I'm still new to the road (700miles) with my road bike. 16 years old.

Just because i'm paranoid and curious, i just wanted to ask; how likely is it to get a broken spoke during a 30 mile ride, then a 50mile+ ride. And what factors contribute to a broken spoke? And what should one do if it does break?

Thanks.

If your wheels are properly tuned up and well built the likliehood of breaking a spoke is pretty low under normal riding conditions.

People who ride epic distances and carry large loads often carry spare spokes and the tools to replace them but most folks don't.

Broken spokes are most often caused by improper / insufficient tensioning which leads to fatigue and breakage.

A broken spoke could happen on a 3 mile ride - when it's time for it to go, it will go.

If you're on 32 spokes per wheel then it's not a huge concern, though carrying a spoke wrench is a good idea if you want to be able to get home should a spoke break.

And if you don't want to carry a spare spoke, check out the "fiber fix" temporary spokes, they're pretty cool.

Sixty Fiver is right on!
The best way to minimize the chances of breaking a spoke on any distance of a ride is to be sure there is no metal fatigue in the properly tensioned existing spokes. I am not aware of an easy way to know the existing fatigue level other than to start out with new spokes. Having not being used they should not have metal fatigue. Maybe you know the history of your spokes and can 'guess' there hasn't been much use so as to cause fatigue. The metal in spokes fatigues by being put through repetitive stress cycles as you ride the bike, one stress cycle for every wheel revolution. The metal usually fatigues to the point of breaking at the spoke head bend but also can at the threads. Best way I know to minimize that is to use double/triple butted spokes (as opposed to straight spokes) and (here is the most important part) make sure the spokes are tensioned properly. That encompasses several things but critical is that the spokes be under high tension but not high enough to damage the rim.

If you have a wheel with DB spokes which are properly tensioned you have the most durable and strongest wheel possible with the existing hardware you have! And You have the least likelyhood of having a spoke break or the wheel go out of true!

i'll add, low spoke count wheels and potholes don't go too well together either.

ftfy

My first job of the day yesterday was to service a pair of Bontrager Race wheels which are 20 radial (front) and 24 2 cross (rear) built up with bladed spokes... these are also a paired spoke design.

Let's just say that these would not be my choice for the daily commute and although the front wheel was great the rear wheel needed some serious care and attention as a 1000 miles of commuting had taken it's toll.

If the wheel is not out of true enough to rub, continue your ride. If it causes the wheel to rub the brake pads, then open your brake's quick release to give the wheel more clearance, and finish your ride. Then be a bit careful decending because your brake may have less stopping power since the extra brake lever travel may allow the lever to hit the handlebar.

I have never broken a spoke (knock on wood). Much of it is weight and strenght, both of which I have little of.