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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

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Old 07-08-15, 09:44 AM
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Greipel wins again. Not a big fan of sprinting stages so glad that is over.
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Old 07-08-15, 09:54 AM
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Cavendish looked terrible, like he was pedaling through treacle. Sure he lost Renshaw's wheel and had to freestyle, but he launched the sprint while about even with everyone else, and only slowly passed Kristoff and Demare and EBH, then Griepel and even Sagan blew past him despite starting their sprints from further back. There was a significant headwind, but it didn't seem like they all went from terribly far out.

Commentators saying Cavendish went too early given the headwind and his opponents who are stronger into headwinds, but he went when the others went, not much choice there.

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Old 07-08-15, 10:09 AM
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Sagan looks like he has the power but his timing i believe is the issue. Either he breaks too early or too late like today.
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Old 07-08-15, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by jyl
Cavendish looked terrible, like he was pedaling through treacle. Sure he lost Renshaw's wheel and had to freestyle, but he launched the sprint while about even with everyone else, and only slowly passed Kristoff and Demare and EBH, then Griepel and even Sagan blew past him despite starting their sprints from further back. There was a significant headwind, but it didn't seem like they all went from terribly far out.

Commentators saying Cavendish went too early given the headwind and his opponents who are stronger into headwinds, but he went when the others went, not much choice there.
Sprinting is one of those things where once you lose your top top ability, it's dramatic. Not saying Cav is over the hill or old yet, but he's been in the sprint game a long time and it doesn't take very much at all to start losing more than winning.
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Old 07-08-15, 12:32 PM
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Both sprints Cav has lost so far this TdF have been into headwinds where he didn't get a good leadout (too early on stage 2, none on stage 5). And Griepel is on cracking form, and timed his sprint better. But the overhead shot of today showed Cav only slowly overtaking the other guys who he started sprinting with. That's not so good.

Pretty uneventful stage otherwise, I thought. All the main GC guys made the split, except Pinot who managed to chase back on. That's okay, I'd like the GC contenders to stay relatively close going into the TTT and then THE MOUNTAINS OF TRUTH.

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Old 07-08-15, 01:46 PM
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Cav and Kristoff both had a great spring season and both appear to be a gear slower than the rest, I wonder if the early season success is costing them some top end, IDK why it would, but to me they both appear a notch slower.

Griepel came flying past and Sagan did too, damn they looked fast!!!
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Old 07-08-15, 02:00 PM
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Interesting that both Cav and Segan were on older bikes today... Coincidence or is there something they don't care for on the Venge VIAS?.... Either way, not the best in terms of marketing a new bike for Specialized!
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Old 07-08-15, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by bauhaus92
Sagan looks like he has the power but his timing i believe is the issue. Either he breaks too early or too late like today.
Griepel and Cavendish have lead out people to place them in position to go at the right time. Sagan has to do it alone by picking his way through the wheels, so he doesn't always have the option to go at the right time. He had to come from way back today. If Griepel and Sagan has started their sprint at the same point, Sagan would have had him by at least 5 bike lengths. Seems like Tinkoff-Saxo could give him some help on stages like today, it's not as if they had anything else to do in the last 2 km.
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Old 07-08-15, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by sprince
Griepel and Cavendish have lead out people to place them in position to go at the right time. Sagan has to do it alone by picking his way through the wheels, so he doesn't always have the option to go at the right time. He had to come from way back today. If Griepel and Sagan has started their sprint at the same point, Sagan would have had him by at least 5 bike lengths. Seems like Tinkoff-Saxo could give him some help on stages like today, it's not as if they had anything else to do in the last 2 km.
Considering what an jacka#% Oleg Tinkov is, I wouldn't be surprised if he threatens the director to hold back the team from helping him.
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Old 07-08-15, 04:45 PM
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I like sprint finishes, so I watched that one again. And my conclusion is, Cavendish screwed it up.

2.0 km to go, Martin is leading (P1) two EQS guy and then Cav, on the right side (right and left are from the riders' point of view).

1.8 km, Giant comes up the middle to take the lead. Martin peels off and EQS' remaining three guys are still on the right side. Griepel and his Lotto guy are behind the Giant train.

1.2 km, the riders are moving to the left to set up for the right hand turn. Giant's three remaining guys including Degenkolb are leading and still in the middle, EQS' three guys including Cavendish are behind and still on the right, Griepel and his Lotto guy are following the Giant train, a little behind EQS, and EuropCar has squeezed in there too.

1.1 km, the lead EQS guy looks behind then accelerates up the right past the lead Giant guy, the Lotto guy has accelerated up the left to the front with Griepel following. Right here, Cavendish loses Renshaw's wheel, the gap between his front wheel and Renshaw's rear wheel opens from 1 bike length to 2, Renshaw is following the leading EQS guy but Cavendish has been detached and is about 10th place (P10).

