well.

Nothing will be obsolete in only a year.
fwiw, got my merlin about 16 years ago and it's fully compatible with most everything available today. BSA BB, original campy groupset was 10 speeds, those hubs though are good for 11 and now 12 speed. 27.2 seatpost, standard 31.8 stem clamp, etc.

It will only be obsolete if you believe marketers.

Most standards in bikes are the result of manufacturers trying everything during a fad, and one winning. Good luck!

Nothing that is well established is obsolete in a year.
Campy 10sp is still made, that alone should show you your stuff wont be obsolete.


Last winter I bought some 9sp Microshift STIs for $42 new. Components that arent a fad dont become obsolete, they become less expensive.

Here is how you future proof yourself- dont go with a proprietary seatpost or stem. Dont go with a frame that has pivot points. Use a threaded bottom bracket.
There- its future proofed.


All seriousness, whatever bike you get now should last for the next 10-15 years without anything more than maintenance. All the consumables will still be available as there will be a market for them.

Agreed.
I will add, don't buy a Carbon Fibre bike if you want a future-proofed bike.

Unfortunately there is no such thing. Soon we will have 50 speeds with razor thin Spectra chains that use molecular fusion to shift and invisible aluminum bicycles that weigh less than air and are infinitely stiff and yet absorb every bump completely. And I will still be searching ebait for "10-speed" parts and down tube shifters.

Dura Ace AX, Shimano 600 AX, and Adamas AX only lasted about three years. Getting parts for those or Campagnolo MIAGE OR Veloce 9-speed now can be hard and/or expensive.

Like someone up thread said, about he only thing you can do is buy plenty of consumables whilst they are still available.

Cheers

8 speed 👍🏻

Huh?

Do you reckon you will see any 30 year old CF bikes in the future?
This is nearly that old.

Because the life of a CF frame is unknown and the OP really did not define the future he was trying to proof.

Some consider CF frames disposable.

The life of a well made CF frame will be about as long as any other well made frame.

There are plenty of 20+ year old CF frames out there. They are stronger in most ways than steel. Asplode is not a thing, except on the interwebz.

The most future proof is the least proprietary. You mentioned future proof though as being in one year. What is going to happen in one year that your bike is suddenly outdated or inadequate? It will work in one year as it works now. It's not like this is the mid 90's and you are buying a computer....
You can still buy bulletproof 3x square taper cranks and a BB that will survive a sizable nuclear yield for under $60.

So why don't I see any?

There is no freaking way I would purchase a used CF frame unless I knew who owned it and was intimately familiar with it. I can inspect an aluminum or steel frame and make sound judgements about the condition, this is not possible with a CF frame. And there is so much trash coming out the big box factory country that may be questionable when new.

Could a CF frame last 30 years, maybe, but I would not ride it.

Bike forums needs an LOL button

Well CF just became a main stream, somewhat mature tech 10 or 12 years years ago. Most road bikes and a good percentage of decent quality mountain bikes are made of it.

And I see 20+ year old Trek 5500s pretty damn often.