Bacciagalupe

Because you have an emotionally based dislike for Andy Schleck?


Oh, please. Many people on BF were dumping on Contador and lionizing Schleck last year, especially when AS dropped his chain. He hasn't behaved any differently this year than last year.

Let's face it, few riders can match Contador in the mountains when he's in good form, and AS is one of them. He made a daring attack on a critical stage this year; in contrast, Evans rode consistently but also very defensively (good tactics but kind of boring to watch). Even given his relatively weak TT abilities, it doesn't make sense to underestimate AS, let alone treat caricatures of him as factual descriptions.

And let's not forget that Evans had a pretty bad rep and was runner-up for years and years before he finally won the TdF, and his mean streak still rears up on occasion. "Cuddles" is not exactly a nickname of affection.


Like who? Levi can barely keep up in the GT's, Horner is not a GC guy. As for Germans, who? You can't seriously mean Klöden.

GrayJay

In light of todays news that he is signing back with Astana, Jani Brajkovic's twitt from earlier this week comes across as ironic and nieve:

“JB never tried to sell me elsewhere, he'd never do that, He is a great and honest man who always tried to help.”

paperbackwriter

Alright, calling Bruyneel an honest man is funny but to be fair, I think in the end it wasn't Bruyneel who wanted Brajko to go, simply Brajko didn't want to stay. Jani would've been great for the team, more valuable than for example Fuglsang- but he's had enough of being a domestique. It was still a questionable move by Bruyneel because first he got Jani to extend his contract just in case and then everything went crazy but I doubt he wanted to get rid of him at all, not to mention selling him, all RS riders are free to go anyway.

BTW, Andy gave an interview (in French) https://www.cyclismactu.net/news-inte...quo-19638.html . Doesn't seem to look forward to working with Johan but says merger is the best thing that could happen to Leopard. On the side note, he also says "other races (than the Tour) are just there to reassure him". Seriously?

Bacciagalupe

Yes, seriously. He's basically saying "I'm focusing on the Tour de France." Seems pretty standard these days.

OrionKhan

This has been my view of Andy as well. I really think Andy would be better served taking a year off from the Tour and trying to win some other races. Like the Giro or Vuelta, and one of the shorter stage races. He won L-B-L back in 2009. Outside of that, just some of national titles (no offense to the Luxembourgers). At his age, I think he became a Tour specialist to early. He had a team built around him. And now there's a lot of pressure on him to produce a win. But he hasn't demonstrated the ability to win the big race. And the frustration shows when things don't go his way. It's to bad, because he is a very talented young rider.

paperbackwriter

As I've said before, there's a difference between focusing on the Tour and not giving a **** about anything else. Compared to Andy, even Armstrong looked super serious about races other than the Tour. But more than repeating myself, I was wondering if he finds being outclimbed by Mark Renshaw in his prep races reassuring.

I guess him not doing the Tour wouldn't make Radioshack happy, they probably didn't move to sponsor Schlecks to have to go to the Tour with 40 year olds again But focusing on a prestigious one week race won't ruin his preparation and he should definitely go for it. Also what could help massively is Frank doing Giro/Vuelta but I don't think Bruyneel or anyone else could convince them.

Lol @ Fuglsang who got promised leadership in the Giro but now probably thought again and realized it won't suit him at all. Giro announced an amazing stage with both Mortirolo and Stelvio, on penultimate day and of course, he has to whine already.

ultraman6970

I was wondering if he finds being outclimbed by Mark Renshaw in his prep races reassuring. <-- genius

Bacciagalupe

I don't think he gives a damn, as long as he is hitting his training goals. His performance in the ToC was underwhelming, but clearly did not result in him being terrified of Leipheimer or Horner, or in being worried about anyone other than Contador out-climbing him.

I'm also not convinced that coming in 2nd place in the TdF for several years in a row indicates a lack of discipline, or an inability to rally a team behind him. AS's biggest current obstacles for the TdF are that a) his TT and descending skills are not up to par for a Grand Tour win and b) Contador has gotten into his head. I really don't see why going b@!ls out on the Dauphiné is a solution for those problems.

