Are we reaching peak car?
11-16-11, 02:44 PM
#76
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There is in the thread, at least when the analysis was first offered no one vehemently disagreed. Either continue the discussion or don't; but ,at least pay attention.
Last edited by dwellman; 11-16-11 at 04:14 PM.
11-16-11, 02:45 PM
#77
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11-16-11, 03:54 PM
#78
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There are a couple of factors that might drive some of the decrease in driving.
The decrease is happening in 5 Canadian cities. In Canada the price of gas is near $5 a gallon. Sometimes more. These cities tend to be more densely populate than US cities, so traffic congestion is nasty. Canadians own far fewer cars per capita than Americans (Canada = 620 US=868 per 1000 people). Canadians pay higher taxes than Americans and would seem to have less disposable income to throw for gasoline.
Nonetheless, there is a lot of evidence than something similar is happening in the US. I can give only personal evidence. I have 3 children, 2 of whom have DLs and cars. One lives in the Toronto area and (as much as possible) beats traffic by taking the train to work. The other is moving to downtown Des Moines so he can walk to work.
The decrease is happening in 5 Canadian cities. In Canada the price of gas is near $5 a gallon. Sometimes more. These cities tend to be more densely populate than US cities, so traffic congestion is nasty. Canadians own far fewer cars per capita than Americans (Canada = 620 US=868 per 1000 people). Canadians pay higher taxes than Americans and would seem to have less disposable income to throw for gasoline.
Nonetheless, there is a lot of evidence than something similar is happening in the US. I can give only personal evidence. I have 3 children, 2 of whom have DLs and cars. One lives in the Toronto area and (as much as possible) beats traffic by taking the train to work. The other is moving to downtown Des Moines so he can walk to work.
Many people would like to have a car but they are living on savings or their increasingly low wage mcjobs don't pay enough to own one. Teenagers socialize on the net or on their cell phones and dont feel as compelled to drive as they used to. Of course, when autonomous driving is decided on everyone will have to buy a new car at least once, if they want to use highways or drive in the city. But once is not enough to revive the kind of sales they used to have.
More people riding bikes must seem to politicians as a visible reminder that our standard of living is changing. Rather than see the fact that Americans are adaptive, they want to punish us. "kill the messenger", so to speak.
More people riding bikes must seem to politicians as a visible reminder that our standard of living is changing. Rather than see the fact that Americans are adaptive, they want to punish us. "kill the messenger", so to speak.
11-16-11, 04:58 PM
#79
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It's not a thesis, it's a statement. Oil is clearly the driving force (pun intended lol) behind much of the world's economy and many of the world's wars. Without it, our cars wouldn't run. Cold turkey would be unbearable. Addiction. Did you ever see the movie Road Warrior?
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11-16-11, 08:06 PM
#81
In the right lane
11-16-11, 08:17 PM
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Whatever times 10.
11-16-11, 08:29 PM
#83
In the right lane
11-16-11, 10:27 PM
#84
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11-16-11, 10:45 PM
#85
Banned
11-17-11, 11:37 AM
#86
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More beer will get the stream running. You only rent beer. 
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11-17-11, 06:56 PM
#87
In the right lane
Freudian slip. Whatever.. 
I thought this was an exciting thread, but we seem to spend most of our time niggling over statistics. I guess this happens when you have a phenomenon as over-powering as the automobile... most people just can't believe there could be a turnaround.
I thought this was an exciting thread, but we seem to spend most of our time niggling over statistics. I guess this happens when you have a phenomenon as over-powering as the automobile... most people just can't believe there could be a turnaround.
Last edited by gerv; 11-17-11 at 06:59 PM.
11-17-11, 11:18 PM
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Roundabouts, but no turnaround.
Roundabound. . .
Roundabound. . .
11-18-11, 05:39 PM
#89
Sophomoric Member
Freudian slip. Whatever..
I thought this was an exciting thread, but we seem to spend most of our time niggling over statistics. I guess this happens when you have a phenomenon as over-powering as the automobile... most people just can't believe there could be a turnaround.
I thought this was an exciting thread, but we seem to spend most of our time niggling over statistics. I guess this happens when you have a phenomenon as over-powering as the automobile... most people just can't believe there could be a turnaround.
Those who think the car is going away soon, or quickly, will be eternally disappointed. Cars will be with us for the foreseeable future. Trying to eliminate them now is pointless.
We should focus on two things as a society. One is to develop fuel for cars that is friendlier to our pocketbooks the environment, and our political and economic systems.
