I will be riding on the best possible equipment I have for the conditions - my current conditions are deep snow cover, and I will be riding a fat bike with 4" studded tires, over predominately plowed/cleared streets and some un-groomed trails where prior traffic has compacted the snow significantly. When we get new snowfall, it could be anything from powder to cement, depending on the temps/moisture content.

Instinct tells me that the risk of a wipeout is greater in the winter ... I am cautious in the winter when I ride in a way I'm not when there is no ice or snow on the ground -- take corners slower, brake sooner, that sort of thing.

But, just trying to puzzle out how much of my caution ... perhaps anxiety is a more accurate word ... is actually supported by the physics and engineering of the situation.

For the sake of keeping the variables at a minimum, what would be the relative risk of a wipeout on a fat bike with 4" studded tires in the winter versus on a road bike with 700x23c slicks in the summer? IF such a thing can be known at all.

Any bicycle tire on ice and snow is going to have less traction than a road tire on dry pavement. The risk of crashing depends on how you ride and your skills, right?

Just a guess since I doubt there are stats on this question, but here are my estimates:

Relative risk of falling on a fat bike vs. road bike is somewhere between 50 to 100 times more when measured in falls/mile ridden.
Relative risk of serious injury on a road bike vs. a fat bike is probably 50 to 100 times more when measured in serious injury/mile ridden.

Cyclists are much more likely to fall on a fat bike because ice and snow are slippery and unstable. But they are much more likely to get hurt on a road bike because they are going much faster, landing on a harder surface and not wearing as much protective clothing. I have to believe that serious injuries from falling off a fat bike in the snow are very very rare.

You want Odds like 1 in 6 chance?

I have 26 x 1.9 studded tires and I ride slowly and carefully and my actual number of falls (sober) is near zero .

I do feel sketchy on Ice, walking so I'm buying 'Street crampons' for my Shoes..

The OP is asking for the relative risk which is a measure of how risky one thing is compared to another thing.

OP is bored an starting another hamster wheel thread to watch it spin.

No, actually just contemplating my relative risk of doing something stupid "AMA" - against medical advice - getting back on the bike again right after minor surgery -- carpal tunnel - without actually saying that, since I already know how stupid it is -- and I really don't need external confirmation of my own stupidity. If it's any consolation, I already got that at home last night when I left for my regular Tuesday night 1 on 1 session with my personal trainer -- we just did a lower body and ab workout, nothing that involved using my hand.

I had the same surgery last summer on my other hand, and without a second thought, resumed my regular riding schedule the next morning ... I guess it falls under category of HTFU or something, and was completely comfortable and unafraid of it.

Just wondering whether it's wise to do that in the winter -- not that it was wise to do it in the summer, but ... obviously falling on my wrist within a few weeks of surgery could be potentially problematic.

Realistically, my original question is probably unanswerable per se, unless someone has a lot of obscure statistics about winter cycling from some fat-bike manufacturer's R&D department. And even that would only be an "average risk" -- it's one of those cases where everything is fine --- until suddenly it isn't.

Just overthinking the whole thing, I know.

My gut instinct is I probably shouldn't ride for 2 or 3 weeks to be safe -- but I REALLY want to keep riding - had a slump in Sept-October, with cycling and a lot of other things, and I didn't like the way it felt NOT to be on the bike.

There is actually a valid question in there somewhere, although there is probably not a quantifiable answer to it -- is a properly outfitted "winter bike" inherently any less "safe" - in terms of stability and handling, than a "regular bike" under "typical" conditions (NOT talking about extreme riding conditions such as glare ice after a freezing rain event).

Oh, and, FWIW, I would LOVE the luxury of being bored.

If by against AMA you mean a doctor has actually told you not to ride due to a condition that can be exacerbated by a fall.....I would probably advise against riding. And I don't do **** doctors tell me to do lol

I ride in the winter, and I've never had a bad fall....but the chances are DEFINITELY there, and I've had a lot of close calls. A fat bike isn't going to help you one bit if you hit a patch of ice while braking or turning.

If you are looking for relative safety....look at it this way.

It is virtually impossible to lose traction on a bike on dry pavement. Even if you try to.

It takes constant vigilance and course planning to AVOID losing traction in the winter.

All very true and sage advice. However, I also "cherry pick" what medical advice I follow - there isn't a "one size fits all" solution to a lot of these things.

I know what I really SHOULD do ... haul the trainer out of the closet and just ride that until about New Year's Day. But, but, but ... it's just SO boring!