1.0 km, Griepel has slotted in behind Renshaw, Sagan is behind Griepel, and Cavendish is behind Sagan, Kristhoff is behind Cavendish. Then Degenkolb gets in between Renshaw and Griepel, Sagan moves up past Cavendish on the right, Cavendish gets squeezed between a MTN Qubeka guy (EBH?) on his left and Sagan on his right and drops further back, still around P10.

500 m, they start the right hand turn. An EQ guy peels off (Trentin?), Renshaw is leading Degenkolb, Griepel, Sagan, EBH. Kristoff has moved to the left and is trying to come around on the outside of the turn. Cavendish is back there somewhere, out of sight.

400 m (graphic still says 500 m), they come out of the turn and onto the last straight, Renshaw is in first position over to the right, some Giant guy is in second position, they are followed on the right by Griepel then Sagan then Degenkolb, on the left by Kristoff and then Demare and EBH. Cavendish is behind Sagan, I'd guess P8. Now Renshaw starts his acceleration, the Giant guy starts his but looks over his shoulder then sits up, probably realizing Degenkolb is nowhere. Renshaw looks over his shoulder then eases up and moves over to the right, probably realizing Cavendish is nowhere. With both lead out men sitting up, the sprinter immediately following them is trapped, he has to go, whether they want to or not. That is Kristoff who starts his sprint up the middle, and passes Renshaw. Kristoff is in the wind, pulling Demare, Griepel, Sagan and EBH behind him in sort of an arrowhead formation. Degenkolb is trying to sprint up on the right, and now Cavendish appears, trying to sprint up on the left. Like Kristhoff, Degenkolb and Cavendish are fully in the wind.

300 m (the 300 m banner appears for an instant), Kristhoff is still leading, with Degenkolb in the wind to the right, EBH and Cavendish in the wind on the left, and Sagan and Griepel tucked in behind Kristoff. Cavendish moves right, tucks in behind Demare for an instant, then pulls out, trying to pass Kristhoff and Demare.

200 m (my estimate), three riders are line abreast, being Kristhoff (right) Demare (middle) and Cavendish (left). EBH is behind Kristhoff, Griepel is behind Cavendish, Degenkolb and Sagan are behind Demare.

100 m (my estimate) Griepel pulls out to the left and starts to pass Cavendish. Sagan has made a huge lateral move, and come up behind Griepel on the left. EBH is pulling even with Kristhoff on the right. Demare is still sprinting up the middle.

Finish line, EBH has faded to just behind Kristhoff, Cavendish has passed Demare and is just behind Kristhoff. Griepel and Sagan have come rocketing up the left to take 1st and 2nd.

As I see it, Cavendish screwed up by losing Renshaw's wheel, and there wasn't a good reason, he wasn't being squeezed at that point. Renshaw did his job, was in P1 at 400 m and could have launched Cavendish into P1 at 300 or 200 m. Instead, Cavendish got swamped, was something like P10 at 500 m, had to start his sprint way way early, was fully in the wind by 400 m, effectively lead out Griepel for the next 200 m. Griepel was so good, he tucked in behind and didn't have to get into the wind until around 200 m, that's how he got his 1st place. Sagan was great to take 2nd. All the guys who were in the wind early were dying by the line, Kristhoff lasted longest and managed 3rd. Edit: oh, did Cavendish get 3rd?

This is the second sprint that EQS have screwed up, the first was Renshaw's fault, this one was Cavendish's. Feels like they are too anxious, firing too soon, meanwhile Griepel is making all the right decisions, pretty giving a class in sprint positioning.

Last edited by jyl; 07-08-15 at 07:51 PM.
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Old 07-08-15, 05:51 PM
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My conclusion is, Griepel's got a bigger engine.
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Old 07-08-15, 06:07 PM
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Boy, this is one nervous peloton.

It used to be the bunch sprints were the anxious, crazy, nervous parts of the Tour, but now its not only the sprinters, it's the whole peloton that's so nervous just riding down a straight road. The teams riding for the GC are riding extremely hard all race long just to keep there riders safe. It's nuts how hard these teams are riding every minute of every stage. There seems to be no respite, no place a rider can hide for a awhile. No wonder the accidents, even on straight flat roads, keep increasing.

Exciting? Yes. But do I like it? Not sure...
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Old 07-08-15, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by LMaster
Still can't decide on Nibali. I need to see the first hard mountain stage to know. 2014 Nibali isn't breaking on anyones wheel. Nibali looks good, but there is a difference between being good and being on the best form you've ever had in your life.
The only reason Nibali was so dominate last year was he was the last man standing after the other big dogs crashed out. He was, however, lights out on the cobbles. Seems as if all the contenders upped their game and did a lot of work to prepare for this years ration of pave.

