Le Tour: The Race Thread
07-10-09, 07:11 AM
#176
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No, because I'm trying to teach you something about stage racing and you're either not listening or not able to process what I'm saying.
You are supposing two situations as comparable:
1) Lance Armstrong down 5:24 to Voeckler during the 2004 Tour de France. Yes, Lance came back to win that year (by one of his largest margins) but Voeckler was allowed to develop a 5 minute advantage because he was not a viable grand tour contender. Lance would never have allowed Ullrich, Basso or any other legitimate GC threat gain that much time.
2) Dennis Menchov down 4:36 to the Armstrong, Contador, Klöden, Vande Velde, Schleck. These are all legitimate GC threats who can climb and time trial as well, if not better, than Menchov. They are top GC contenders who will not let Menchov close the over 4-minute gap.
You are supposing two situations as comparable:
1) Lance Armstrong down 5:24 to Voeckler during the 2004 Tour de France. Yes, Lance came back to win that year (by one of his largest margins) but Voeckler was allowed to develop a 5 minute advantage because he was not a viable grand tour contender. Lance would never have allowed Ullrich, Basso or any other legitimate GC threat gain that much time.
2) Dennis Menchov down 4:36 to the Armstrong, Contador, Klöden, Vande Velde, Schleck. These are all legitimate GC threats who can climb and time trial as well, if not better, than Menchov. They are top GC contenders who will not let Menchov close the over 4-minute gap.
07-10-09, 07:14 AM
#177
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thanks. i didn't want to seem too heavy the Astana fanboy.
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07-10-09, 07:15 AM
#178
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No, because I'm trying to teach you something about stage racing and you're either not listening or not able to process what I'm saying.
You are supposing two situations as comparable:
1) Lance Armstrong down 5:24 to Voeckler during the 2004 Tour de France. Yes, Lance came back to win that year (by one of his largest margins) but Voeckler was allowed to develop a 5 minute advantage because he was not a viable grand tour contender. Lance would never have allowed Ullrich, Basso or any other legitimate GC threat gain that much time.
2) Dennis Menchov down 4:36 to the Armstrong, Contador, Wiggins, Vande Velde, Schleck. These are all legitimate GC threats who can climb and time trial as well, if not better, than Menchov. They are top GC contenders who will not let Menchov close the over 4-minute gap.
You are supposing two situations as comparable:
1) Lance Armstrong down 5:24 to Voeckler during the 2004 Tour de France. Yes, Lance came back to win that year (by one of his largest margins) but Voeckler was allowed to develop a 5 minute advantage because he was not a viable grand tour contender. Lance would never have allowed Ullrich, Basso or any other legitimate GC threat gain that much time.
2) Dennis Menchov down 4:36 to the Armstrong, Contador, Wiggins, Vande Velde, Schleck. These are all legitimate GC threats who can climb and time trial as well, if not better, than Menchov. They are top GC contenders who will not let Menchov close the over 4-minute gap.
See, I clearly stated that it was my opinion that it was too early to write off Menchov. He may indeed be done, but I maintain that he still has a chance. I might be wrong.
You, on the other hand, think you know what you are talking about to the point that should anyone disagree, you call them ignorant. As if.
Last edited by MitchellH; 07-10-09 at 07:20 AM.
07-10-09, 07:16 AM
#179
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You want to put your money where your mouth is?
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07-10-09, 07:23 AM
#180
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Your self-assurance is funny. Look at the history of the tour and tell me that overcoming a 5 minute lead after 6 stages is unprecedented other than by LA. Bet you can't.
See, I clearly stated that it was my opinion that it was too early to write off Menchov. He may indeed be done, but I maintain that he still has a chance. I might be wrong.
You, on the other hand, think you know what you are talking about to the point that should anyone disagree, you call them ignorant. As if.
See, I clearly stated that it was my opinion that it was too early to write off Menchov. He may indeed be done, but I maintain that he still has a chance. I might be wrong.
You, on the other hand, think you know what you are talking about to the point that should anyone disagree, you call them ignorant. As if.