The other focus should be on decreasing the miles driven on a per capita basis. Short car trips should be drastically reduced, for example. That's where us carfree people come in, IMO. We are delmonstration projects for a better way to handle short range travel in the modern world.
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Last edited by Roody; 11-18-11 at 05:44 PM.
11-18-11, 07:10 PM
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Probably. But what's that old adage: Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics.
https://www.focusedperformance.com/ar...esistance.html
Conflict is almost always the result of incorrect assumptions we have made. Likewise, conclusions based on incorrect assumptions (premises) almost always result in a lose/lose situation.
https://www.focusedperformance.com/ar...esistance.html
Conflict is almost always the result of incorrect assumptions we have made. Likewise, conclusions based on incorrect assumptions (premises) almost always result in a lose/lose situation.
11-18-11, 09:32 PM
#91
In the right lane
The other focus should be on decreasing the miles driven on a per capita basis. Short car trips should be drastically reduced, for example. That's where us carfree people come in, IMO. We are delmonstration projects for a better way to handle short range travel in the modern world.
But there is also quite an uptick in the commuting numbers... at least around here. I suppose it's bigger in the summer, but even late into the fall, I'm now seeing commuters all over the place. 5 years ago, a bicycle commuter was like hen's tooth.
But getting better statistics is an important feature in continuing any percentage drop. Once you have some reliable numbers, then policy makers and voters are able to see the indelible trend.
Right now, we are able to banter on and on about whether this is a real phenomenon or not, but once the numbers are in, we'll know for sure.
11-18-11, 11:21 PM
#92
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That's right. I remember being pretty excited when I saw a couple years ago that US fleet mileage was down for the first time in more than 100 years. But even a small decline in per capita miles driven is an exciting trend, and one we should feel good about as carfree people--regardless of our political orientation. Maybe you can't call it a turnaround yet, but atl least the steering wheel is off the dead ahaead position. BE HAPPY!
Those who think the car is going away soon, or quickly, will be eternally disappointed. Cars will be with us for the foreseeable future. Trying to eliminate them now is pointless.
We should focus on two things as a society. One is to develop fuel for cars that is friendlier to our pocketbooks the environment, and our political and economic systems.
The other focus should be on decreasing the miles driven on a per capita basis. Short car trips should be drastically reduced, for example. That's where us carfree people come in, IMO. We are delmonstration projects for a better way to handle short range travel in the modern world.
Those who think the car is going away soon, or quickly, will be eternally disappointed. Cars will be with us for the foreseeable future. Trying to eliminate them now is pointless.
We should focus on two things as a society. One is to develop fuel for cars that is friendlier to our pocketbooks the environment, and our political and economic systems.
The other focus should be on decreasing the miles driven on a per capita basis. Short car trips should be drastically reduced, for example. That's where us carfree people come in, IMO. We are delmonstration projects for a better way to handle short range travel in the modern world.
11-21-11, 08:27 AM
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Mithrandir is right, they also believe in an interpretation of Darwin that has no room for altruism (which has been separately proven to be the most important of humankind's survival traits) So, if some new development causes a third of a part of the richest country in the world to starve (Ireland 1847-1848), that's evolution for you, and (they say) its best if we don't do a thing to stop it.
Social Darwinism, neoliberalism, whatever you want to call it, its faulty logic, and its also evil.
Social Darwinism, neoliberalism, whatever you want to call it, its faulty logic, and its also evil.
You'll never get a certain political party in this country to agree with that stance. I've argued with members of that party who insist that if a profit cannot be made doing something, then it is actually "immoral" to do it. Utterly warped, but that's what we have to deal with in this country.
11-21-11, 08:31 AM
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When more people get turned on to ebikes, bike commuting numbers will go way up. In many areas, few Americans have ever even seen one!
11-21-11, 08:47 AM
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How can we get reliable statistics? It seems to me that the only way to get REALLY reliable statistics are webcams on bike commuter routes. And then either someone has to review the videos, counting every bicyclist, or some piece of software has to perform "object recognition" or "object tracking" common computer vision tasks, the size, shape and speeds of a bicycle with rider are fairly easy to recognize)
I suppose one source of numbers might be highway cameras.. but of course, they would not count riders who avoided highways when possible.
I suppose one source of numbers might be highway cameras.. but of course, they would not count riders who avoided highways when possible.
But there is also quite an uptick in the commuting numbers... at least around here. I suppose it's bigger in the summer, but even late into the fall, I'm now seeing commuters all over the place. 5 years ago, a bicycle commuter was like hen's tooth.
