Watching bikes in classifieds
10-06-24 | 06:36 PM
#28
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 1,526
Likes: 1,190
From: Phoenix, AZ
Bikes: 1964(?) Frejus Tour de France, 1967(?) Dawes Double Blue, 1979 Trek 710, 1982 Claud Butler Dalesman, 1983 Schwinn Paramount Elite, 1984 Miyata 1000, 2014 Brompton, maybe a couple more
I decided to test my theory that people with excess expensive newer bikes are suffering more than us C&V types.
I looked at the 360 most recent Craigslist bike ads in Phoenix for two types of bikes:
1. Traditional diamond frame road bike listing for $200 or more
2. Non-traditional frame newer bike listing for $2000 or more
I counted 10 bikes in the first category, and that was interpreting the category broadly to include 4 ATB era early mountain bikes and 1 Cannondale aluminum. Only 3 classic steel road bikes over $1000.
I counted 28 bikes in the second category, plus lots listed just below $2000.
I would say the secondary market for expensive newer bikes seems way more flooded than the market for classic bikes. On the other hand, I recognized all three of the classics over $1000 because they've been listed for a long time, so no doubt the market is slow. I don't pay attention to the newer bike listings so I can't say how long they have been listed.
I looked at the 360 most recent Craigslist bike ads in Phoenix for two types of bikes:
1. Traditional diamond frame road bike listing for $200 or more
2. Non-traditional frame newer bike listing for $2000 or more
I counted 10 bikes in the first category, and that was interpreting the category broadly to include 4 ATB era early mountain bikes and 1 Cannondale aluminum. Only 3 classic steel road bikes over $1000.
I counted 28 bikes in the second category, plus lots listed just below $2000.
I would say the secondary market for expensive newer bikes seems way more flooded than the market for classic bikes. On the other hand, I recognized all three of the classics over $1000 because they've been listed for a long time, so no doubt the market is slow. I don't pay attention to the newer bike listings so I can't say how long they have been listed.
10-06-24 | 06:50 PM
#29
Senior Member
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,130
Likes: 248
From: Midwest
Bikes: See the signature....
Market's turned to crap.
My strategy going forward is simple: get what you can out of what you currently have and don't want anymore.
Be very strategic about what, if anything, you add to your collection (or what ever you call your horde).
Be prepared to throw stuff away. If it takes too much of my time versus the cost of the item, and hassle to pack and schlep it to the drop off for shipping, it gets listed for free-local pick up only, or tossed.
My time and peace of mind has become too valuable to me lately.
My strategy going forward is simple: get what you can out of what you currently have and don't want anymore.
Be very strategic about what, if anything, you add to your collection (or what ever you call your horde).
Be prepared to throw stuff away. If it takes too much of my time versus the cost of the item, and hassle to pack and schlep it to the drop off for shipping, it gets listed for free-local pick up only, or tossed.
My time and peace of mind has become too valuable to me lately.
__________________
My bikes: '81 Trek 957, '83 Trek 720, '84 Trek 770, '85 Centurion Cinelli
My bikes: '81 Trek 957, '83 Trek 720, '84 Trek 770, '85 Centurion Cinelli
10-06-24 | 08:39 PM
#30
Senior Member
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 961
Likes: 734
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Bikes: Bianchi Campione d'Italia, Lemond Poprad, Kona Hei Hei (converted to drop bars), Felt F1PR, Specialized Sequoia, various other projects
in the United States, there were upticks in prices of vintage bikes when Eroica CA started for the first few years, and then during COVID. Otherwise, it's been a fairly consistent trend down. If there's another big interruption in supply lines, sure, prices could go back up. But that's not the current trend.
10-06-24 | 08:59 PM
#31
Senior Member♣️
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 4,075
Likes: 3,004
I have sold five bikes in the last 12 months. I got really good deals on most of the bikes I own so , fortunately , I haven’t lost any money. What I gained was years of riding and enjoying the bikes while I owned them . I let them go cheap and 3 of them were very high end , original , good condition ( actually excellent ) bikes. It is getting harder to sell vintage road bikes , the last two were almost give away cheap. I think I am to the point of just selling the Campagnolo stuff and giving the frames away!
