Someone once told me that if I flipped a coin, there'd be a 50% chance that I'd get heads. I flipped it and got tails. Obviously that guy didn't know what he was talking about.

Or you could just ride and not worry about it. Get a bike you don't care if it gets left outside in a rain storm.

I keep my bikes inside when I'm at home, but at work, they sometimes are left out on the rack. I don't really care if either is left out in the rain. Worse that happens is I get home and oil my chain.

I LOVE this post.

For around R-Town, I've found Accuweather.com is generally better than Weather.com. The local TV stations are usually better still, but they don't have the hour-by-hour stuff.

True story: I was once on a ride with Joe Lundberg of Accuweather.com, (he rides a Specialized Secteur). The skies were dark and everyone was milling around wondering whether to ride or not.

After taking the usual crap about his order for sunshine being back-ordered, Joe borrowed someone's phone, found weather radar, and said, "We've got about 90 minutes. Let's ride." We rode 45 minutes out, turned around, and rode 45 minutes back.

As we were putting the bikes on the cars, it started to rain.

Same here. In Boston we have a cable TV station called Weatherscan (Channel 245) which has a continuous Doppler display and periodic weather data repeated about every minute. This allows me to monitor the weather over my own route, and though the weather forecast might be for rain, my route may be clear.

In general I find that a prediction for dry weather is reliable and I’ll take my good road bike and leave the rain gear home, but it doesn’t take much threat of precipitation for me to take the beater bike though I may ride it on a dry day.

If you are on weather.com then LOOK AT THE INTERACTIVE PRECIPITATION MAP instead of the forecast, and you can do you own prediction. The Radar Map is absolutely dead on.

For weather.com I ONLY look at the map and the Hourly Forecast (Details tap). All others especially the Current, Tomorrow, and 5 day are junk.

I don't mind getting wet at all; I'd ride through a thunderstorm and enjoy it...I just don't like the idea of my bike sitting in the rain for the majority of the day

weather's weather.... I just don't do lightening (two rescue workers got zapped in Joplin, MO. I heard). otherwise meh... it's the roads calling my name. get out there and ride.

Me thinks you meant lightning.

Quick keys to success:

Never leave the house during the spring without rain-resistant/proof gear.

Remember that the percentages given by weather forecasters are just another way of saying "... for all X number of days in the past when conditions were similar, or nearly the same as today, it rained on Y amount of those days." Y/X is your percentage, which means damn near nothing.

Live by doppler radar images. Loop them multiple times if you have to, and calculate how fast the system is moving.

In Colorado, the saying is "If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes." I have learned to ride in rain when I least expect it. Over the years I have also learned that anything 30% and below means it likely won't happen, and 40% and over means it likely will. That 30%-40% is the weird part, and forecasters often settle in that grey area.

I noticed similar on the 30/40 rule:
30 = dry
40 = wet
50 = 50
60 = 50
80 and up = snow gear

And, I always tell folks, May is the coldest cycling month on the Front Range and January is the warmest. If you factor in your expectations.


Weatherman say, 'Past performance is no guarantee of future results ...'

How about the weather SUCKS.

Forecasters have had a track record for being not accurate for years,

I don't mind fun rides in bad weather Cuz I can head home if it gets too nasty But for my commute I like nicer more predictable conditions , I always carry rain gear.

here in upstate NY winter conditions went well into April, low 30s every morning frost and some snow ,ice/black ice still on many roads,

early May Morning temps were still in the mid 30s + wind and drizzle.

Mid may it rained almost every day temps in the high 30s in the early morning (commute take off time) plus lots of wind

Late may (now) Lots of wind grey skies cool morning temps and possible rain all week again though I haven't seen any yet

needless to say I haven't been riding much I'm usually commuting a few days a week (34 mile round trip) starting in Early April, and even a day or two in the winter during thaws, Not this year .

I'm only riding after work on the Fixie just to keep things working .

weather gods are angry!!

"John"

This year made me physically hate the month of April; it was one long joke in the form of weather; Just barely above freezing, windy, and rainy. It definitely sucks for us commuters, and it's even worse when trying to keep up mileage for summer races.

said 80% chance of perp throughout the hourly view on my weatherbug app. so i drove today, glad i did!

+1 for Weather Underground. Very useful info for the wet climate of Vancouver. 10%, 20% trace amounts mean very likely you will stay dry. The precipitation amounts help me decide if I'm riding or not. As opposed to the simplistic forecasts of Environment Canada, which are also not updated frequently enough.

Nice!

Pack the raingear and just ride. Use the weather sites for a rough idea of the week, and to verify what season it is.

I figured out where you lived while reading the post, before I even looked at your location. The forecasts out here have been awful lately.

Here, it's "If you don't like the weather, change the channel".