Dahon.Steve

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/worlds-w...174836719.html

This is a very scary video from China.

In their quest to motorize the population, they are creating a monster of their transportation system. The news reported that China could soon have as many drivers as the US at 212 million. Sales of new vehicles topped 20 million this year alone.

I believe you are looking at is the future of motorized transport in the world in 50 years or less.

For those of us who are carfree but bus dependant, the future does not look good either as we will be stuck in the same gridlock. I actually spend 20 minutes a day in gridlock on my express bus but since I’m not driving (and sleeping) it’s not so bad. However, I can see spending 40 or even 60 minutes a day in a gridlock commute. I hope to be retired by then!

Only commuter rail and subways are the solution for millions across the globe. We better start building them and fast because it takes years to construct and billions of dollars. Since this probably won’t happen, we can expect to ride packed rail cars as the masses board trains by the millions to avoid surface transport.

I believe the next generation will have to think about career selection and job location when determining their choice of college major. Those who can have a good paying career without the hassle of a gridlock commute will have a far greater quality of life.

Walking to work was the norm 200 years ago and will be the envy of millions 200 years from today.

Roody

In order for China to catch up with the US on a per capita basis, they would need to have more than a billion cars. Obviously this is impossible, especially given the slowdown in the Chinese economy. I think we Americans should get our own house in order before we start tsk-tsking other countries.

tandempower

Mixed-use zoning reduces longer commuting pressures but the problem is that people don't often want to relocate to live next to work or change jobs to work near where they want to live. Telecommuting can solve this problem, though, if people can do most of their work at home and only commute to an office or meeting once every few days or weeks. Another solution is for people to divide their time between performing local services and more skilled professional work. A lot of commuting occurs because more affluent areas aren't affordable for service personnel to live and so people commute across town to perform service work in these areas while the residents commute elsewhere for professional jobs that take all their time. If those people did part-time service jobs within biking distance of their homes and only commuted to professional jobs a few times a month, that would reduce a lot of traffic.

Economic cycles are going to play a big role in the coming evolution of traffic congestion patterns, I expect. What will happen is that periods of traffic reform will occur where car free living grows and roads become more manageable for a while. Then, automotive businesses will see an opportunity to market driving to a broader customer base because the roads are getting better. Marketing campaigns will thus stimulate more driving once again, until interest in transportation reform returns to solve the problems of increasing congestion anew.

It will be cyclical growth and shrinkage in motor traffic and congestion, along with technological advances and reforms in transportation behavior, that keeps society oscillating between growing motor-congestion and growing transportation reform. . . at least until people get tired of returning to congestion periodically and commit to more permanent reforms that keep motor-traffic at bey.

Walter S

The slower the cars go, the more attractive the bicycle gets. On my bicycle I can still hold a pretty good speed most of the time when the traffic is dense.

Dahon.Steve

I see this picture every day but a miniture version as my bus crawls into the Holland Tunnel. We are headed in this direction and I don't believe we can get our house in order.

kickstart

On what planet would this take place?

Doctors collecting garbage.
Lawyers doing landscaping.
Engineers pumping gas.
Educators cashiering groceries.

And the garbage collectors, landscapers, gas station attendants, and cashiers all go on unemployment, or do they get to play doctor, lawyer, engineer, and educator part time in their areas?

Bandera

Try spending some time in a Chinese city getting about sometime, it is quite an experience.
Being "scared" of other cultures' everyday experiences via u-tube video is a peculiarly 1st world experience: high density foreign voyeurism.

"Oh my God look at the teeming multitudes!"
"Actually they are Stopped, but still attempting to teem!"
"Wow, that's one big-arse teeming multitude, how do they ever turn left?"
"They need to teem a whole lot less for The Sake of the Planet!"
"I know, they can all Walk!"

Pontificating about "In their quest to motorize the population, they are creating a monster of their transportation system" is smug twaddle.
I can't speak for the People's Republic of China's transportation planning authority but my guess having been there is that their "Quest" is a bit different than what you perceive at your laptop screen with many more forms of "motors" than 2-stroke pedi-cabs in the works long term.

BTW: I assume that you will be "walking to work" on Monday, good for you and the health of lovely NJ.

-Bandera

Machka 

This isn't the first time he has mentioned this idea.


Personally, I want my doctor focused on doctor-related work. If she wants to pick up some weekend work doing, say, landscaping because she enjoys getting out into the fresh air and gardening, that's great ... but I'd prefer to have her available and present in the office 4 or 5 days a week, and not thinking about having to dash out to her other job. But maybe that's just me.

Bandera

This planet has no reference for tp, it's all vacuous unrealistic theory with no grounding in reality.

Something slightly along these was attempted in of all places China in the 1960's.
It was The Great Leap Forward combined with the Cultural Revolution and the "Re-education of the Elite".

Both were canceled as dismal deadly failures and the Chinese picked themselves up from didactic useless dogma and got on with acting in the real world.
They used lots of bicycles too, for a while.



-Bandera

tandempower

Earth, at least until we can build viable colonies elsewhere.
It just depends on how their time can be organized. I think many such professionals would actually enjoy decompressing by taking on some less mentally-demanding work responsibilities like these.