10-06-24 | 09:03 PM
#32
Senior Member
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 12,752
Likes: 4,866
I'm with Trakhak here. While I agree with you in the absolute sense, when compared against the demand, there's a semi-infinite supply of old bikes out there. I'm tall, and even in my sizes, it would be easy for me to find 3-5 vintage bikes I'd be very happy to own. Supply may be dwindling, but demand is decreasing faster.
in the United States, there were upticks in prices of vintage bikes when Eroica CA started for the first few years, and then during COVID. Otherwise, it's been a fairly consistent trend down. If there's another big interruption in supply lines, sure, prices could go back up. But that's not the current trend.
in the United States, there were upticks in prices of vintage bikes when Eroica CA started for the first few years, and then during COVID. Otherwise, it's been a fairly consistent trend down. If there's another big interruption in supply lines, sure, prices could go back up. But that's not the current trend.
The market is always changing. It might not ever re-value some bikes, but others will take on new followings. If something you like is cheap right now, I would buy it because it isn't going to be cheaper in the future.
But I would hope no one would consider flipping bikes an investment strategy.
10-06-24 | 10:01 PM
#33
I have sold five bikes in the last 12 months. I got really good deals on most of the bikes I own so , fortunately , I haven’t lost any money. What I gained was years of riding and enjoying the bikes while I owned them . I let them go cheap and 3 of them were very high end , original , good condition ( actually excellent ) bikes. It is getting harder to sell vintage road bikes , the last two were almost give away cheap. I think I am to the point of just selling the Campagnolo stuff and giving the frames away!
good for him to keep it as a bike.
today with the cost to ship, parts are much less money to send. Whole bikes are expensive. Frames and complete wheels can even cost much more than they once did.
10-07-24 | 08:12 AM
#34
Senior Member
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,948
Likes: 1,953
From: NorCal
I recently purchased the Serotta shown in this old advert.
https://www.pinkbike.com/buysell/3723718/
I'm guessing that the man who I bought it from was the buyer at that time. I paid substantially less than half of that previous price when it showed up on CL.
Over the last couple years I've sold off all of the pre-90s Campagnolo parts clogging the drawers for something more than $3K. And I felt REALLY good about it ! I still have a couple bikes that I want to move on to new homes but I'm sure that I'll have to be just way lucky to break even on them.
AFA the classifieds are concerned, delusional sellers abound. There are overpriced C&V bikes on the NorCal lists that have been up for over a year ! One has had the price reduced all of $30 since last December.
Good luck
https://www.pinkbike.com/buysell/3723718/
I'm guessing that the man who I bought it from was the buyer at that time. I paid substantially less than half of that previous price when it showed up on CL.
Over the last couple years I've sold off all of the pre-90s Campagnolo parts clogging the drawers for something more than $3K. And I felt REALLY good about it ! I still have a couple bikes that I want to move on to new homes but I'm sure that I'll have to be just way lucky to break even on them.
AFA the classifieds are concerned, delusional sellers abound. There are overpriced C&V bikes on the NorCal lists that have been up for over a year ! One has had the price reduced all of $30 since last December.