This is the second sprint that EQS have screwed up, the first was Renshaw's fault, this one was Cavendish's. Feels like they are too anxious, firing too soon, meanwhile Griepel is making all the right decisions, pretty giving a class in sprint positioning.
I think they realize Grepel is just too strong. Cav is no longer the dominate sprinter in the peloton. Actually he hasn't been for some time now.

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Old 07-08-15, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by TCR Rider
The only reason Nibali was so dominate last year was he was the last man standing after the other big dogs crashed out. He was, however, lights out on the cobbles. Seems as if all the contenders upped their game and did a lot of work to prepare for this years ration of pave.
No the difference was the weather.
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Old 07-08-15, 06:48 PM
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Probably a bit of both but rain would have certainly helped Nibali.
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Old 07-08-15, 06:59 PM
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Originally Posted by bauhaus92
Considering what an jacka#% Oleg Tinkov is, I wouldn't be surprised if he threatens the director to hold back the team from helping him.
Tour de France podcast episode 6: Greipel wins again | Cyclingnews.com

Around 20:00... there will be no help for Sagan, but he is free to do what he wants for the last 5k.
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Old 07-08-15, 07:33 PM
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Sagan is really impressing. Protecting and leading Contador all day until 3 km, then going off on his own and doing very well.
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Old 07-08-15, 07:41 PM
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Kristhoff is saying that he started his sprint far too early. He is known for his ability to do a long sprint. He started around 400 m. Cavendish started his shortly after Kristhoff did. Cavendish is not known for his ability to do a long sprint. I think those guys messed up, Kristhoff had no teammates to lead him out, when the Giant guy sat up Kristhoff had no choice but to go; Cavendish did have a lead out, but either intentionally abandoned it (bad decision) or couldn't hold it (bad legs).

I wonder if Cavendish is going to mentally regroup, or keep making mistakes.
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Old 07-08-15, 07:58 PM
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I hope Cav gets it together. I'd like to see him win a stage or two.

Sagan's doing great considering he's pretty much going lone wolf at the end of the stages. Probably gonna grab the green jersey again once the hills come into play. Should be a great tour.
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Old 07-08-15, 08:02 PM
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Only one opportunity left for Cavendish (or any of the other pure sprinters) before reaching Paris.

Sagan should have a really good chance tomorrow, although Degenkolb is probably eager to get something after what has been a less than stellar Tour for him.
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Old 07-08-15, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by TCR Rider
The only reason Nibali was so dominate last year was he was the last man standing after the other big dogs crashed out.
Yes, that is the only reason he was dominate and won by 7 minutes. I don't think for a second anybody else could have beat Nibali last year after he opened up the significant cobbles time gaps.

Nibali climbed VERY well last year. No, he wasn't going to ride the other GC guys off his wheel to multi-minute stage victories, but he would have had no problem staying right in there with anyone. Maybe some guys would have outkicked him the last few hundred meters of some of the climbs, but not to the extent to get the cobbles time back.

This time around Nibali doesn't have a nice cobbles lead...in fact he has the opposite. He will need to take some time in a unique way if he wants to win again because unless he is at some new, even more ridiculous level (which would be VERY suspicious), he is not riding away from any of those other three.
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Old 07-08-15, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted by PepeM
Only one opportunity left for Cavendish (or any of the other pure sprinters) before reaching Paris.

Sagan should have a really good chance tomorrow, although Degenkolb is probably eager to get something after what has been a less than stellar Tour for him.
How steep is it tomorrow at the finish? Should still be in it, but not as favored as he was today.

Stage 15 might be a chance for the sprinters too. There is a significant 8km climb of 5.5% to face, but it's over 50km out from the finish. Depending on how the race unfolds there is a shot from Etixx to bring Cav back up to the field in time for that sprint.
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Old 07-09-15, 12:19 AM
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The Le Havre finish is pretty steep.

C-Cycling - Tour de France 2015 Stage 6 Preview
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Old 07-09-15, 01:14 AM
  #274  
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Cav can't win on a steep sprint like that, I doubt he'll even try, EQS might try to set Kwiatowski up but he hasn't looked so great.

Maybe there will be wind and echelons.

Friday (stage 7) and then the Champs Elysee look like Cav's best chances.

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Old 07-09-15, 02:55 AM
  #275  
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Kwiatkowski's been working hard for the team, but that finish looks a bit Amstel-Goldy, and he romped away with that one, and there's no Gilbert at the Tour. I think that climb will be too much for Cav and Greipel, but not enough to shake Degenkolb and maybe Kristoff. Valverde should be in the picture too. It'll be an interesting one, a bit like the last km of Strade Bianche, even? Stybar to be the EQS wild card?
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