KraneXL

You're right. But they don't have a separate segment in the environment. Because they're still classified as bikes they get to use all the same facilities and encroach onto the already crowded biking thoroughfares. If you think there's an issue with roadies that using the MUPs now, just you wait.

livedarklions

I think the big problem with e-bikes using bike infrastructure isn't going to be speed, which is relatively easy to regulate, it's going to be the weight of the vehicles/load as the engines get more powerful. Some of the powered cargo bikes I'm seeing in Boston are approaching motorcycle bulk when they're laden with cargo. They're only going 20 mph, but getting hit by a 400-600 pound vehicle at that speed is way more likely to kill you than a 200 pound vehicle/rider combination going the same speed.

boggy

jefnvk

Or, you know, commuters who have to frequently move from location to location and/or who prefer to not be drenched in sweat in a professional office environment in July when pedaling through the hot city?

If cycling was how I commuted, I'd definitely consider an ebike. My commuting is not my recreation or fun time, it is a utilitarian need to get to my employment. How pure I am with regards to a sport when my need is to meet with a customer isn't really a primary concern.

livedarklions

No, sorry. Everything must be reduced to a morality play where pedaling is good, assist is bad.

Kapusta

Is this a joke?

Just because something is true in one country in Europe does not mean the same is true for "Europe". The two mean entirely different things.

Did I actually need to explain that?

jefnvk

Sorry, I forgot

Odd, I hear all the time how Europe is a cycling paradise, and inevitably it is in reference to something the Netherlands is doing.

But, my two bike tours in continental Europe tell me that ebike are definitely prevalent, to the point I would have to imagine that NEW sales have a sizeable market share, if not approaching parity. Toss in used, sure, ebikes are probably a much smaller percentage, but they simply haven't been around that long.

boggy

REDMASTA

For commuting hell yeah why not. Price, weight, and dork factor are all coming down with new models. I've considered the electron wheel to throw on my bike for use around town; especially in the summer so as not to arrive a sweaty mess and spend the first 15 minutes at my destination trying to cool down.

Kapusta

Bmach

radroad

This debate reminds me a bit of the hydraulic vs rim brakes debate. The traditionalists insist rim brakes are just as good as hydraulics and aren't necessary on road bikes; the tech enthusiasts claim hydraulics require less hand pressure and work better in the wet. Ultimately, the new tech takes over and the debate is settled on practical grounds.

I tend to believe that the e-bike vs standard bikes debate will be settled in much the same way: with e-bike sales overtaking standard bike sales at some point in the near future, likely within a decade.

The more important question is, how quickly will cities around the US re-organize or develop new infrastructure to adapt to this new reality of increasing adoption of electric vehicles. I think more bike lanes will be built and there will be greater regulation of e-bikes with additional legislation (probably not especially heavy handed). The US will never become Europe: the US will remain automobile-centric for the foreseeable future but e-bikes are here to stay.

CliffordK

There are differences between Europe and the USA.

When I was in Italy, the Piaggio Mopeds were immensely popular with the kids. And I don't remember them ever actually using the pedals.

There were several things that led to the popularity of the mopeds.

I think driving ages were:
14: Mopeds
16: Small Motorcycles and scooters.
18: Small Cars with restrictions.
21 or 24: Fewer restrictions.

Fuel prices were also extremely expensive in Italy.

Anyway, this all led to the kids from 14 to 18 riding mopeds.

I'd imagine that E-Bike sales are now booming over the moped sales, with the youth shifting from mopeds to E-Bikes.

There is also a possibility that in some cases, the kids are keeping the E-Bikes as they get older rather than upgrading to more powerful motorcycles and cars.

When you look at the cost of a NEW E-Bike, they are likely competitive with the cost of new mopeds, scooters, or small motorcycles. And total cost of ownership of an E-Bike is much much cheaper than a car.

An E-Bike + Car could potentially even save money over just a car.

Flip Flop Rider

will e-bikes take the place of bikes, no

will e-bikes become an increased form of transportation , yes

CliffordK

One of the things alluded to in the GCN commentary is that cyclists are not a homogeneous group.