Oh god no! I tried that and really hate it.

If I couldn't ride outside, I'd either hit the heavy bag in my garage, or just give up and drink beer/watch basketball in my basement all winter.

and BTW...what's the medical issue? Or put it on this scale somewhere:


mildly sprained ankle----------------------------------------------------quintuple bypass heart surgery/leg amputation

Dave, you remind me of myself last year after the doctor told me to stay of my feet and NOT GO TO THE GYM after he told me a had a herniated disc between L4 and L5. Man that pain was terrible but I just could not stay at home doing nothing while I lost all of my gains from so many years of training. The truth is....take time to heal so you can have many days/years doing what you love to do! Thats the best advice I can give you.

I revised my post above to elaborate as you were posting your prior comments.

Carpal tunnel surgery ... about a 0.645 level event on a 1 to 10 scale - or as I told several people, I would far rather have that done than sit through the dentist drilling my tooth for a filling. The procedure is nothing ... the pain is minimal ... but a fall on it until it heals would be kinda bad.

Well... that is actual pain ... never had that, but I know it's awful.

I don't even have pain ... just mulling over what the surgeon said "just don't do anything to mess up my work!"

In that case, go riding and don't tell the doc. If you bite it, lead with your head not your hands?

I have to admit I'm baffled by responses that suggest go ahead, and put a successful surgical outcome at risk. I suffered a severe injury with surgery on 9/28. I was told I would recover 100% if I stuck with my PT regimen, and would be cleared by spring to get back out on the road. Beats not recovering 100% even with a lot of PT discomfort and yes, boring stationary cycling.

I dont know if any statisticians Or Insurance Actuaries are reading this forum.. Thats the work they do , risk probability calculations.

RE Post Surgery
relax .. heal dont push it wrist braces are made to rigudly suppirt your wrist but your Grip is not so good wearing them I Expect..

You on a Sit up straight cruiser Bike ? or do you lean way over on a Road Bike?

you OK riding 1 handed.. ??


My old MTB Winter bike has drum brakes and studded tires and I live in a small town .. Its quite stable , and Im Quite slow,
and dont Have to ride very far either .. Sorry I cannot generalize to apply to an un seen untested bike..


Consider a Trike for a while?



...

There's mo good or correct answer but I certainly wouldn't do it if I thought I could sabotage a successful surgery.
On another note, riding the other day with my "witerygear" I thought if I fell this would be the best time to do it, all padded up.

Well ... logic isn't really in play here - there is really only one logical answer to the question - NO RIDES for stipulated period of time - 2 - 4 weeks in my case.

This is a lot more about "that won't happen to me" - "I''m tough" - "I know better than the experts".

As stated previously, I am well aware of my own stupidity.

If you were really tough you wouldn't have gotten carpal tunnel surgery in the first place. Just take a few weeks off and enjoy some cross-training. I do a lot of winter riding and go down a few times every winter.

If any are, no doubt they are saying "The OP is a real idiot" It's ok, I admit it.

No, now that I've gotten this out of my system, I'll behave myself and just stay off the bike for a few weeks.

I'll do it, but I don't have to like it -- being a "responsible adult" stinks!

So true - if I were a real man, I would have just done the entire procedure myself with an Exacto knife and some super glue.

Clearly I'm risking nothing important if I do a pavement dive head-first

Studded tyres and some common sense go a long way. If you're careful you'll be fine. Ice is no problem with studs, especially if the road is not too bad (riding along car tyre tracks or on ploughed roads). Snow just makes you slow, but if it's deep enough to be slippery, it's usually deep enough to cushion a fall. Layer of snow over a layer of ice, with tyres not going all the way through the snow to catch the ice with the studs - that is a bit more slippery. But can be handled.

Like I said, common sense:
If not sure what surface you're facing, assume the worst until proven otherwise.
No hard accelerating, braking (unless an emergency, but try to look and plan ahead, anticipating other people's mistakes).
No sharp sudden cornering. Take extra caution when turning.
Be well lit, using reflective clothing - drivers probably won't expect a bicycle.

In my city, when there's snow, people who are bad drivers don't go out to drive. People who do drive are more cautious, the nervous. So riding in the snow is pleasant and often safer than in the summer (aggressive, nervous drivers often speeding and overtaking too close, with lots of clueless drivers and moms with phones and small kids screaming as a distraction... you name it...).

ur not going to fall

Well, thanks guys -- I really have decided just to not risk it. I can occupy myself other ways for 2 weeks -- not the end of the world.