Butcher

Because, the team is not named after a 'African big cat' but a tank pronounced LAY-o-pard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_1

tagaproject6

Really?!?!? ...and what was the TANK named after???

paperbackwriter

I don't agree Andy lost the Tour because of being a lesser descender and TTist. If it had been one of those years with a prologue and two ITTs- sure. But not on a route with 4 MTFs and one lumpy ITT, plus TTT that suits him. 2nd best climber in the world should have been superior enough to make a difference in the mountains. Hell, if his legs wouldn't have been good enough, whatever, but he didn't really try except the Galibier stage. And it's extremely naive to expect to win the Tour on one day (especially since differences aren't that big these days). Plus if you're an average TT rider and unlike your rival who's very good at it you don't even bother to check out the TT course, it's not about skills, it's just stupidity. And yeah, it shows lack of dedication and discipline when you compare him to his opponents.

What could taking other races more seriously change? I've given up on him becoming a real great champion long ago, in that sense he's not only miles behind Contador but also miles behind Nibali, Basso, hell, even David Arroyo. But actually trying in other events should improve his ability to read the race (the thing he certainly lacks), prepare him better for things like sketchy descents (when he's only forced to take them seriously once a year, no wonder he's more scared), stuff like that. And if he really competes against various guys during the season, it might also help to deal with Contador, recognize his opponents better, gain respect for them. Plus it would prepare him for the pressure of being the leader of the Tour, if he learned to do it in smaller races (riders themselves say it works like that).

I don't know if it would make him beat Contador, maybe not. But there are different ways of coming 2nd, not all of them laughable. I doubt that he'd be so frustrated if he knew he did everything- but he never does. And rightly or wrongly, thanks to his attitude he isn't really respected amongst fans and sometimes even other riders (Geraint Thomas joking about the descending thing, Chris Horner thinking he's a better climber , Robert Millar's critique). Perhaps he doesn't care but I think it would be good for him- not only on the sporting level- to try and change that.

Bacciagalupe

Schleck lost over 2 minutes on the final TT. He went from being up by nearly 1 minute, to down by 1˝ minutes. On a single day. On a TT that you assert "suited him."

In 2010, AS was down by 8s before the final TT, and 39s after.

In 2009, AS was down by 2m 26s before the final TT, and 4m 11s after.

With all due respect: Hello, McFly....


It's not that he "didn't try," that's just absurd.

Attacks like the Galibier are rare these days and extremely risky. Oh, and one reason it worked was because the other top GC'ers overestimated Contador, didn't counter because AC didn't counter, which allowed Schleck to zoom up the road unaccompanied.

And really, you can't pull a big surprise like that on every mountain stage. No one was going to let AS take off like that again if they could possibly help it.

Schleck didn't lose because of a lack of will. It's because he didn't have the legs on the last day, isn't a great descender and paid more attention to Contador than was ultimately warranted.

And let's face it, Contador teamed up with Sanchez several times. Even after he cracked, he was still a bigger threat than, oh, I dunno... "champion" Basso perhaps?


I really don't see why going into the ToC with the attitude of "I'm gonna win!" is really going to make a difference.

Either the DS's can improve his TT skills and drum better tactics into his head, or they can't.

paperbackwriter

I didn't say ITT suited him (though it did suit him more than pan flat course), I meant TTT (he had Cancellara, gained time on Contador, Basso and Sanchez- though by that time I'm not sure if he knew Sanchez existed).

You know he is an average TT rider, I know it, Contador and Evans know it and Andy himself as well. He has to count on losing around 2 minutes to GC riders who do it better, everyone knew all along to win the race he had to drop Evans in the mountains by minutes. What happened in Grenoble was always going to happen, what happened last year was always going to happen too. His card to play wasn't miraculously improving his TTing and matching Evans (which also meant matching Tony Martin), that's not why he was the biggest favo. He was expected to be aggresive in the mountains, he failed to use his strength and that's the main reason why he lost.
Cobo did a decent TT in the Vuelta but it's not like he wasn't behind. And it's not like he took it all back on one stage, he might have lost if he didn't attack on Farrapona even though it wasn't unreasonable to wait for Angliru. Hell, even Contador didn't win the Giro on one stage- he kept attacking until Macugnaga, while being in pink. All three were watched but a superior climber is supposed to be able to ride away whether someone like Cadel Evans lets him or not. Or at the very least try when the opportunity arises like Mosquera did in the Vuelta last year. He wasn't good enough but he tried everything to crack Nibbles and didn't look around for someone else to do it. Andy on the other hand spent three mountain stages too scared to work himself, to challenge others, to try and break injured Contador. He wasn't willing to risk losing his podium spot, his brother's podium spot and actually fight for the win, that in my book is not trying hard enough.