Probably one of the largest group of bike sales are the young kid's bikes, say for kids from about 3 to 14 years old, and not necessarily in the market for either E-Bikes or Road Bikes (although there seems to be a new niche for electric toy vehicles when pedal cars were once popular).

For the older people, one could probably stratify the market:
It is likely that you'll see the E-Bikes scooping up a few of those midrange commuters. Maybe a few of the roadie commuters and long distance commuters, as well as some of the not quite so hardcore MTB riders (as long as MTB trails remain accessible to E-Bikes).

Utility Cycling will get hit heavily by E-Bikes.

Other groups may shy away from the E-Bikes, although there may be sub-groups, such as certain elderly recreational riders, or perhaps riders with strength discrepancy between cyclist and riding partners that may favor e-bikes.

In the end, the hardcore roadies are a minority of the cyclists on the road, and don't make the trends.

dabac

livedarklions

The analogy is flawed--ebikes are superior to std bikes for certain uses, but far inferior as a "fitness machine" for an otherwise healthy person. Some bicycle commuters will make the shift, but I suspect more of the adopters of ebikes will be people who otherwise wouldn't be biking.

It's quite possible that ebike sales may overtake std bike sales without std bike sales declining noticeably. It might just be fewer people driving, riding public transit or even walking.

radroad

I think the analogy holds up reasonably well. Hydraulics in particular and discs in general, have some disadvantages: they weigh more, are not compatible with frames designed for rim brake compatibility and generally require frame and wheel redesign. There are costs and benefits with both approaches, but clearly, most new 'performance' models in all niches: road, gravel, e-bike and offload, all spec discs.

Even the lowest cost ebikes I've listed in this thread spec discs. Discs are the new industry standard.

Likewise, there are 'weaknesses' with e-bikes. They are far heavier. They are more expensive at the "low end." They introduce the possibility of electrical problems or even failure. There are penalties associated with electric bike use compared with standard bicycles. However, sales are growing whereas standard bike sales are flat and have been for a couple of decades. It's not terribly difficult to see what will happen if these present trends continue. E-bikes will supplant the standard bicycle.

I'm not convinced standard bike are superior fitness machines as you call them. Hill climbing can be punishing on the knees and this is where ebikes can alleviate any potential pain. The vast majority of e-bikes are equipped with suspension, allowing a rider to pedal farther with less discomfort/more joint protection. The weight penalty for ebikes is a non-factor because of the motor and battery, whereas most enthusiast standard bicycle riders want to save weight and improve efficiency meaning suspension adoption for road use is limited.

I have no definitive prediction obviously, but I could see e-bikes supplanting standard bikes as the new standard. I won't say it's inevitable, but it is possible With Tesla and GM jumping on board, this could be a huge shift.

Ogsarg

The question of what will sell more is unimportant to me. A better question might be how many electric bikes will be sold instead of regular bikes.

Not so much here in the states but in other countries, many people cannot afford a car or even a motorcycle and use a bike by necessity. I can see those people buying an e-bike over a standard bike but for people who cycle for sport or fitness I don't see many of them switching.

I certainly don't see it as a threat to the bicycle industry at large. Companies that specialize in commuter/transportation bikes will probably develop their own e-bikes and others will see minimal impact.

badger1

No, it doesn't. The analogy is completely useless. The rim brakes v. hydraulic brakes 'controversy' -- silly -- is within a context set by human-powered machines, i.e. bicycles. That debate has to do with braking; that debate had/has nothing whatsoever to do with motive power.

E-bikes, whatever spin/special pleading various posters on here (Bike Forums) want to put on them, are not human-powered machines. They are motorized vehicles. In other words, apples and bl__dy oranges.

I have no view one way or the other on "e-bikes" as such. I do not care if someone wishes to ride an "e-bike". Good on them. But doing so is not cycling. Full stop. To pretend otherwise is stupid.

