I-Like-To-Bike

Both in the U.S, at least voluntarily when other options are available. What do think "gentrification" is all about?

cooker

"Voluntary" and "available" are relative terms. People choose based on both preferences and pragmatics. If a car would be a hassle (eg. New York) or financial burden they may choose not to own one, even though they might say they would prefer to, while others might choose to own one they can't actually afford.

I-Like-To-Bike

Don't be confused, a reported rise in number of people eschewing the ownership of a privately owner motor vehicle is no indicator of any increased interest in cycling for transportation, let alone a basis for predicting a significant (or any) rise in bike commuting.

As previously pointed out, people who choose not own a car for whatever reason are just like people who do own cars, they seldom choose to make cycling their principal means of transportation, even if they ride one every now and then, hence the low percentage of bicycle commuters in a City where 50% of the people do not own cars.

Roody

You might be right. However, if you and Walter will re-read my post, I didn't predict that 10%--or even 2%--of adults would depend on bikes for all their transportation needs. Rather, I predicted something very different--that 10% of all urban/suburban travel will be by bicycle. I expect that almost all people will continue to rely heavily on other transportation, mostly transit and cars.

Riding a bike is not an unpleasant chore on a nice day. It is a clean, economical, and above all FUN way to take short trips. We might try to keep that secret to ourselves, but more people will figure it out.

jack pot 

The Death of the Local Bike Shop | Outside Online
https://www.outsideonline.com/212674...ocal-bike-shop >>> i predict that there will be an increase in LBSs wi the next 5 yrs but... OUTSIDE MAG predicts that I'm wrong

tandempower

I think the percentage would have been higher if bike prices hadn't shot up as they did with the hipster bike trend. I would not have predicted that surge in bike pricing. If anything, I predicted that pricing would get more affordable as economy of scale grew. I think investors put effort into keeping LCF elite, for whatever reason, instead of doing what Ford did and getting the price of quality bikes down to levels that would have lots of people biking for transportation.

If this actually happened, I think it would be different than the way things went with the automobile, because of the relatively small/slow nature of the bike. E.g. I expected/predicted to see bike share bikes everywhere, like shopping carts. I expected them to be simple fixie-type single-speeds with folding handle-bars that could stack easily on racks, which could be placed everywhere so anyone could pretty much grab a bike and ride it wherever and leave it. I figured cities/businesses would be able to buy such bikes in bulk and they'd be installing racks in spots where bikes tended to pile up.

I think the main barrier for such an 'abundant-bike' development to take place is the pricing of parts that come with bike shops maintaining pricing structures that keep them in business. If parts were cheaply available in bulk everywhere, it would be more difficult to make money as a shop, and it would be more difficult to convince people to pay significant money to own and maintain their own bicycle, which only connoisseurs would do. The benefit, however, would be that everyone else could just grab a bike to go wherever, the way they grab shopping carts at the supermarket and leave them in the parking lot or wherever else they please.

blue192

When I sold my old car 15 years ago I predicted two things: 1) I would save quite a bit of money and 2) if more people took public transportation then roads would be less congested. In Ottawa a new light rail will be completed next year and will be extended within 3 years. So far I can see the future.

wolfchild

I don't believe that the cost of bicycles has anything to do with most people not choosing a bicycle as their main form of transportation...Most hipsters who ride bikes don't go to an LBS and spend $ 2000 dollars on a bicycle. They use cheap vintage bicycles which they purchase used at pawn shops and garage sales.

I-Like-To-Bike

Anything is possible, but short of a major catastrophe, physical or financial, I'd be surprised if in the next 5 or 10 years the percentage of all urban/suburban travel done by bicycle (whether measured in number of trips or in miles traveled) rises by any significant number from today where it remains relatively insignificant. My prediction applies to both the motor vehicle owning population as well as that small proportion who are voluntarily living car free.