Good luck
10-07-24 | 01:09 PM
#36
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 5,368
Likes: 5,254
From: Central Virginia
Bikes: Numerous
I think part of the boom in vintage bikes 10 years or so ago was the rise in popularity of the Eroica rides, now fading apparently, coinciding with those of us of a certain age who had reached a point in life where we could afford the bikes we weren’t able to buy when we were young bucks. A lot of us have saturated our stables with those bikes and now it’s a case of being much more picky.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
__________________
N = '96 Colnago C40, '04 Wilier Alpe D'Huez, '10 Colnago EPS, '85 Merckx Pro, '89 Merckx Century, '86 Tommasini Professional, '04 Teschner Aero FX Pro, '05 Alan Carbon Cross, '86 De Rosa Professional, '95 Gios Compact Pro, '95 Carrera Zeus, ‘81 Masi Gran Criterium, ‘81 Merckx Pro, ‘89 Cinelli Supercorsa, ‘83 Bianchi Specialissima, ‘VO Randonneur, Ritchey Breakaway Steel, Rivendell Rambouillet, Heron Randonneur, ‘92 Ciöcc Columbus EL
N = '96 Colnago C40, '04 Wilier Alpe D'Huez, '10 Colnago EPS, '85 Merckx Pro, '89 Merckx Century, '86 Tommasini Professional, '04 Teschner Aero FX Pro, '05 Alan Carbon Cross, '86 De Rosa Professional, '95 Gios Compact Pro, '95 Carrera Zeus, ‘81 Masi Gran Criterium, ‘81 Merckx Pro, ‘89 Cinelli Supercorsa, ‘83 Bianchi Specialissima, ‘VO Randonneur, Ritchey Breakaway Steel, Rivendell Rambouillet, Heron Randonneur, ‘92 Ciöcc Columbus EL
10-07-24 | 01:17 PM
#37
señor miembro
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 3,524
Likes: 8,927
From: Pac NW
Bikes: '70s - '80s Campagnolo
10-07-24 | 01:56 PM
#38
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 18,822
Likes: 11,674
10-07-24 | 07:27 PM
#39
aka: Dr. Cannondale
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 8,683
Likes: 6,390
I think part of the boom in vintage bikes 10 years or so ago was the rise in popularity of the Eroica rides, now fading apparently, coinciding with those of us of a certain age who had reached a point in life where we could afford the bikes we weren’t able to buy when we were young bucks. A lot of us have saturated our stables with those bikes and now it’s a case of being much more picky.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
__________________
Hard at work in the Secret Underground Laboratory...
Hard at work in the Secret Underground Laboratory...
10-07-24 | 07:35 PM
#40
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 18,822
Likes: 11,674
Yep. Plus, citibike rentals hadn’t started yet, so anyone in an urban area who thought bikes were better than cars or public transpo were buying older (cheaper than brandy new) bikes and chaining them up outside their apartment building. Once rental bikes and scooters came along, that whole market disappeared. Don’t see so many chained up bikes these days…
10-07-24 | 09:47 PM
#41
saw a guy today making his way to the Cal state Long Beach campus on a fixed, no brakes. I had to do that 50 years ago, ride my track bike to work, hitch a ride to the velodrome on Thursdays. Considering the sprinter hills and descents, got away with much, lived to tell the tale.
10-08-24 | 08:26 AM
#42
Junior Member
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 96
Likes: 63
From: Colorado
Bikes: Surly Wednesday, early 1990s Gitane CX, Research Dynamics Coyote 3, 1989 GT Karakoram, 1990 GT Tequesta, 1993 Specialized Rockhopper Sport, 1999 Cannondale SuperV500, 1986 Cannondale SR400
The way I see it, C&V bikes appeal to three main groups: people looking for an inexpensive but effective bike, those with an antiquarian interest, or people who feel a sense of nostalgia for older bikes. The demand for older bikes has and will continue to shrink dramatically as the nostalgia buyers age out of riding, and people looking for inexpensive bikes simply have better options these days with the rampant discounting of new bikes. The rise of e-bikes has also cut into demand for pedal bikes generally. So unless the antiquarian hobbyist group grows (I'd put myself in this category) the demand and price for C&V bikes is not going to recover.
Also, I think everyone who wanted an older bike bought one in the Covid used bike boom. Going from that time when you could actually fix and flip a bike and make profit, it is a weak market now. I did sell some bikes I had minimal money invested in recently, right after the university move-in. I work in the college town so posted them as located there and got way more interest that I would have in my own town.