07-10-09, 07:23 AM
#181
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Sure, I'll be that someone other than LA has won the tour after being down more than 5 minutes after stage 6. How much do you want to wager?
07-10-09, 07:25 AM
#183
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Nothing, because in the 96 years of tour history i'm sure at least a handful of people have done so.
I'm putting odds on Menchov coming back, which you seem so sure of:
Current odds put Menchov winning the Tour at between 150-1 and 200-1.
I'm putting odds on Menchov coming back, which you seem so sure of:
Your self-assurance is funny. Look at the history of the tour and tell me that overcoming a 5 minute lead after 6 stages is unprecedented other than by LA. Bet you can't.
See, I clearly stated that it was my opinion that it was too early to write off Menchov. He may indeed be done, but I maintain that he still has a chance. I might be wrong.
You, on the other hand, think you know what you are talking about to the point that should anyone disagree, you call them ignorant. As if.
See, I clearly stated that it was my opinion that it was too early to write off Menchov. He may indeed be done, but I maintain that he still has a chance. I might be wrong.
You, on the other hand, think you know what you are talking about to the point that should anyone disagree, you call them ignorant. As if.
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"When you are chewing the bars at the business end of a 90 mile road race you really dont care what gear you have hanging from your bike so long as it works."
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07-10-09, 07:27 AM
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You clearly are. The race is not finished, sure, but he's given up too much time to too many important people and that's the point. And they haven't even gotten to the climbing stages where the people ahead of him really shine.
07-10-09, 07:29 AM
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You are clearly missing the point. The bet would have to be down more than 5 minutes to someone who was considered to be a contended for GC. Down 5 minutes to some random breakaway is not relevant.
07-10-09, 07:30 AM
#187
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I don't think MitchellH is missing the point, I think he's caught on his heels and is trying to skirt the issue.
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07-10-09, 07:30 AM
#188
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I never said that I thought he'd come back. Actually I don't think he will. I just think it funny that you guys are so sure of yourselves. In sport the unlikely does indeed happen. I just said it was too early to completely write him off. Apparently the odds makers agree or the odds would be even higher.
07-10-09, 07:31 AM
#189
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Fabian Cancellara has better odds of reaching Paris with the Maillot Jaune than Menchov.
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07-10-09, 07:32 AM
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Ok, everybody has a chance. But it is extremely unlikely and trying to equate it coming back from 5 minute defecit on a non-contender from a break is what is wrong and ignorant.
07-10-09, 07:33 AM
#191
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No, I think you have poor reading comprehension. I've merely stated that it is my opinion that it is too early to write off Menchov entirely so early in the race being down only 5 minutes. Feel free to disagree.
07-10-09, 07:34 AM
#193
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@MitchellH Also note that Menchov's odds have gone from 12-1 at the start of the tour, to (at best) 150-1 now.
you really think the oddsmakers agree with you?
you really think the oddsmakers agree with you?
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07-10-09, 07:35 AM
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Right, a small chance, but a chance nonetheless. What were the odds that the Red Sox would win 4 in a row to beat the Yankees and go to the world series? I bet it was lower than that as it had never been done before.
I never said that I thought he'd come back. Actually I don't think he will. I just think it funny that you guys are so sure of yourselves. In sport the unlikely does indeed happen. I just said it was too early to completely write him off. Apparently the odds makers agree or the odds would be even higher.
I never said that I thought he'd come back. Actually I don't think he will. I just think it funny that you guys are so sure of yourselves. In sport the unlikely does indeed happen. I just said it was too early to completely write him off. Apparently the odds makers agree or the odds would be even higher.
when you're in a hole, you really should stop digging.
07-10-09, 07:44 AM
#196
Making a kilometer blurry
bibis?
07-10-09, 07:45 AM
#197
out walking the earth
I can't get enough of the Nike chalk bot.
More on Lance coming up....
Seriously, how do you people watch this stuff?
More on Lance coming up....
Seriously, how do you people watch this stuff?
07-10-09, 07:48 AM
#198
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online video muted
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