Who Will Win The Tour De France?
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I thought Froome was a little arrogant today when he attacked and found himself alone and unable to put distance between himself and the other GC guys. Contador and Nibali looked pretty good. But why is Quintana just sitting there? Is he waiting for the Alps?
#452
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Yes. I think he is waiting for the Alps. Sky has been protecting the yellow jersey for a week now and they still have a lot until the end. I think Quintana is waiting for the moment when Froome is isolated from his team. And I'm not sure that Porte and Thomas can hold this tempo until the end (later someone else fresher might replace them). Even if Sky can put someone next to Froome until the end, I think Quintana might have better chances at the end of the race. Until then he can strengthen his position on the podium.
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It is a pipe dream to think any one of the GC contenders can defeat Froome at this point. Unless something drastic happens to Froome (crash, withdrawal etc), I don't see any of his GC rivals defeating him. Then add his team and his killer instincts. Heck of a combo!.
If Froome is riding clean (a big caveat), he is one hell of a cyclist.
If Froome is riding clean (a big caveat), he is one hell of a cyclist.
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How in the heck did Gerrant Thomas get back in control of that race after Froome makes a silly, and yes, arrogant move past him? Ridiculous! Somebody, no, actually everybody, should have pushed the attack on Froome hard when he isolate himself for no good reason. Froome should have been made to pay for his arrogance!
I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.
TJ looked very steady today. He said he is waiting for the Alps.
Good to see some legs and life coming back for Contador and Nibali.
Yup, good race by Rodriguez!
Wow, long stage today! I'm tired just from watching it!
I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.
TJ looked very steady today. He said he is waiting for the Alps.
Good to see some legs and life coming back for Contador and Nibali.
Yup, good race by Rodriguez!
Wow, long stage today! I'm tired just from watching it!
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My read is that Quintana is running out of support while Sky's got a deep team. BMC's gaggle of TT specialists isn't really doing the job. Gotta admit it is exhausting to watch. 94 degrees to low 50's? Wow.
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Valverde is definitely the strongest right now, and he has been strong all season. There is still a lot of climbing. The next 4 days are not designated mountain stages but they are fairly lumpy and anything can still happen before the Alps. Something will malfunction with the Sky machine eventually... electronics failure, running out of the special sauce or the black palace is double parked and gets towed away.
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How in the heck did Gerrant Thomas get back in control of that race after Froome makes a silly, and yes, arrogant move past him? Ridiculous! Somebody, no, actually everybody, should have pushed the attack on Froome hard when he isolate himself for no good reason. Froome should have been made to pay for his arrogance!
I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.
I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.
Pierre Rolland says "the headwind helped me" stay in touch with the big dogs. If there was a headwind near the top, it really explains why none of the attacks could stick.
Last edited by Leinster; 07-16-15 at 09:03 PM.
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These will be stages where Valverde might be able to do some damage, but will he be tasked with pacing Quintana instead of attacking?
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Your 2nd para is probably the answer to the first. If Valverde's legs weren't as good as they are, he would've been tasked with driving at the front and ditching Thomas when he looked slightly suspect. There was nobody in the break that another rider could point to and shout "Hey, get to work." Except Thomas.
Pierre Rolland says "the headwind helped me" stay in touch with the big dogs. If there was a headwind near the top, it really explains why none of the attacks could stick.
Pierre Rolland says "the headwind helped me" stay in touch with the big dogs. If there was a headwind near the top, it really explains why none of the attacks could stick.
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Happy to see GvA win a stage, he was knocking on the door for a W all season long, was so close in the spring classics... Well done today.
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The teams that probably need questioning are Astana and Saxo, they seem to have a ton of climbers on their respective rosters and they weren't able to bring anyone to the tour with the right fitness to stay with their leaders. If Sky deserve credit it is for getting riders fit at the right time.
I thought the tactics were a little strange yesterday, Froome's attack seemed almost more emotional than anything. He only distanced his own teammate and Mollema who was barely hanging on. I can understand Movistar not sacrificing Valverde to set the pace set because that isn't going to do anything since Froome's tactic is already to follow strong wheels then attack. The only way it seems possible to unseat Froome is to attack repeatedly or send someone up the road from a long way out and even then the odds are real long. I don't think these displays by Saxo or Astana forcing the pace are going to do anything other than shell lesser riders but who knows, they may eventually wear Sky down and put Froome on the defensive. It was also curious to see Valverde attack when Nibali was of the front, which almost played into Sky's hands. Valverde isn't always the brightest bulb. Valverde may well be as strong or stronger than Quintana but he has a history of cracking at least one day or making a tactical blunder. Quintana seems to be mentally a lot tougher and has a history of getting stronger as the race goes along.
With only 1:12 separating places 2 through 6 the last week is going to be interesting for the podium. It would be nice to see Froome get gapped one day to make things exciting.
It’s a bit unfortunate for Greipel, and fan interest, that he got dropped today. This stage always looked like it would be the decider for the Green Jersey. I think the Tour organizers only implemented half the plan when it came to making things more difficult for Sagan to repeat. They added points for winning “sprint” stages but they didn’t put enough straightforward sprinter stages in the route.
