You've been hitting the Kool-Aid a little too hard. The LHT is a nice bike but nothing speacial.

Yeah, many of us were dispassionate about Japanese bikes in the 80's. Not a lot of change was going on, and there were far more names than makers. It was clear that they were making more names to increase market share. But in retrospect, maybe they were not original, but they were damned good bikes.

As far as I know, Taiwan is where the best mass produced bikes and bike parts come from now. They used to make crap, but it's darned good. Some of the Chinese stuff is good, and some is not. So yes, we might look back at this stuff nostalgically. I suspect we will. I don't know where stuff will be made in the future. Chinese labor rates are on the way up. Laos? The Philippines? Maybe some African country.

Since 2010 is the last year Cannondale's CAAD road bike is going to be made in the US, there is potential there.

I'm still hanging on to my Hassleblad system .. a 500CM body and an ELM .. Haven't shot with them in years but I can't bear to part with them. Can a camera be a wall hanger?

Scott

I don't know, if enough people hit the kool aid about it, it might end up regarded as special. I would have said the same thing about Bridgestone RB-1s and MB-1s 20 years ago...but enough people bought into them where they're worth a lot more than what I'd consider superior bikes (Centurion Equipes, Miyata Teams, high end Lotus). For that matter, I didn't think much of the Miyata 1000 I rode as has been discussed ad nausem else where).

I don't think there's anything special about Cannondales (at least nothing a good pair of gloves won't help with) but you can see others disagree. Perception is reality.

I've never ridden a Cannondale racing bike, but the sport-touring bikes I've tried seemed extremely responsive to me. They were definitely not blind tests. I'm sure the fat tubes and the hype influenced me. I did NOT notice bone-jarring vibrations, though, and it felt as if I'd like the bike quite a bit.

I have...and the harsh ride wasn't a myth.

Not in this house, unless they just don't function well anymore (like my 50s-vintage Agfa Silette--nearly worthless except as a memento of my dad).

+1. Rode a buddies R300 CAD2 once and had to check the fillings in my teeth afterwords to make sure they were still there.

As an owner I am biased but I do think Litespeeds and Lynskeys will be collectible and some of their bikes will be classics. Without implying any sort of xenophobia there will always be collectors of American marques. The Paramount collectors of today will beget the Litespeed collectors of the future.

I've been around long enough to where I still feel that a "thin" tube lugged frame looks "right" but my TiG welded 853 LeMond and my Ti Litespeed with brifters that have worked for thousands of miles, sitting on wheels that re seriously light but also bulletproof are hard to beat.

Really the only drawback to modern stuff in regards to function is that 10 speed chains don't last very long.

You have to go quite a while back to find when Taiwanese mass-produced bikes were crap. In the early '80's Schwinn pissed off Giant, who started importing their own bikes directly. Giant was making good bikes for Schwinn, and quickly made a name for themselves with their bang for the buck.

I dunno if that's ever going to happen for Chinese made bikes.

I do believe that in 20 years, some of the bikes being made and sold today will be classics and collectibles. Not all, but then not all bikes from 20+ years ago are collectible now.

As some have mentioned, 20 years from now, I believe bicycle enthusiasts will be mostly interested in collecting those bicycles handcrafted by small shops and artisans that have popped up all over the country. Those bicycles are unique in their designs, details and manufacturing techniques. Those aspects will drive up their demand in 20 years or sooner. From big manufacturers (Trek, Specialized, Cannondale), you can rest assured that only their very high-end models (those bikes normally seen in the Tour de France costing now $7K or above) will be also highly sought-after in 20 years. Obviously, your classic bicycle now will also be more collectible in 20 years (so hold on to them, if you can!)