I-Like-To-Bike

Most of ANYBODY who rides a bike in the U.S. does not buy a bike at a bike shop at any price, nor spend $2000 on a bicycle even if bought from an LBS.

I-Like-To-Bike

The main barrier for such an 'abundant-bike' development to take place is zero demand for such a development at any pricing structure outside of one BF dreamer. Hence zero 'abundant-bike' developments" ANYWHERE.

tandempower

The cost may be a deciding factor for people thinking about bike commuting as a way of saving money on driving expenses. If people rely on driving, they're not likely to take a huge plunge and sell their car and cancel their insurance and buy a $1000+ bike. More likely they're going to look into what kind of bike they can get to try it out that won't cost too much. Then, if they listen to the Walmart-haters that Walmart bikes are underpriced and prone to quick failure, they're going to avoid those and start looking at bike shop bikes. If, then, the bike shops make them think that $200-$300 for a low-end bike is really not as good as spending $500-$700 for a reliable commuting bike, they're more likely to walk away and spend the money on something else, whereas people who don't have any negativity about cheap bikes, whether used or from Walmart, are more likely to spend $100 to try out biking. Of course there's no guarantee someone will stick to it once they start biking, but they're more likely to try it out if the bikes are affordable. But then you could also say they're more likely to persevere through challenges if they've invested more in their bike, but they're not going to persevere at all if they never get a bike to begin with.

Really, I think the bike market should be more cooperative than competitive. If people want to get a cheap bike at Walmart or wherever, they shouldn't be chastized. If the bike has problems, tell them how to fix it and tell them how they can make it better, even by replacing it ultimately. Give them a sense they can nurse it along for a while. I guess I don't really mind their being $1000+ bikes and I even find it interesting what kinds of innovations are being spawned by the prospect of getting that kind of price for it; but it shouldn't lead to a vacuum of mid-level bikes and bike parts for people to continue riding around town affordably. Imo, a broad base of reliable, affordable bikes creates the culture of love and faith in cycling that leads some people to invest more in higher-priced innovations and specialty bikes. When manufacturers/distributors start replacing basic parts with proprietary stuff and generally making it difficult and expensive to bike affordably, it causes problems for bicycle culture overall, which is probably some people's intention anyway.

tandempower

I don't know of any demand for ILTB negativity, yet ILTB posts are abundant in this forum.

tandempower

A lot of bike/pedestrian infrastructure has been created since the last period of high fuel pricing. They may be able to keep the fuel prices low indefinitely, but in the event that prices go up again, which I predict they will, it will be easier for people to transition to LCF than it used to be.

wolfchild

You would be surprised...Actually it's pretty easy to spend around $ 2000 on a bicycle, a good quality MTB or road bike with mid-level components costs around that... I have several different LBS here in my city and all of them stock plenty of bikes which cost around $ 2000 and people are buying them for their weekend rides and fitness rides, even if they only ride once or twice per week when the weather is nice...A good quality hybrid bike can easily cost around $1300, then add some racks, panniers, bells and whistles, lights, fenders, spandex clothing, special shoes and it can all add up to $ 2000+++ really fast. A pair of good quality tires plus tubes plus a pump can costs more then an entire wallmart bicycle.

Walter S

Predictions aren't negative or positive. People should not be attacked because they find various predictions to read like unrealistic fairy tails. I agree with most of what ILTB has posted here. The factors that some of you think will make LCF take off in five years seem almost comical to me. I can certainly understand h healthy dose of scepticism.

tandempower

I wasn't attacking ILTB, except as a comical jab to point out that he's talking about demand driving supply and meanwhile supplying his negative POV whether or not there is a demand.

I'm sorry but I get tired of little comments that basically amount to saying that people want to drive and don't want to give up driving. Obviously there is always a status quo where people want to maintain the status quo and don't want to change. Does that mean the status quo should always be protected against change? No, more people living CF has positive effects that go beyond the narrow POV of status quo culture.