Nice win by GVA!
8 stages left and 15 teams don’t have a stage yet. Must be some stressed out directors.
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Nibali was clearly being brought back when Valverde jumped, and it did precipitate Porte being dropped. Not a blunderous move by my reckoning.
The fact that the Tour Organizers changed the Green Jersey competition speaks volumes to just how good a rider Sagan is. I feel no sorrow at all for Greipel. Degenkolb and Cavendish both managed to not get dropped (at least not completely in Cav's case) up that hill. I think in the end, Sagan will still win, but not as comfortably as in some of the previous years. Now, they need to do more to Froome-proof the race, as that is more likely to cause interest to wane than anything else.
The fact that the Tour Organizers changed the Green Jersey competition speaks volumes to just how good a rider Sagan is. I feel no sorrow at all for Greipel. Degenkolb and Cavendish both managed to not get dropped (at least not completely in Cav's case) up that hill. I think in the end, Sagan will still win, but not as comfortably as in some of the previous years. Now, they need to do more to Froome-proof the race, as that is more likely to cause interest to wane than anything else.
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The organizers need to bring in snow for at least one mountain stage, ala Giro d'Italy '88. Can you imagine Froome staying with Andy Hampsten on tthat climb? On that descent?
Ben
Ben
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I guess we can agree to disagree on this one. Valverde clearly helped close the gap even if it was coming down. If he had waited until Porte closed the gap before attacking he might have distanced Porte earlier and hence put Thomas in harms way earlier, then had the chance to have Quintana isolate Froome. It probably makes no difference in the end.
There were similar shenanigans going on during the Dauphine and Nibali gave Valverde a serious staredown on that occasion.
I don't know so much about Froome proofing the Tour, it may be that he is purely the strongest right now but Nibali and Contador are clearly not at their best, Contador probably because of the Giro and Nibali possibly from a less than stellar off-season. If both were in top condition things might be more interesting. Quitana would be within striking distance if not for missing the split on day 2 and he still may put everyone into difficulty the last few days.
I also think that both Saxo and Astana have the riders on their roster to put together better teams for the Tour. It was clear from the layout of the course you needed a really strong group of flatlanders to get through the first week and then some strong climbers for the rest of it. Sky is lucky, or smart in recruiting, to have a couple of riders in Porte and Thomas that can do both, at least TTT well for Porte.
There were similar shenanigans going on during the Dauphine and Nibali gave Valverde a serious staredown on that occasion.
I don't know so much about Froome proofing the Tour, it may be that he is purely the strongest right now but Nibali and Contador are clearly not at their best, Contador probably because of the Giro and Nibali possibly from a less than stellar off-season. If both were in top condition things might be more interesting. Quitana would be within striking distance if not for missing the split on day 2 and he still may put everyone into difficulty the last few days.
I also think that both Saxo and Astana have the riders on their roster to put together better teams for the Tour. It was clear from the layout of the course you needed a really strong group of flatlanders to get through the first week and then some strong climbers for the rest of it. Sky is lucky, or smart in recruiting, to have a couple of riders in Porte and Thomas that can do both, at least TTT well for Porte.
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I also think that both Saxo and Astana have the riders on their roster to put together better teams for the Tour. It was clear from the layout of the course you needed a really strong group of flatlanders to get through the first week and then some strong climbers for the rest of it. Sky is lucky, or smart in recruiting, to have a couple of riders in Porte and Thomas that can do both, at least TTT well for Porte.
The best way to Froome proof the Tour is move it to Italy, in May.
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I just found an article online. He'd gone back to get water bottles and when he turned to look behind he must have touched a wheel and he went down. Says nothing is broken and he's going to start tomorrow.
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I'm floored, the DVR cut off the last 50 meters of the race! Arrgh!
First time that's happened. Looked like it was going to be a doozy of a finish to...
First time that's happened. Looked like it was going to be a doozy of a finish to...
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I was listening to a podcast yesterday concerning team sponsorship and one person stated that 80% of the value of a top tier team is generated during the Tour. So essentially you could win everything outside of the Tour and if you don't perform during the Tour you've had a bad season for the sponsors.
With all the money Saxo spent they haven't been able to bring a single rider to support Contador late in mountain stages in either the Giro or the Tour.
Astana just seems like a mess to me, they have some supremely talented riders but crazy management and a seriously spotty record with doping cases. It does sound like Landa is going to Sky so everyone should be prepared for him doing next year what Porte is doing this year for Froome. r maybe Sky will finally have someone that can do well in the Giro.
Without really having a rider that I totally support the best I can hope for is an exciting race and this year hasn't delivered at least for the overall.
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With Quintana the up and coming young GC contender and Valverde 35 years old (that'd definitely play with your mind). And with Porte rumoured going to BMC and QStep's Kwiatkowski rumored going to Sky, I'd think Movistar'd be in the serious acquisition mode for another strong man.
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