I also have the strong sense that there is an interesting category of bicycles that will continue to increase in demand, although most of them are hardly viewed as "collectible or classic" right now but seem to be crossing that threshold. I'm talking about the "MIXTE" bicycle from the 70s and 80s. I believe the increasing demand will be driven not only by women (at whom the frame was originally targeted), but also by all the males discovering the beautiful clean lines, simplicity and functionality of this unique French-designed frame. They will become more scarce as many more are salvaged and beautifully remodeled. They make great commuters or attractive city bikes, a segment of the industry poised to experience tremendous growth. As we all know, cities all over America are remodeling and adapting their insfrascture to support the use of bicycles. Now, whether the harder-to-fix French mixtes (Peugeot or Motobecane) will be more collectible than their practical easy-to-maintain Japanese or Taiwanese counterparts (Nishiki, Centurion, Univega) remains to be seen. As of now, there doesn’t seem to be a significant price differential. Now if you have a rare 531 or Columbus steel mixte... well, you know how you should treat it.

Guess I'll finally weigh in on this thread, having been involved to one extent or another into vintage cars, motorcycles, cameras, and firearms. And there's a couple general rules out there:

1. Everything becomes vintage. All it has to do is survive 25+ years, and it's made it. By 30 years, another generation is looking at it as an antique. And then its down to reliving one's youth vs. antique collecting, depending on the age of who's doing the buying.

2. With a few deliberate collectible exceptions (Ferrari's, engraved presentation pistols, certain limited production Ducati's, etc.) nobody in the present has a clue whether a certain object is going to become collectible. Real collectibility (every antique object has some degree of collectibility, even Varsity's) is a combination of too many factors to mention . . . . . . . . and the biggest one is usually luck.

I feel pretty confident in saying that none of the regulars in this forum (including myself) have the slightest clue what 2010 bike is going to be the equivalent of an RB-1 in 2050 - mainly because we don't follow what's going on in the modern bicycle market (and most comments we make about modern bikes are disparaging) unless it's some odd juncture into a lugged steel frame being made by an outfit that normally does unlugged aluminum or carbon fiber. And even if we did, we don't have the advantage of seeing forty years ahead and understanding why it got the reputation it's going to get.

Prime example: I have (as many here have been pounded with over the years) an excellent memory of the bicycle business 1970-1975. And in retrospect, I can easily understand why a first generation Fuji Finest, or a cottered crank Raleigh Super Course are highly thought of today. That's today. That's with the hindsight of 40 years. Back in 1973, looking at that first blue Finest uncrated and set up on the showroom floor of John DeAngelo's bicycle shop in Erie, I could see that the bike that somewhat special . . . . . but if somebody had told me that people would be collecting and revering them 40 years later, I'd have wondered if he'd spent last night doing the laced acid that I wisely passed on.

And even at that point in time, being heavily involved in the AACA and showing an antique Buick, I certainly understood the concept of antique desirability. And was trying to handicap a few current cars at the time.

We won't have a clue as to what is, and I most likely, given my age, won't see what's the hot antique bicycle in 2040 or 2050.

But then, I can remember my father's carburetor specialist at his Chevy dealership back in the 1950's, the guy who, in the late 60's got me hooked on antique car shows. This guy had this odd pre-war car that, when he bought it for $25.00 back in 1947, it was nothing more than some odd looking old car that had gone out of business, and you had a hard time getting parts for, so why bother? Unless you were a bit odd, like him and a few other people.

Oh yeah, the car was a 1936 Cord 810 Sportsman. And he helped found the Auburn/Cord/Duesenberg club. Later, as he was getting old and couldn't drive anymore (mid-1980's) he gave dad and me first shot at buying it. $100,000.

Anyone out there think they can accurately guess what 2010 model bicycle out there gathering dust in a bicycle shop is the equivalent of that Cord? If you're absolutely certain you know, I suggest you go out and buy two or three of them, keep them in the box, and store them away. Your grandchildren will revere your memory.