10-08-24 | 11:38 AM
#43
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 2024
Posts: 761
Likes: 1,022
From: Winnipeg Canada
Bikes: '84 Raleigh Vector Mixte, '83 Motobecane Super Sprint, '71 Glider (Raleigh)
I did see one very interesting fixed about a week ago with the single free-wheel on one side, and a "locked" hub on the other. Huge single chain ring- the largest I've seen in street use. He was riding it on the freewheel side and using the single rear brake.
Someone else mentioned the over-priced stuff not moving. I agree with that completely.
See a lot of stuff on f/b and other buy and sell sites that simply does not move at all- to the tune of years.
-D.S.
10-08-24 | 02:17 PM
#44
Newbie
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 36
Likes: 24
From: Northern California
Bikes: 1996 Quattro Assi, 2010 LOOK 566
I think part of the boom in vintage bikes 10 years or so ago was the rise in popularity of the Eroica rides, now fading apparently, coinciding with those of us of a certain age who had reached a point in life where we could afford the bikes we weren’t able to buy when we were young bucks. A lot of us have saturated our stables with those bikes and now it’s a case of being much more picky.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
The major factor I think though, is the market for rim brake bikes, old or new, is disappearing. People want bikes with disc brakes, they want bikes with fat tires.
10-08-24 | 02:42 PM
#45
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 5,368
Likes: 5,254
From: Central Virginia
Bikes: Numerous
saw a guy today making his way to the Cal state Long Beach campus on a fixed, no brakes. I had to do that 50 years ago, ride my track bike to work, hitch a ride to the velodrome on Thursdays. Considering the sprinter hills and descents, got away with much, lived to tell the tale.
__________________
N = '96 Colnago C40, '04 Wilier Alpe D'Huez, '10 Colnago EPS, '85 Merckx Pro, '89 Merckx Century, '86 Tommasini Professional, '04 Teschner Aero FX Pro, '05 Alan Carbon Cross, '86 De Rosa Professional, '95 Gios Compact Pro, '95 Carrera Zeus, ‘81 Masi Gran Criterium, ‘81 Merckx Pro, ‘89 Cinelli Supercorsa, ‘83 Bianchi Specialissima, ‘VO Randonneur, Ritchey Breakaway Steel, Rivendell Rambouillet, Heron Randonneur, ‘92 Ciöcc Columbus EL
N = '96 Colnago C40, '04 Wilier Alpe D'Huez, '10 Colnago EPS, '85 Merckx Pro, '89 Merckx Century, '86 Tommasini Professional, '04 Teschner Aero FX Pro, '05 Alan Carbon Cross, '86 De Rosa Professional, '95 Gios Compact Pro, '95 Carrera Zeus, ‘81 Masi Gran Criterium, ‘81 Merckx Pro, ‘89 Cinelli Supercorsa, ‘83 Bianchi Specialissima, ‘VO Randonneur, Ritchey Breakaway Steel, Rivendell Rambouillet, Heron Randonneur, ‘92 Ciöcc Columbus EL
10-08-24 | 02:51 PM
#46
Steel80's
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 684
Likes: 43
From: NJ
Bikes: Breezer Venturi, Schwinn Peloton, Marin Lucas Valley
The biggest trend I'm seeing, and this is probably driven by algorithms, is modern carbon rim-braked bikes going for cheap, like 1500 or less. Vintage steel racing bikes are increasingly rare. The more collectible stuff (or at least, they think) has higher asking prices. It makes sense to me, as others have noted, that the pre-brifter, nostalgia driven afficianados are aging out, and the next wave was mountain bikes. I don't personally have any appetite for early carbon or less than 10 speed antler bikes. My newest bike is now 11 years old, maybe I'll buy somebody's rim-brake, non di2 cast-off
10-08-24 | 03:05 PM
#47
The biggest trend I'm seeing, and this is probably driven by algorithms, is modern carbon rim-braked bikes going for cheap, like 1500 or less. Vintage steel racing bikes are increasingly rare. The more collectible stuff (or at least, they think) has higher asking prices. It makes sense to me, as others have noted, that the pre-brifter, nostalgia driven afficianados are aging out, and the next wave was mountain bikes. I don't personally have any appetite for early carbon or less than 10 speed antler bikes. My newest bike is now 11 years old, maybe I'll buy somebody's rim-brake, non di2 cast-off
that might be a value extender for cable operated bikes. Comprehendible. Possible to work on.
the overall demographics are a problem.
