jgedwa

A bubble is happens when the bulk of the market shifts from buyers who want/need the product to investors who buy to re-sell at higher prices. And then prices can go well beyond what the market really wants them to go for.

There certainly are lots of flippers out there (myself included) who are in the second category of buyer. But still, nearly all people who buy from flippers are end-users. The day flippers are regularly selling to flippers is the day we have a genuine bubble.

On the other hand, with the economy softening, prices will probably reign in a bit. On the third hand, when gas prices go up again in a few months, prices will probably go up a bit more.

jim

cyclotoine

In europe old road bikes are not nearly as valuable because there are so many city bikes out there and cycling for transportation has always been the norm. In North America where cycling is a trend and there are very young and hip people extoling the virtues of cycling, fashion inevitably comes into play. I myself am a perfect example of someone who was originally attracted to the vintage bike for value but subsequently became enamoured with them because of the aesthetic (fashion). I think one the market becomes flooded with new and better answers to north american transportation needs the value of the mid to low end road bikes will certainly fall off. I think the high end ones will remain collectable and retain value though it should eventually stabilize (which it seems to have done in the last few years already).

banjo_mole 

Hmm... I realized, looking at my posts the other day, that few are as thoughtful as to reflect my actual personality. Poo.
Well, I worry, above all else. I realized while thinking the other day, that if I don't finish my current project soon, I won't. There is a very limited supply of old parts left for old bicycles, and the count is shrinking every day. That Simplex RD posted earlier that went for 1K+, how many NIB deraileurs are there like that, left? That could've very well been the last one, or one of the last three, etc.
How nice it'd be to open an old warehous and pop open a crate and find hundreds of old parts that never made it to the retailer from the manufacturer due to pirates or something, and refill the market with NIB campy parts, rare french parts, etc.

But unless that happens, the stuff is disappearing, going on bikes, and-
When the bikes we've restored fall back into the condition they were in when they were purchased, there's no way they'll be reborn YET AGAIN. They'll disappear into a museum or finally die in a scrap pile.

My point is this:
Someone get me a Campagnolo NR headset, english thread, NIB, before there are none.

Seriously though, the stuff is disappearing.