Oh yeah, the reason I'd really like to be around 40 years from now? To see that these modern carbon fiber wonders held up a lot better than most of the disparaging comments have predicted. I don't doubt that they will.

sykerocker, I enjoyed your analysis and agree with it for the most part. But I'm a little dubious htat today's carbon frames are going to be ridden extensively 30-40 years from now, including by impoverished college students, like yesterday's steel frames are today.

No.

Funny that you mention Cervelos. I snuck into the slipstream of a group ride filled with Cervelos and Specialized CF machines. I yelled, "Carbon fiber is for whimps" and took the charge, then exclaimed that clinchers are for lazy whimps....and then I bombed out. I don't have the leg strength to keep up to those gore wearing, CF framed, ultra-light wheel set buggers.

If you are wondering, that is my main goal. I am crit'ing it up on my tubular, steel bianchi wearing my yellow Campagnolo cycling hat....hopefully I can beat some Al, Ti and CF machines .

I bought a Ti frame because I won't care about it nearly as much as I like my Dad's Gitane or the Bianchi I was given. My LBS mechanics absolutely adores seeing me bring my Bianchi in even for just cable ends to be crimped; it is literally what others have said before. Folks see the bikes that they've dreamed of and it makes them extremely happy.

I love everything from the 70s. Even the cars...yeah the slow ones but I prefer a 73 trans-am Super duty . My Dad's Bose 901 Series IV and Bose spatial control receiver, his Gitane tour de france.... you know what, I grew up with that stuff...so I suppose that is part of it too.

I'm not so much thinking about will impoverished college students be riding old Trek Madone's, as I'm thinking about the claims I've read over the past few years from die-hard steel aficionados that, say, 2002 carbon fiber bikes won't last until 2020. Period. I have a feeling they're going to be proven very wrong.

Besides, let's put it into a relevant form: How many impoverished college students are riding 1980 Colnago's to class this year? 1980 low-end Schwinn's, yes. Colnago's, no. Those bikes are still too pricey for the average impoverished college student (which, by the way, is a concept I don't believe in - any college student who can afford bheer and pizza on a Friday night is not impoverished - and I've never seen one who can't).

Assuming that college students in 2040 are riding bicycles (a leap of faith to begin with - we're assuming college society thirty years from now is nothing more than a stylistically different 2010 college society, and basing that totally on the difference between 1980 campus life and 2010), they're probably going to be riding reclaimed steel hybrids, or, aluminum road bikes with carbon forks. Which are the current equivalents of 1970 Schwinn Suburbans and Varsities.

The Trek Madones, Orbea Orcas, Pinarello Princes, etc., will probably be treated like we treat the Raleigh Professionals and Gitane Professional Super Corsa today. As high end, expensive bikes that the enthusiasts couldn't afford when they were new. With a certain amount of reverence.

One of our weaknesses in discussing this is that we're fixated on quality road bikes, aka, racing bikes, touring bikes, etc. The despised (by being ignored) hybrid is going to be a lot more important as a reclaimed used bike in the future.

Even today, a 1973 Raleigh Professional makes a lousy urban commuter. It can't take the day to day strain. You think a Trek Madone is going to be any better?

Lower you thinking way down on the manufacturer's catalog when you're talking a junkyard bike to reclaim as an urban commuter.

i think certain bikes with a cult following will end up like semi classic cars from the 80's and 90's. Mazda Miatas, first generation BMW M3s, the 1990-1996 300zx, even the Honda CRX. regardless of how many were or weren't made or how low their prices got a few years on people just love these cars and they stay desirable. i can see any of the USA made CAAD frames, the Surly bikes, some of the new Bianchis, Cervelos etc having that kind of staying power.

The problem with these is that there simply aren't enough of a given run to reach critical mass, and, as often as not, no reason why you couldn't assemble an identical product out of off-the-shelf parts. While these frames will no doubt remain desirable, they will never appreciate in value - there simply aren't enough of them out there for the nameplate to become desirable.

Quite a lot of rather nice carbon fiber stuff is fabricated in China right now.