10-08-24 | 03:23 PM
#48
Senior Member
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,948
Likes: 1,953
From: NorCal
Depends on your life expectancy.
10-08-24 | 06:30 PM
#49
Junior Member
Joined: Jul 2023
Posts: 137
Likes: 28
Roughly 14 million 10-speed bikes were sold in the U.S. in 1974 alone. That was a peak year, so figure maybe 8 million per year from 1975 to 1990 or so. Probably half the total never saw more than 1,000 miles or so of use, which accounts for the seemingly endless supply of nearly pristine examples showing up on Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist in a steady stream.
Yes, the supply is finite. Yes, it's always decreasing. Where we differ is in predicting how the numbers will play out in the future.
My guess is that demand will diminish faster than supply, especially now that electric bikes (and scooters and skateboards and unicycles and the other variants) have begun to upend the market.
The number of such one-rider electric vehicles I now see around me in the streets of Baltimore is staggering. And, when I see older people riding around out in horse country in northern Baltimore County, at least 1 in 10 is in full Lycra while piloting an electric bike (or, increasingly, an electric recumbent).
Those older riders likely have one or two vintage bikes at home. But, unless they're on Bike Forums and being urged on by us enablers, they're unlikely to be in the market for another.
Setting aside all the bikes and related paraphernalia I have cluttering the house, I have electric guitars and basses and amplifiers and whatnot -- some vintage and still collectible, most not. I know from reading musicians' forums that, other than the rarest examples of such equipment, most of it is worth much less that it was at its peak.
The old stuff is still beloved, for those who grew up with it or aspired to own it. But for most others, the new stuff is simply better, in most ways that count.
Yes, the supply is finite. Yes, it's always decreasing. Where we differ is in predicting how the numbers will play out in the future.
My guess is that demand will diminish faster than supply, especially now that electric bikes (and scooters and skateboards and unicycles and the other variants) have begun to upend the market.
The number of such one-rider electric vehicles I now see around me in the streets of Baltimore is staggering. And, when I see older people riding around out in horse country in northern Baltimore County, at least 1 in 10 is in full Lycra while piloting an electric bike (or, increasingly, an electric recumbent).
Those older riders likely have one or two vintage bikes at home. But, unless they're on Bike Forums and being urged on by us enablers, they're unlikely to be in the market for another.
Setting aside all the bikes and related paraphernalia I have cluttering the house, I have electric guitars and basses and amplifiers and whatnot -- some vintage and still collectible, most not. I know from reading musicians' forums that, other than the rarest examples of such equipment, most of it is worth much less that it was at its peak.
The old stuff is still beloved, for those who grew up with it or aspired to own it. But for most others, the new stuff is simply better, in most ways that count.
Last edited by bfuser1029485; 10-08-24 at 06:35 PM.
10-08-24 | 07:38 PM
#50
Vintage Trek Black Hole
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,423
Likes: 1,386
From: Portland, Cascadia
Bikes: 1976 Merz' Tourer, 1984 Strawberry, 1978 Trek 910, 1982 Trek 950, 1982 Trek 720, 1981 Trek 510
Frustrating that I still can't find a bike that I have been looking for forever that I feel should be fairly common (but maybe not the size). I've had two pass through my hands that were the wrong size, and several "not quite right" pop up for bargain prices.
It will make it harder when I do find it and it isn't at a steep discount like everything else.
It will make it harder when I do find it and it isn't at a steep discount like everything else.