There could also be some innovation in terms of people coming into a more affluent area for a shorter work schedule by bike and planning meetings with attorneys, doctor visits, etc. so that the doctor could work from home or close to home. This could be done by giving people mixed schedules where they work, say, one or two days a week in a remote area and work other days close to home. E.g. If a doctor is collecting garbage one or two days a week in his/her home neighborhood and taking patients the other two/three days, then workers taking on garbage-collecting duties on the doctor's patient days could also schedule their doctor visit while working on that side of town.

Ideally, everyone could take on more responsibility in preventive care and health counseling that would at least reduce the need for doctor visits. Social workers, for example, can act as a liaison between health care professionals and patients/clients so they don't have to travel across town for health care as much. I think this is already how car free living works in cities like Amsterdam and Copenhagen. If people who can bike are hired as social workers for those who can't bike, a lot of motor-traffic can be taken off the roads, or at least limited to more local trips. E.g. why couldn't home-care nurses (or medical assistants) do housecalls by bike to collect biological samples and deliver these to doctor's offices and labs by bike, saving patients a trip to deposit their own samples?

The problem is that once social work jobs begin multiplying, it opens up a pandora's box of people clamoring for more such jobs purely for the sake of redistributing money.

Bandera

Perfect!
I rest my case.

PS: Wasn't aware that this BF sub-forum is now Living Terra Free.

-Bandera

Machka 

No thanks.

tandempower

What case? All you really do is make provocative comments without engaging in reasoned discussion.

Do you realize how disrespectful it is to respond to a post with so much content just by saying, "no thanks" without putting any effort into actually saying anything about the content? Sometimes you seem like a kind and respectful person to me and other times you seem very rude and dismissive. If you don't want to engage in any substantive discussion about something I post, why not just keep your negativity to yourself?

kickstart

Its simply ludicrous.

Machka 

I'm not being rude or negative.

I'm positively telling you "Thank you for your contribution, but no thanks. I am not even remotely interested in a world as you have described it." I might also mention how greatly relieved I am that you are not in a position of power. Definitely something to be thankful for!

Bandera

This Case:

There is no engaging in "reasoned discussion" about Fantasy.

-Bandera

tandempower

First, you could have consolidated these into a single post.

Second, thank you for your honesty and neutrality of tone in expressing your opinion.

Third, the only way I can make sense of your stance is that you must have some holistic image of society whose image my suggestions conflict with in an aesthetic way. I imagine you think that people just have to work in the same location every day or they have to do the same job every day of the week, etc. Why is it so horrible to imagine combining different jobs at different locations on different days of the week? What is so terrible about having a diverse work schedule? (I could have said "varied" instead of 'diverse' but you've praised diversity in other threads so maybe you can reflect on the goodness of having diversity in your work routines as well).

Have you dealt with congested motor traffic? Do you not think it is worth making some superficially radical changes to people's routines for the sake of freeing up lanes for smoother traffic flows for those who drive while making it easier for others to choose car-free transportation to go along with a work routine that makes it more doable?

What part of my post offended you most? The people carrying collected biological samples and transporting them to labs by bike? Granted, any innovation where the collecting and transport of biological samples is concerned can be particularly unsettling, but ultimately what's the big deal for someone who works with such samples anyway to carry them around in a cooler mounted on the luggage rack of a bike?

Machka 

How?

Although kickstart and I have similar ideas and opinions, I'm not kickstart.

tandempower

1) you are claiming that my giving considerations to the future possibility of human colonies beyond Earth has some bearing on the reasonability of other things I say. Even if I believed that the moon was made of green cheese and inhabited by renegade Martians, it wouldn't have any bearing on my ability to add 2+2=4. You're thinking is saturated with ad hom logic. It makes for really bad, hostile discussion.

2) Have you ever heard of ISS? Space X? NASA? Do you understand that we are working on technologies to be able to facilitate human life outside the atmosphere for extended periods? Do you think that's all fantasy? What exactly are your criteria for distinguishing between fantasy and reality?

tandempower

Oh, my apologies. I was careless scanning over the posts. Simply ludicrous of me!

Machka 

Very simply ...

1) Your idea is not offensive. It's just not desirable. At all.

2) I prefer the system we've got now where people acquire education, training, skills, and experience in a particular field or fields of their choice ... and then work in those fields, or related fields as desired. Freedom to make individual choices.

If someone wants to be a doctor and acquires the education to become a doctor, that person should be free to be a doctor without being required to spend 2 days a week collecting rubbish.

If a person prefers to collect rubbish ... that person acquires those skills and is free to get a job in that area without being forced to be a doctor 2 days week.

Dave Cutter

Oh come on. This is apples-to-oranges when comparing China to America. In China the government is busy constructing new cities, While in America we have already begun the long process of deconstructing cities. You won't see many pictures of congested traffic around Detroit or Baltimore will you?!?!? In 50 years ALL American cities could be under deconstruction as well.

Bandera

I know NASA folk here in TX, they have been in my home and we have fed them in my kitchen.
There is Zero Fantasy in what they are up to, but they do provide interesting and realistic conversations on what's up next in terms of space exploration.
NASA has brought my profession of Project Management to it's most complex and sublime expression of real accomplishment.

None of your soft silly fantasies would cut it for a moment in my kitchen, or anywhere else where competent folk work on real projects.

-Bandera

kickstart

And what about all the displaced people who once were employed doing those service jobs?


TPs retirement plan for the working person?


Soylent Green?

wphamilton

The allure of decompressing with less-demanding work wears off quickly when your time brings in a tenth as much.