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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

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Old 07-23-15, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
I don't know, Talansky was a no-start for the Tour Of California due to allergies! ALLERGIES!

So I'm not sure Talansky has the right "attitude" or toughness to be a Tour winner. I'd like to be proven wrong, but a GT victory will/should go to TJ before Talansky. But good on him for improving his position.
In a sport where success is measured in lung capacity, and common over-the-counter remedies are banned because of a long history of abuse by drug cheats, an allergic reaction that blocks up a competitor's airways is a pretty valid excuse for not taking the start. Would've been great to see him there.


Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
Somebody mentioned the lame attacks that TV juiced up as being some great, almost legendary attacks. Boloney! They were lame, almost half-heartrted, with no chance of gaining any time on Froome. Froome has humbled the greats, and they know they have no chance to turn this thing around. He was easy/breezy out there today, and barely broke a sweat matching "attacks". Froome, if he continues on this path, might go down with the greats in the sport, as there seems to be nobody now, or on the horizon to match his talents. We are witnessing greatness, and sometimes greatness can be boring - Michael Schumacher, F1, comes to mind - but we should appreciate what we're seeing...
Just because Froome was able to cover them, doesn't mean that the attacks Contador, Valverde, Nibali and Quintana were making weren't big, hard, excellent attacks. It just means Froome is that good right now.

At the Vuelta last year, Contador was able to throw down attacks in the last week that Froome (and Valverde and Aru and Rodriguez) couldn't live with. I'd like to see him come back next year without a Giro in his legs, and see what he's got in a straight matchup with the others.
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Old 07-23-15, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
If BMC think they're buying Tejay's replacement in a 30 year old with 1 top 10 finish in a GT, I think they're going to be very disappointed. Porte is as good and consistent a 1-week racer as there is in the sport right now, but for whatever reason, even allowing for bad luck, he's been disappointing the last 2 times he's had to lead the team at a 3 week race.

BMC are an American team who have in TJ an American rider who could, course and luck premitting, win a Grand Tour at some point in the next 5-6 years. I think it would be very shortsighted to tell him "We think you aren't quite getting it done, so we're gonna have to ask you to ride support for this guy, who's not even Froome's number 1 water carrier any more."
I agree with you on this
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Old 07-23-15, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
At the Vuelta last year, Contador was able to throw down attacks in the last week that Froome (and Valverde and Aru and Rodriguez) couldn't live with. I'd like to see him come back next year without a Giro in his legs, and see what he's got in a straight matchup with the others.
That's the whole problem, people talk about the Giro-Tour double. But it's actually about winning two grand tours in a row and then adding a third. I thought it was a bad idea when I first heard for that reason alone, 3 tours in 12 months is a lot of racing, regardless of the calendar year. Going back to last year's tour, that's 4 grand tours in a row started, with a significant injury to overcome. Pantani, or even Merckx never did that, because it's crazy. As for next year, I'd rather see him in another Giro. But in any case he already has more grand tour wins than all but Hinault and Merckx, so he has nothing to prove even if he decides to call it quits in 2016. Nibali and Froome would have to win at their current rate far into their 40's to ever come close to that. However Quintana still has plenty of time.
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Old 07-23-15, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
In a sport where success is measured in lung capacity, and common over-the-counter remedies are banned because of a long history of abuse by drug cheats, an allergic reaction that blocks up a competitor's airways is a pretty valid excuse for not taking the start. Would've been great to see him there.
I am very impressed with Froome. Not just his ability to ride long hard climbs and ferciously attack in the final kms, not just his instinct to attack and win, but also his ability on the cobbles, in the x-winds, and his mental toughness during attacks in the race and after the day's racing. I wish he was a prettier rider, but I remember how people criticized Frazier, Connors, and Bird for being ugly in one way or another. Not everyone can be Ali, Laver, or Magic. Well, maybe Laver wasn't super pretty - maybe substitute Rosewall or Ashe.

That said, I'm still rooting for Q. The little guy, y'know? And the only one of the challengers who is actually worrying Froome. Sky could care less about Nibali or Contador's attacks, but they respond when Q (or V) dig.
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Old 07-23-15, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
In a sport where success is measured in lung capacity, and common over-the-counter remedies are banned because of a long history of abuse by drug cheats
Yeah, except that 40% of the peloton have asthma and are allowed salbutamol.
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Old 07-23-15, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
If BMC think they're buying Tejay's replacement in a 30 year old with 1 top 10 finish in a GT, I think they're going to be very disappointed. Porte is as good and consistent a 1-week racer as there is in the sport right now, but for whatever reason, even allowing for bad luck, he's been disappointing the last 2 times he's had to lead the team at a 3 week race.

