With global recession.Chinese labor issues I see manufactures dropping prices on items currently sold for higher prices coming 2012.
Already one can buy great CF frame for 399
Tommaso Team Carbon Road Bike Frame
and this trend will continue.
I find some of the frames suspiciously similar and I suspect they are made in China in same factories and simply re-badged with different names.
I am looking forward to buy good CF frame for $250

Good luck with that.

You are dreaming and you can't buy a good CF frame for $399 now. You can but a frame with fiberglass lugs wrapped in carbon for 399 now.

The bike industry uses less than 5% of global carbon fiber production. The demand is increasing in other sectors.

Carbon pricing already dropped for 2011 model bikes. I doubt it will drop much further. Even if it did a 50% cost is materials would not result in a 30% drop in the price of the finished product.

Chinese labour costs are rising.

Transportation costs are rising.

Oil prices have risen and will stay there.

In short, not going to happen.

This.

And if you want Ti, better buy NOW. The 787 is now ramping up production - that airplane alone will consume more than 40% of the world's capacity. Material cost will skyrocket - labor will stay the same to form and prep and weld - but the material cost will jump significantly.

fify

Nobody cares.

I noticed some Lynskey frames went up over 10% in price recently ($1595 to $1795). I'll probably never get one now.

Yea, I hate that - I doubt I will ever afford one. You have no idea how many thousands of pounds of Ti for bike frames went out of our factory with my signature on the testing - had I been into cycling earlier, I would have my Ti framed bike(s).

That sucks.

Nah......ain't gonna happen.
Besides what others have said, which I agree with, including pcad to some degree, it is actually becoming more scarce. The automotive, areospace and manufacturing fields are gobbling up the stuff in droves.

I too am waiting for a global drop in demand for aluminum and batteries so I can pick up some Di2 for around $250...maybe 2013.

I don't know whether others getting more into using is necessarily a bad thing. It's possible for demand to lower prices when there are more manufacturers entering the market to compete for their share.

I'm sure BobDop can chime in here.

Aluminum frames are usually the best deal out there and functionally, handily compete with all of the other materials. No need to worry.

I could afford one, but I couldn't justify one (to myself). If I end up riding 5000mi+ a year - then I'd consider it. My aluminium bike suffices a bit too well.

Increased competition: lower prices
Increased demand: higher prices
Increased material demand: higher prices
Increased labour costs: higher prices
Increased transportation costs: higher prices
Increased fixed costs: higher prices

That's what I'm seeing. What conclusion would you draw?

You also have to think in scale. If fixed costs are the same (but actually rising) but you produce less items (because sales are off) per unit cost actually rises. China is good at producing mass qty. As those qty fall so does the pricing advantage.

I'm no economist so if there is someone here who is, and I'm wrong, I'd love to be educated.

I would defer to your knowledge of the industry. I don't think prices are coming down anytime soon, anyway, but I was wondering what the market outlook is from someone who is/has been actually involved in the market.

why did you have to show us that? you are a bad man. a very, very bad man.

Exactly

Honestly... true.

Tommaso's are utter garbage. If I hear that brand being described as a "great carbon frame" again, I may cry.

I have not owned one but based on reviews including online bike magazines all say they are great frames perhaps great in relative to cost.
In what way they are garbage.Just curious.Personal experience? or just saying it.

Ok I am truly an amateur but remember 1st flat TV' came out?Expansive but now you can buy 42" for $300
I just think everyone soon will figure out how to produce same thing cheaper.Think of IT micro chip prices,parts 5yrs ego and now. CF will become very common due to flooding of the market.Lot of folks already buy those Chinese frames on Ebay $400 and are happy.

There no flood of materials. As far as I know there are still only two sources of carbon thread.

I am at an industy show now so I will get a real sense of what is going on over the next few days. Right now it seems like Europe and NA are of 20%-30% for new bike sales. That doesn't mean that P&A is also down but, as I said, I will have a real sense of where things stands by Thursday.

Skilled labor costs in the Pacific Rim have doubled in the past 7-8 years, and that's the kind of labor that builds pricey bike frames and componentry, it's not ditch digging. If anything that trend appears to be accelerating, not abating. That and increased shipping costs are what will make cheap Asian bike stuff pricier going forward, much more than any rise in the price of materials. I think Bob is pointing that out in his post above.

I think it may well eventually reach a tipping point where some fabrication moves back to North America and Europe; that is already happening in select industries, and that could become more widespread.