dynodonn 

1 to 2 cars less out of 100 over 11 years, again, not something I'm going to get excited about.

Roody

Evidently the schools don't do a better job of teaching statistics in Ireland than they do here. Look at it this way. A per capita drop in mileage and a drop in total mileage are two different statistics, and they mean different things. But they both can indicate a "real" drop in miles driven.

Returning to your example: If per capita driving were unchanged and the population doubled, then total miles would be 2,000, or a 100% increase. Not 1,800 as in your scenario. Clearly, 1,800 is a smaller number than 2,000 amd therefore represents a "real" drop in miles driven.

Caretaker

Clearly, 1,800 is larger than 1,000 which was the figure for total miles driven two years previously in my example.

It isn't about whose schools are better than whose but a mistaken belief that rising population, increases the significance of falling per capita figures, when if anything it has the opposite effect. This was the point of my original post which you might care to go back and read.

gerv 

"Peak car" is still a pretty interesting concept and there's lots to read on the concept if you don't mind wading through Google results.

This Treehuggerarticle summarizes from a number of sources .

(Note: Peak Grammar may be a real phenomenon too... )

Rona

One thing that seriously needs to be considered is having bus and train companies as for-profit agencies and not governmental. I think if there was a profit to be made it would help get more busses out there, more train systems out there. Anyone know how Amtrak and Greyhound are doing these days? I know here in NL that Arriva and NS is making good profit and expanding, but I'm not familiar with US companies anymore.

Ekdog

Privatize bus and rail while continuing to massively subsidize the automobile? Isn't that just going to make matters worse?

Mark Stone

I work at Greyhound and it is doing fine after a couple of tough years. Buses are full.

Statistics are statistics, but aren't we fooling ourselves when we think there's going to be a major switchover in North America from the Car culture to a mass transit/bicycling culture? I think a few people will make the change, but automobiles are so ingrained into our society's psyche and our lifestyle as a whole that I believe only something major that would rip automobiles out of the hands of the car addicts would make any real difference. Something like a sudden complete unavailability of gasoline. For many of us, that are bicycle commuters, it's nothing to ride the miles to work - but if a person has not ridden for years or at all, that first couple of miles after a "I'm going to commute by bicycle!!" decision are very, very hard and I bet not that many would continue. I'm facing it - as a bicycle commuter I am different from the mainstream. My example may make a few others try it, and perhaps successfully, but if we're hoping for a major North American transition away from the car culture we're fooling ourselves. I like the 1.7% figure, but I don't believe the culture will change.

dynodonn 

Agree, it usually takes a serious change in their lifestyle/mindset, that many people probably were not expecting.

Caretaker

In the OP linked article the author 'verbs' the noun 'guilt'.

Sorry, can't bring myself to repeat the abomination.

Ekdog

That's why cycling is only a part of the answer. Along with better cycling infrastructure, mass transit must be improved.

cycleobsidian

I think car use (per capita) will decline for purely economic reasons.

Wages are going down while the cost of gasoline and insurance is going up.

I think that, in the future, we will see much more in the way of "one car" families instead of "two car", or "two car" families instead of "three car".

gerv 

This trend will probably be determined by where you live. Somewhere who lives in Etobicoke or other Toronto 'burb will probably need a car per family. However, some folks living in the downtown may not even have one car.

I believe we are going to see a trend towards more "infill" development in most North American cities and in some places the density of the population coupled with the cost of parking a car, will force many to forego the ownership of a car.

Mark Stone

Agree

Dahon.Steve

This idea to have for-profit bus and rail service has been discussed for years but it never happens. Here's why you don't see private companies start bus and rail service. First, almost all private bus lines that are in existance do not make a profit! The fare box only pays for the driver's salary and some of the gas but that's all. The money you pay per ride will cover anywhere from 20 - 60% of the average cost of the service. Cities and states then pay for the maintenance, bus depot and other administrative cost a private bus company incures in providing service. When it's time to buy new buses, cities will help finance the loans bus companies have to make while allowing them to increase fares to pay back the money.

This doesn't mean you cannot start your own private bus line. However, you will probably not get the most lucurative routes (if you can call them that!) and will have to run empty buses until people get used to using your service. Furthermore, if the city does not subsidize your company, it will be highly unlikely you'll be able to make a profit.