BMC are an American team who have in TJ an American rider who could, course and luck premitting, win a Grand Tour at some point in the next 5-6 years. I think it would be very shortsighted to tell him "We think you aren't quite getting it done, so we're gonna have to ask you to ride support for this guy, who's not even Froome's number 1 water carrier any more."
You could be quite right but I'll bet it's in TJ's head right about now. Personally I don't think TJ, while being a gifted rider, is not a top tier talent. He's been a pro for what 5 years now? I'm just wondering how long was Contadore a pro before he won a Grand Tour or Froome for that matter.
Have you thought that Porte is not Froome's number 1 domestic anymore is because he is leaving or is not satisfied in that role anymore.
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Old 07-23-15, 09:14 PM
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I think Sky is trying to protect Thomas' #4 position on GC, which means keeping him with Froome as long as possible, rather than burning him up earlier in the stage. Burn up Porte, Konig, etc first and give Thomas a chance to stay with the GC group to the end.
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Old 07-23-15, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by TCR Rider
You could be quite right but I'll bet it's in TJ's head right about now. Personally I don't think TJ, while being a gifted rider, is not a top tier talent. He's been a pro for what 5 years now? I'm just wondering how long was Contadore a pro before he won a Grand Tour or Froome for that matter.
Have you thought that Porte is not Froome's number 1 domestic anymore is because he is leaving or is not satisfied in that role anymore.
Well that's easy enough to research. Contador turned pro in the 2003 season, and won his first Tour de France aged 24 in 2007. Froome turned pro aged 22 in 2007, and won his first (and so far only) GT aged 28, in the 2013 Tour de France. And Tejay joined the World Tour ranks aged 21 when he signed for HTC for the 2010 season. Most Grand Tour winners are in their mid-late 20s; the average TdF winner's age is 27.7, apparently, which is just below Tejay's age next July.

He's getting to the age where he has to make that next step up, but he has 2 top 5 finishes to his credit, which is as much as Wiggins had before his Tour win aged 32. So while the clock is ticking, it's got a way to go yet.
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Old 07-24-15, 05:53 AM
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Rain, going to be crashes.
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Old 07-24-15, 05:55 AM
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128 km. Here we go, stage 19, maybe the hardest in the Tour, televised from km 0. Just 7 km into the stage, it is already a cat 1 climb, Col de Chaussy, pouring rain, and Contador is attacking. He's pulled back by Valverde.

126 km. Nibali attacks, 4 km from the summit, behind him Contador and V go again. They get into the lead group, about 20-30 sec ahead of the Froome group aka peloton. Scarponi is at the front of the lead group. Behind, Sky is driving the peloton. I don't think Froome can ignore a 20+ breakway with N AC and V in it.

124 km. Poels, Froome, Thomas lead the peloton. A couple km ago, there were 5 Sky domestiques leading Froome. The lead group and peleton are only 15-20 sec separated. Nibali is at the front of the lead group, 1 km from the summit, attacking - I think he wants to get to the descent clear of the others.

122 km. Thomas is OTB. Froome has only Poels left, and we are just 12 km into the stage. The race crosses the summit. The groups have broken up. Nibali is near the lead, riders are scattered behind him, Froome is in a group around 10 sec back. The descent is narrow, twisty, and wet. Riders are being cautious. The French TV stream I'm watching is really blurry. Damn.

118 km. Froome is pushing hard on the descent. He has caught and passed Nibali, V follows. No Sky helpers in sight. I think Uran and Bardet lead.

114 km. Road dry here, riders pushing harder on the descent. Barbet extends lead over Uran. Thomas has chased back to the Froome group.

112 km. Froome is leading his group, really pushing. No GC threat ahead of him, but he is racing hard. Road is wider now, still a twisty descent but two lanes, not a single lane as it was.

108 km. It is lumpy/flat for the next 30 km so I'm going to get coffee, the peloton should regroup.

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Old 07-24-15, 06:01 AM
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Hopefully the stage will end with a little SRV.

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Old 07-24-15, 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by jyl
128 km. Here we go, stage 19, maybe the hardest in the Tour, televised from km 0. Just 7 km into the stage, it is already a cat 1 climb, Col de Chaussy, pouring rain, and Contador is attacking. He's pulled back by Valverde.

126 km. Nibali attacks, 4 km from the summit, behind him Contador and V go again. They get into the lead group, about 20-30 sec ahead of the Froome group aka peloton. Scarponi is at the front of the lead group. Behind, Sky is driving the peloton. I don't think Froome can ignore a 20+ breakway with N AC and V in it.