Certainly people didn't want cars before Ford started building Model Ts, and even once he got the price down to an affordable level, many people still didn't want them. Nevertheless, the demand grew as infrastructure grew and as automotive norms grew. The same would happen with LCF if it was pursued as the automobile was, and I predict it eventually will one way or the other, because it is just a logical evolution of technological efficiency to move in the direction of human power and other forms of natural power, i.e. because it is most efficient and least environmentally disruptive.

wolfchild

I think your prediction is backwards...If anything, the world is moving in a direction away from using "human power" as much as possible. New inventions are constantly coming along which reduce the need for human power.

I-Like-To-Bike

Of course, people can spend multi thousands of dollars on their pastimes whether it be bicycles, wines, entertainment venues, sports, fishing gear, or any number of hobbies; and some do. Doesn't change the facts that the average price of the great majority of new bicycles sold in the U.S. is less than a hundred dollars and sold by non-LBS establishments. Nor does it mean that these bikes will meet the approval of the bicycling cognoscenti who either buy more expensive equipment or post biased opinions about necessary levels of bicycle quality or bicycle provenance on Bikeforums.net.

tandempower

Not really, because population grows as nutritional, medical, and other health advances increase survival rates and longevity. So as more people live and live longer, there is more demand for housing, workplaces, amenities, etc. It is just logical that land use will evolve toward consolidating more human activity with less driving because moving a large vehicle around a grid of wide-laned roads causes congestion faster over a broader area than the same people, way, walking around in a mall.

For all the hate that malls got in the 20th century, they were a logical evolution toward LCF in a society where automotive traffic was growing too bustly and congested. Strip malls were also a logical evolutionary step from malls, because people walk around them outside, which saves businesses the shared cost of maintaining common indoor space, as is necessary in a mall.

Now we're beginning to see evolution of strip malls toward more 2D and 3D layouts, with parking around the perimeter like a mall. Increasingly, people are realizing they'd rather do a little walking while they shop instead of driving from store to store and searching for parking spots. So the more people there are, the more traffic-congestion there is to motivate evolution toward more opportunities to escape the traffic.

Eventually, it should be possible to live mostly CF and only rely on motorized transportation for certain trips between mixed-use areas. There will still probably be a lot of motor traffic, but the amount of non-motorized traffic happening in CF zones like strip-malls and mixed-use developments will keep growing in proportion to it.

Roody

Most of the people I know who ride bikes are paying about the same as they did years ago. $50 - $200. I don't think the hipsters have had much impact on us here in Lansing, MI. (It might be different over in East Lansing!)

tandempower

I would like to see 10-20 single-speeds with folding handlebars and pedals stacked up against every bus stop in a neat, efficient way so that people could grab a bike after exiting the bus. Maybe these bikes could have solid tires, like shopping carts do, and fool-proof components (drive shafts instead of chains?).

The distance between bus stops and destinations is a big obstacle to increasing transit ridership; and increasing ridership would make it reasonable to run route buses more often. What's more, if riders can bike at their destinations, you can have express buses with less-frequent stops because people can bike further from the stop where they get out.

McBTC

We probably will see over the next 5 years that LCF probably has reached a peak as a movement in that it cannot become more defensive and dishonest of the true motives of the movement's underlying ideology nor continue on with its simpleminded holier-than-thou Leftist thinking, wrapped up in anti-modernist envirobabble and purposefully oblivious to the social and historical reality of human existence--

wolfchild

LOL ....yeah right, solid tired bicycles with driveshaft and single speed drivetrains must be really comfortable and efficient to ride...Most of your ideas are so ridiculous it's not even funny anymore.

tandempower

Why not? Bell already sells solid inner tubes for certain tire sizes, i.e. for smaller tires. Driveshaft-bikes are already used in Asia. Idk why they've been kept out of US markets.

Why do certain people always respond with violent negativity to any ideas I have? It's like you automatically assume an idea is unworkable if it comes from me.