Roody

I honestly forget what we're supposed to be arguing about, and probably that's because we basically agree more than we disagree.

Well, the number of miles driven won't go down until people individually start driving less--in other words, when the per capita numbers go down. We can't do much about how many individuals choose to live in a given location. But we can each drive less as individuals, and we can help our own communities to develop in ways where cars are less necessary for everyday travel. I think most people on this forum would like to see that, and (if they would ever stop to think with an open mind) most people in the world would like to see peak car become a reality.

Roody

who's to say how long it will take for some other transportation mode to gain dominance over the automobile? Major changes almost always unfold very swiftly once they get started.

In 1900, nobody (literally) would have predicted an end to the dominance of horses and trains in transportation. Three years later, Ford and Olds had sudden inspirations to mass produce cars. Within 25 years--only one generation--the automobile was the dominant mode of transportation in the United States. Other developed countries weren't too far behind.

So

Hippiebrian

I don't believe that profit should be any consideration at all when talking public transportation. Amtrak was created here in the U.S. after the private railroads figured out that they weren't making a profit at passenger rail, so they were opting out. The government created Amtrak to keep passenger rail viable. Every year, all we hear about is how Amtrak isn't making a profit. If we decided that maybe Amtrak shouldn't make a profit, then ticket prices could come down to where rail could compete with the airlines and more people would take the trains, eventually creating a situation where they pay for themselves. Greyhound is doing well, however most passengers are on either short trips or cannot afford rail or air travel.

ReinderDijkhuis

Ahem.

Roody

As others havbe mentioned, Greyhound makes a profit, and so do dozens of other smaller interurban bus companies. I don't believe they get any federal subsidies (other than the ones that private automobiles and trucks get). Some states do subsidize interurban buses, however. The two companies that operate here in Michigan (Greyhound and Indian Trails) both have the option of leasing buses that are owned by the state of Michigan for a very low fee. This is fairly low cost for the state, since they can resell the buses after a couple years and recoup much of the investment.

In return for the low-cost buses, the bus lines agree to serve smaller communities across the state. Greyhound seems to be opting out of this subsidy more and more. It looks like the Dog is trying to focus on major inter-regional runs and the big cross-country routes. They seem to be leaving more of the feeder routes to smaller companies.

Mark Stone

That is exactly what Greyhound's current objectives are. It would be cool if they put front-mounted bicycle racks like some of the city buses do -

Mark Stone

To unseat automobiles from their lofty position would be more difficult than the situation in 1900. Cars are not just transportation, they are status symbols and addictive adult toys. When my daughters were teenagers, one of their first questions when some guy wanted to date them was "Does he have a car?" and "What kind of car?" People judge themselves and others by the car that they own, and that's gonna be one of the tough nuts to crack.

Roody

I imagine the same was said of horses in 1900. They were romantic, exciting, a symbol of freedom and sexiness. Bicycles also, for that matter. As is often said in marketing, peoples' desires never change--just the objects that they desire.

cycleobsidian

+1

Man, that would make my life easier!

christ0ph

Unfortunately, just as we are starting to pull back from carmania countries like China and India are becoming much more car dependent. I don't know much about India but owning a car is VERY expensive in cities like Shanghai, the taxes are as expensive as the car itself..but businesspeople still do it because they have to. Traffic is as bad or often worse than here.

I think politicians are attacking bicycling now because car ownership and the percentage of people with driver licenses is falling. Huge, huge numbers of unsold cars are sitting on the docks, losing value by the day. The unsold new cars in Long Beach stretch a very long distance. And that is just Toyotas.

The US is now I think 16th in car ownership. Luxembourg is first, Italy is second..

Many people would like to have a car but they are living on savings or their increasingly low wage mcjobs don't pay enough to own one. Teenagers socialize on the net or on their cell phones and dont feel as compelled to drive as they used to. Of course, when autonomous driving is decided on everyone will have to buy a new car at least once, if they want to use highways or drive in the city. But once is not enough to revive the kind of sales they used to have.

More people riding bikes must seem to politicians as a visible reminder that our standard of living is changing. Rather than see the fact that Americans are adaptive, they want to punish us. "kill the messenger", so to speak.

christ0ph

Google "National City Lines" - its one of the most important untold stories of the 20th century.