124 km. Poels, Froome, Thomas lead the peloton. A couple km ago, there were 5 Sky domestiques leading Froome. The lead group and peleton are only 15-20 sec separated. Nibali is at the front of the lead group, 1 km from the summit, attacking - I think he wants to get to the descent clear of the others.

122 km. Thomas is OTB. Froome has only Poels left, and we are just 12 km into the stage. The race crosses the summit. The groups have broken up. Nibali is near the lead, riders are scattered behind him, Froome is in a group around 10 sec back. The descent is narrow, twisty, and wet. Riders are being cautious. The French TV stream I'm watching is really blurry. Damn.

118 km. Froome is pushing hard on the descent. He has caught and passed Nibali, V follows. No Sky helpers in sight. I think Uran and Bardet lead.

114 km. Road dry here, riders pushing harder on the descent. Barbet extends lead over Uran. Thomas has chased back to the Froome group.

112 km. Froome is leading his group, really pushing. No GC threat ahead of him, but he is racing hard. Road is wider now, still a twisty descent but two lanes, not a single lane as it was.

108 km. It is lumpy/flat for the next 30 km so I'm going to get coffee, the peloton should regroup.

Thanks for the commentary! Good day so far.

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Old 07-24-15, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by jyl
I am very impressed with Froome. Not just his ability to ride long hard climbs and ferciously attack in the final kms, not just his instinct to attack and win, but also his ability on the cobbles, in the x-winds, and his mental toughness during attacks in the race and after the day's racing. I wish he was a prettier rider, but I remember how people criticized Frazier, Connors, and Bird for being ugly in one way or another. Not everyone can be Ali, Laver, or Magic. Well, maybe Laver wasn't super pretty - maybe substitute Rosewall or Ashe.

That said, I'm still rooting for Q. The little guy, y'know? And the only one of the challengers who is actually worrying Froome. Sky could care less about Nibali or Contador's attacks, but they respond when Q (or V) dig.
Bird is absolutely one ugly S.O.B. no denying that

Originally Posted by sprince
Yeah, except that 40% of the peloton have asthma and are allowed salbutamol.
Hahahaha funny and sad at the same time

Originally Posted by TCR Rider
You could be quite right but I'll bet it's in TJ's head right about now. Personally I don't think TJ, while being a gifted rider, is not a top tier talent. He's been a pro for what 5 years now? I'm just wondering how long was Contadore a pro before he won a Grand Tour or Froome for that matter.
Have you thought that Porte is not Froome's number 1 domestic anymore is because he is leaving or is not satisfied in that role anymore.
That's definitely possible, why would sky do anything to help Porte get a high GC finish when he is leaving soon after, they would not do that.
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Old 07-24-15, 07:43 AM
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66 km. Rolland is out front, alone, headed toward the Col de la Croix de Fer. A large group 1 min behind him. Then 3 min back is peloton with Froome and the other GC guys. Sky regrouped on the flat, and Froome has four men in black with him. But they sure were dropped fast at the start of the stage. Astana is starting to drive at the front of the CF group. I've switched to a Eurosport UK stream but I have no commentary, weird, just ambient noise.

64 km. The second group has Rogers and Krueziger, Uran is trying to breakaway. Long straggling line of guys shelled from third group/peloton, including Porte and Thomas.

63 km. Peloton has broken to pieces. Froome group is down to just N and another Astana guy, CF, Q and V, AC and tow other Tinkovs (I think one was picked up from the second group), and Poels is hanging off the back. The other Astana guy is gone. N is driving. Now it is just N AC Q V CF and these five are carving through the broken up remains of the second group. They keep picking up teammates shelled from the second group, I guess they were sent ahead to help but these advance guys don't seem to have much spark by the time they are caught. Rolland remains out front. Uran is leading the closest chase group. CF group is now 2 min down on Rolland.

60 km. Rolland still ahead. Uran dropped from the nearest chase group, which is down to one guy, Plaza. Froome group has gotten larger as it has absorbed most of what used to be the second group. Astana has two guys leading N and they are driving. Then Q V CF AC. V attacks. CF and his one Sky guy, who is he?, let him go. V has caught up to Plaza. They are only about 50 m ahead of the CF group. No commentary on my feed, but it looks steep.

59 km. V and Plaza are dangling off the front. V is looking back for Q. They are brought back. Rolland all alone, 2 min ahead. He's lost about 15 sec in the last few km, but is only about 3-4 km from the summit.

58 km. Froome was drifting back, then stopped. Was unclipped. Not sure why. He started up and is chasing back. Has regained contact w/ the back of his group. N attacked off the front. All this is happening in slo-mo. Excruciating climb. Froome has lost contact, he is alone, no Sky guy in sight. N has a considerable gap.