I do have views on "e-bikes" when it comes to where they can be/should be ridden. They are motorized vehicles. They have no place on a MUP that prohibits the use of motorized vehicles, and their use thereon should be strictly banned outright. They have no place -- and should be strictly banned outright -- on mtb trails that prohibit the use of motorized vehicles. They have no place in/on bicycle lanes within cities, and their use thereon should be strictly banned outright.

I do not give a d__n if someone rides an e-bike on the road, in traffic. Good on 'em. I do not give a d__n if someone rides an e-bike, i.e. e-mtb, on trails open to dirt bikes and four-wheelers etc., good on 'em. And so on.

I can see the appeal. Who knows? I am old; maybe someday I will want, or will resort to, an e-bike. But if and when I do so, I will not be trying to fool myself into thinking that my riding one has anything whatsoever to do with cycling. It does not.

And so, the question whether or not "e-bike" sales will exceed the sales of bicycles at some point is of no interest from the point of view of a cyclist, any more than whether or not the sales of motorcycles, or cars, or pick-up trucks, do or will exceed the sales of bicycles. They probably will, given the propensity of us (humans) to look for ways not to exert ourselves in any fashion whatsoever.

mackgoo

I guess it depends on how many out of shape people want to ride a bike.

Gresp15C

I don't think we have a crystal ball that tells us what will happen with e-bikes. They could supplant conventional bikes. They could increase overall interest in cycling, leaving conventional bikes alone. Or in in 5-10 years we might see a growing number of e-bikes gathering dust in garages, like conventional bikes. We don't know how e-vehicles will evolve, and if the e-bike will diverge from its origins as an electric assist pedal bike. There may be more practical options for some people. For instance, an urban commuter can ride an e-scooter and keep it in their office.

Some issues with cycling won't go away: Weather, security, safety, maintenance.

Some uses for conventional bikes won't go away. I live in a university town. There are scads of bikes on campus, most of them are parked outdoors, and many are used year-round. Most students don't have convenient indoor parking for their bikes. Same for people who work minimum wage jobs downtown, such as food service. Not everybody has a place to charge a bike, especially when it gets below the recommended minimum temperature for charging and using Li-ion batteries. My garage gets below that temperature.

Granted, we may be a minority, but we won't vanish completely. And there will always be plenty of second-hand bikes for us to choose from.

radroad

You did not understand my point, probably deliberately so. I stated that the rim vs discs debate has it's pros and cons on both sides from an intellectual perspective, but ultimately sales determine their place in the market. The same will happen with electric vs standard bikes. Electric bike sales are clearly on the increase, sharply so, and there is little doubt that this trend will increase for the foreseeable future. OTOH, standard bike sales have been flat for approximately 3 decades, despite countless 'innovations' or what some would call arbitrary changes, or both.

If these trends continue, there is little question that electric bikes will displace standard bicycles in the marketplace as sales leaders. At least in first world countries. The point is, this is not an academic debate. It will be settled in the marketplace and there are no signs that standard bicycles will increase in sales at any point in the near or distant future.

One factor among several which have and will boost ebike sales is that this segment caters unabashedly to older adults: upright stems, riser bars, suspension saddles, seat posts, forks, stems, fat tires, step thru frames, and of course motors and batteries. They make no pretense that they are replicas of professional racing bikes; ebike races are few and far between after all, bordering on non-existent. As a result, ebikes will surely capture a lion's share of the largely untapped market of elderly people who want to and are willing to exercise but can't ride road racing bikes designed for 25 year olds with a body mass index of 19.

To address one of your other points, yes, ebikes are in fact bicycles. You pedal them, and the harder you pedal, the faster they go. A bicycle by definition is a vehicle with two wheels propelled with pedals. Every ebike fits that definition although some have throttles as an option.

Not to mention, swearing and insulting others is a sign that you cannot debate on the basis of evidence or logic. Please refrain and stick to facts.

Gresp15C

The pretense of replicating road racing bikes ended 30 years ago with widespread consumer adoption of mountain bikes, a trend which has continued in the market with hybrid, "commuter," and "comfort" bikes.

The difference between a comfort bike, and a comfort bike with a motor, is the motor.

bogydave