What Contador teaming up with Sanchez has to do with anything? It was of little consequence for Andy. The 1st time Contador did all the work because Sanchez was knackered, the 2nd time they didn't gain time, and that was it. And really, both needed to recover some time so even if they weren't friends, it would have made sense to go together. Such things happen all the time.
Basso is also pretty irrelevant, clearly the Etna crash ruined his preparation. Besides I doubt he can win the Tour at this point of his career, if he wasn't Puerto scapegoat... Anyway, Giro suits him a lot better and he did show greater things (than Andy in France) there.

So, do you think it's a coincidence Evans became a world champion and in the following season much better rider? And why do riders always say that doing well in this or that stage race prepared them for GTs? A week ago Contador gave an inteview and said it's a massive help for him and his team that they defend leader's jersey in different races too and that it makes it easier in GTs. Or take Gilbert, how many times he attacked in the wrong moment, how many of his efforts were called useless before the season like this came- he grew stronger but also learned from his mistakes. If you don't race for the win, you don't make mistakes and don't learn. Gaining experience on the road is often more valuable than what DS can teach you. It took years for Evans do notice that he can't follow at all costs, I believe some DS must have told him before but you have to live through some situations to learn to deal with them.

Bacciagalupe

Whatever dude, Leopard lost what, 1s to BMC in the TTT?

Plus I was pretty clear that time trials are a key weakness for AS, e.g.:

I'd say that pretty much proves my point. If he can count on losing 2 minutes to a major competitor in a single time TT, and he loses a tour by 1m 30s, then yeah he's blowing it because he isn't a top TT'er.

And he doesn't need to blow everyone away at the TT. He merely has to do well enough on the TT's to stop losing over 2 minutes to his top rivals.

To be clear I don't view this as a trivial task, only that it's a major factor in his losses, and can't be fixed by changing up his schedule.


OK, again... up by 2 minutes before the final TT, blew everyone away on the Galibier. Maybe he could've pushed harder in the earlier mountain stages, but might not have gotten away with (or be able to) make a big attack on 18 if he had. Contador (and maybe Rasmussen, when he was in top form, and assuming said form was not solely attributable to PED's...) is probably the only rider right now who could launch a big attack like that for multiple stages in a row.


I think it's pretty clear by now that the right rider at the right time can, in fact, take out enough time in a single stage to win. The 2011 Giro was unusual for a modern race in that Contador utterly decimated the field, a feat which took many days of consecutive Soul Crushing.

Would you feel better saying that "you can lose the Tour in a single day?" I really can't imagine any rational observer of the sport who would deny it.


Gosh, I dunno, two strong Spanish climbers -- one of whom had won every Grand Tour he entered -- crossing team lines to work with one another? Yeah, no threat there.

And I already pointed out that yes, AS paid too much attention to AC, though anyone would be a fool to completely count him out. (Nor was he the only one to make that mistake, the problem is he persisted longer in that error than the other top GC'ers.) It's a tactical error he needs to correct, but he isn't going to fix this by going 100% in the Vuelta.


Yes. I'm sure that Evans is mentally strong enough not to have let a setback like "losing the worlds" drag him down.

Evans won this year because a) he had a top-notch team dedicated to supporting him, b) he had the legs, c) he played to his strengths, d) Contador was burned out and e) because he can TT.

I really don't see what aspect of that -- other than maybe getting top-notch team support -- is attributable to a 2009 Worlds win. (BTW he also only did 2 Giros and 3 Vueltas in the 9 years prior to winning the TdF... and competed in neither this year. Hmmmm)


I'd say it's pretty clear that AS has "lived through" multiple 2nd places. Maybe he'll smarten up after a few more years of pro competition, maybe not. But if his strengths and weaknesses aren't apparent to everyone including himself by now, I really don't see how winning the Dauphine is going to change that.

luxroadie

Ouch my head hurts from all of this reading ...

By the way Lay oh pard is pronounced that way because it is spelled that way - meaning in Europe you don't have long vowel sounds without tons of dots/dashes.

To pronounce vowels (particularly in French) put an "H" onto the vowel - so it would be L - EH - OH - P - AH -R - D.

The way it is pronounced has nothing to do with whether it came from the Tank or the Animal (which is whom the Tank was named after!! Speedy thing that they both are/were).

Thanks, Tom