57 km. CF has chased back. Goes to the front of the diminished group. He is a fighter. I'm guessing the others, Q V AC etc, figured no point in burning matches to get a small gap, since they are so close to the summit. N still out of sight ahead.

56 km. Rolland still 1:56 ahead of Froome group. N is 1:20 back from Rolland. He is on a flatter part and pushing hard. Really too bad he didn't have these legs earlier in the race.

55 km. Rolland has summitted. N has summitted. Bardet is getting swept up by the CF group, didn't realize he was out there.

53 km. This looks like a fast descent. High speed winding sections then hairpins. N is 1 min behind Rolland. CF group 1:50 back. Froome is laying it out there. Rolland drained a can of something between turns, jeez that is confidence. Well, he did almost run off the road just now. N almost ran off at the same spot. So did V, 30 sec back.

47 km. Rolland has lost 5 sec on the descent so far. They are about 4 km from the start of a cat 2 climb. Back in the CF group, Plaza and Bardet attack, V follows, the group speeds up. They had slowed a bit. Rolland picked up 10 sec.

42 km. Wow, Pinot is at the back of the CF group. Means he kept up on the descent, or caught up w/ them, not sure which. Rolland has picked up another 10 sec. He is pushing hard, N is too, the CF group is backed off a bit.

41 km. Starting Col du Mollard climb. I'm going for a coffee refill.

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Old 07-24-15, 08:31 AM
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58 km - Sorry, Phil. The yellow jersey messing up a shift is not an excuse that should exempt him from being attacked.
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Old 07-24-15, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
This made me laugh. I didn't even know this was a thing, let alone that UCI would take it seriously enough to conduct legitimate searches.
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Old 07-24-15, 08:43 AM
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36 km. Rolland still 2:10 ahead of CF group. N is 47 sec back from him. 34 sec now. Has Rolland in sight. Rolland seems in a little trouble. I'm back on the French feed. Blurry but at least there is commentary. 22 sec back for N. N looks strong. Getting close to summit. N is just 50 m back from Rolland. French announcers are desolated.

34 km. Rolland and N summit. Behind, Bardet attacks from the CF group. Followed by Pinot. N has caught Rolland on the descent. N talks to Rolland, wants to work together.

33 km. The Sky guy w/ CF is Poels. Haven't seen Thomas in a while.

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Old 07-24-15, 08:49 AM
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Did I mention I love descents?
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Old 07-24-15, 08:53 AM
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29 km. Bardet chasing but seems to have a problem, keeps unclipping his right foot and kicking something, his front derr maybe? Raises his hand for help. Going to be a long wait for his car to catch up. He keeps riding.

26 km. Graphic says Thomas is truly dropped, 9 min back.

20 km. Bardet keeps looking for his car. Gets a bike change I think - I looked away for a sec? Is passed by the CF group. Crap.

19 km. N and Rolland have 1:50 lead. They have started the last climb to La Toussiere.

17 km. AC changes bikes. Has chased back. CF group is led by V and another Movistar guy, then Poels CF Q. Q must have his jaw wired shut, he never opens his mouth. Then AC and two teammates, Bardet, others.

16 km. Rolland has lost contact with N. Rolland suffering. Doing the faces of pain. N is 2:00 ahead of CF group.

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Old 07-24-15, 08:58 AM
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The Live Tracker says it's a mechanical. At least it is on the downhill. He's stuck on the small chainring.

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Old 07-24-15, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by PepeM
Did I mention I love descents?
Me too, again I long for a twisty descent longer than 1 mile...

Originally Posted by seypat
The Live Tracker says it's a mechanical. At least it is on the downhill.
Watching Eurosport feed, he is stuck in small ring going downhill, that's not the gear to be in. Battery died maybe?
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Old 07-24-15, 09:05 AM
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Front derailleur is bent. Sure the pounding and kicking didn't help.
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Old 07-24-15, 09:06 AM
  #823  
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Originally Posted by WCroadie
Me too, again I long for a twisty descent longer than 1 mile...


Watching Eurosport feed, he is stuck in small ring going downhill, that's not the gear to be in. Battery died maybe?
Froome looked to have an FDb issue as well going up the HC mountain... Then again he's using the dork oval rings which invite such issues
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Old 07-24-15, 09:06 AM
  #824  
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Originally Posted by USAZorro
58 km - Sorry, Phil. The yellow jersey messing up a shift is not an excuse that should exempt him from being attacked.
report was stone jammed in front brake of Froome's bike.
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Old 07-24-15, 09:11 AM
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We'll see how long Poels can hold on.
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