Taiwan is, from what I've heard, a lot like China with the insane communist aspects turned down several places. They make a lot of good stuff.

I suspect China's abusive labor policies will keep them in the lead for quite some time. If nothing else, it's the only place on earth where a corrupt autocratic government supports international business.

Materials science says otherwise. A single minor crash - one from which the rider is able to walk away - is enough to damage the weave of a carbon fiber bicycle to the point where it's no longer safe to ride. Furthermore, the resins used will slowly break down over time due to UV exposure and other factors. Carbon fiber is, to put it simply, rather fragile stuff. Unlike a Schwinn Paramount - which, if unridden, will remain factory-fresh for decades - a carbon frame will eventually lose structural integrity sooner or later. While a few immaculately preserved examples will no doubt remain, there won't be an awful lot of them.

Bose is, was, and will always be rubbish. Go buy some proper 70s speakers - goodness knows that between the endless JBLs, KLHs, ARs, and endless others, you're guaranteed to find something much, much better.

But usually doesn't. The same could be said for lightweight steel. These things are hard to predict. I've seen a lot of carbon bikes crash and remain rideable.

How long does this process take? How severe is it? Is it likely that a CF bicycle will be structurally unsound to the point of being unrideable in 20 years? How do you know? Again, this happens with the old steel stuff, too - if it's been ridden lots, and exposed to the environment, than you have rust, fatigue and damage to content with. CF is not marzipan. The UV loss argument is kind of like the aluminum fatigue cycle argument - true in the basic sense of the statement, but with little or no relevance to reality (i.e. Al frames designed for more than enough fatigue cycles, steel bicycle frames almost certainly ARE subject to fatigue, etc).

The problem is that our imaginations are limited by our prejudices. A lot of people in this thread are saying, essentially, that current bicycles will not be classics, because they don't, personally, find them appealing (though there's a lot of rationalizations flying around to justify this). That's not a terribly sound basis for forecasting. I think skyerocker is right on, with essentially everything he's said. No need to reiterate - just read his posts again.

One more thing: remember that the really high-end racing bikes of the 70's and 80's are highly sought-after. Most of the vintage bikes being ridden around by college students are low to mid-range bikes of more limited interest to collectors. Most of the bikes that fill that niche today are still steel and aluminum. I'm very skeptical that CF is going to displace metal as the material for low-end hybrids and etc, even for several decades yet. But CF is here to stay for the high-end stuff, and it WILL survive the years. I have little doubt of that.

THREAD GOT REAL

keep it up, love reading this...

Ha ha ha fool! Your $50,000 miscalculation!

There are two schools of opinion that I have absolutely no time for:

1. "Why are you riding that old crap? Bikes are so much better today."
2. "Steel is real. Carbon fiber is, at best, garbage."

(For the record, I firmly believe in the first part of statement #2, and nastily disagree with the second.)

The bottom line, no matter what theoretical claims are made regarding carbon fiber frames (and in the context of this forum, those claims are usually 98% negative as hell), we have absolutely no idea how a 40 year old carbon fiber frame is going to stand up. Mainly because there aren't any 40 year old carbon fiber frames out there - yet. And those that are approaching that age are nothing more than traditional look bicycles with carbon frame tubes glued/pinned into aluminum lugs. (Hmmn, I've noticed that nobody here ever complains about THOSE bikes - could it be because they still look like what we consider a bicycle should be?)

Like it or not, some carbon bikes are going to survive, unwrecked, most likely cared for (at least) 40-50 years from now. Assuming there's still an interest in bicycles (not necessarily a given), somebody out there is going to collect them as antiques. And some of those bikes will have a more desirable reputation than others. Those will be the collectibles.

That's going to be the worry of those who are in this forum, and are currently 15-25 years old. The rest of us can blather on all we want. It's not going to be our worry - barring some massive improvement in the human life span in the next ten years.

Yeah, you know, I think so. Even some aluminum/carbon fiber bikes.

tcs