But getting better statistics is an important feature in continuing any percentage drop. Once you have some reliable numbers, then policy makers and voters are able to see the indelible trend.
But getting better statistics is an important feature in continuing any percentage drop. Once you have some reliable numbers, then policy makers and voters are able to see the indelible trend.
Last edited by christ0ph; 11-21-11 at 08:55 AM.
11-21-11, 09:31 AM
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I think the quote that says that the number of cars per capita for the US is 868 is way off. Last I read the US was at I think 14th or 16th (down from 5th a few years ago) in cars per capita, and it was maybe in the high 600s.
And its falling.
Reasons being many and difficult to really isolate.. One is of course, bicycles and public transport.. if people can go about their lives without cars, many people prefer to.
Another is the Internet, people do not need cars to socialize as they used to, nor shop as they used to.
They can have almost everything delivered right to heir door, (even food in many areas.)
Another is money, many people who could afford a car several years ago can't any longer because jobs are becoming harder to find and wages, especially for people without a lot of education, are falling.
Another reason is population density. In areas where there are very few people and the distances between towns is measured in the triple digits, a car (or horse, or ebike) is almost a necessity. In other places, cars are completely useless.
Places like Nevada, Australian outback, small islands, etc. are for various reasons, outliers..
Whoa, I just returned to the Wikipedia page I had seen a few weeks ago - https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...les_per_capita
and suddenly the US has jumped from 15th place to second.. after Monoco. This sudden big jump upward.. well.. what do people think?
I am going to start another thread about this - maybe we should try to do some fact checking..
These are the relevant (US and other top national listed sources: )
And its falling.
Reasons being many and difficult to really isolate.. One is of course, bicycles and public transport.. if people can go about their lives without cars, many people prefer to.
Another is the Internet, people do not need cars to socialize as they used to, nor shop as they used to.
They can have almost everything delivered right to heir door, (even food in many areas.)
Another is money, many people who could afford a car several years ago can't any longer because jobs are becoming harder to find and wages, especially for people without a lot of education, are falling.
Another reason is population density. In areas where there are very few people and the distances between towns is measured in the triple digits, a car (or horse, or ebike) is almost a necessity. In other places, cars are completely useless.
Places like Nevada, Australian outback, small islands, etc. are for various reasons, outliers..
Whoa, I just returned to the Wikipedia page I had seen a few weeks ago - https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...les_per_capita
and suddenly the US has jumped from 15th place to second.. after Monoco. This sudden big jump upward.. well.. what do people think?
I am going to start another thread about this - maybe we should try to do some fact checking..
These are the relevant (US and other top national listed sources: )
- ^ "Motor vehicles statistics - countries compared". NationMaster. https://www.nationmaster.com/graph/tr...motor-vehicles. Retrieved 2009-09-20.
- "World Bank Data: Motor vehicles (per 1,000 people)". The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3. Retrieved 2011-08-27.
- ^ Stacy C. Davis, Susan W. Diegel, and Robert G. Boundy (June 2011). "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 30". Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. https://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb30/Edition30_Full_Doc.pdf. Retrieved 2011-08-27. See Table 3.5, pp. 3-9
- "Energy, transport and environment indicators - eurostat Pocketbooks". Eurostat. 2010 edition. https://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cac...-10-001-EN.PDF. Retrieved 2011-08-27. See table 2.1.1 (pp. 92) and table 2.1.4 (pp.98). The rates were obtained adding the light vehicle motorization rates to the heavy vehicle rates.
- ^ "Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Jan 2011". Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2011-07-28. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0. Retrieved 2011-08-27.
- ^ John Sousanis (2011-08-15). "World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units". Ward AutoWorld. https://wardsauto.com/ar/world_vehicl...lation_110815/. Retrieved 2011-08-27.
11-21-11, 11:03 AM
#97
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It's Monaco not Monoco. Maybe you're confusing it with Morocco, a large contry in North Africa, whereas Monaco is a tiny principality on the French Riviera.
11-21-11, 07:02 PM
#98
In the right lane
11-21-11, 07:08 PM
#99
In the right lane
Christop, I tried to follow the first link you provided (Nation master) seemed to derive its data from the CIA factbook. Although when I clicked on the link, the page had moved. It actually seemed to put the US at the top of the heap... in front of Morocco and Monaco too.
I agree this topic would be a good thread. Go for it.
I agree this topic would be a good thread. Go for it.
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