BoSoxYacht

Yes, but finding the higher quality 7 & 8 speed stuff can be a challenge. Try finding a new cassette for 7402 Dura-Ace hubs.

Lazyass

It's easy to find, they're on ebay constantly. But like I previously said, you're gonna pay for NOS parts.

New Old Stock Shimano Dura Ace Hyperglide HG 8 Speed Cassette 12x21 | eBay

BoSoxYacht

That's a 7403 cassette, and will not work on 7402 hubs. 7402 cassettes don't use a lockring, instead the smallest cog threads onto the outer end threads of the freehub body.

gsa103

Back to the OP's point. High quality components will be readily available for probably another 5 years, with lower grade stuff (Sora/Tiagra) for many many years.

Using a 11-speed wheelset requires a small spacer which the wheelset will come with. There's an added bonus of providing a little extra clearance for the rear derailleur. So you're totally fine buying any new wheels.

Most likely you'll be wanting to upgrade to a new better bike before you encounter any parts issues, so it will provide a convenient excuse. "Honey, I really need to get a new bike, these old ones just aren't supported anymore."

BoSoxYacht

Shifters are usually the first components that become hard to find, but wear items like chains, cassettes, and chainrings are available much longer.

Carbonfiberboy 

The issue of course is the brifters. Easy to need a new brifter: they wear out and they get damaged. NOS 9 speed brifters seem to have disappeared. I wouldn't buy a used brifter. Which isn't that big a deal unless you run a triple. In which case, so far the industry has pretty well screwed you over. Neither compact nor MTB is a substitute for a road triple.

Brian Ratliff

To add to my previous comments, 10 speed came out over 10 years ago. You can still find new stock (not New Old Stock 'NOS') Ultegra 9 speed cassettes and DA quality chains in ordinary stores (I was searching on Universal Cycles; has everything, but doesn't seek out NOS for resale).

11 speed came out 2 years ago (2012) on the Shimano side. I'd expect 10 speed consumables (chain and cassette) to be still available in 2022. In the Shimano line, 10 speed was king for around for a decade, which makes it the longest running "speed" since 5 speed freewheels. You'll be onto a new bike before you run out of 10 speed parts to support your drivetrain.

Brian Ratliff

I've had shifters break in crashes, but I've never worn them out. I think he'll be fine. It's not terribly difficult to switch to 11 speed at a later date anyway should the need arise.

One thing to think about though... in Shimano's previous changes (8 to 9 to 10) the pull ratio for the rear derailleur didn't change, only the distance between the indices. This means that, chain width aside, all the 8,9,10 derailleurs were compatible with all the 8,9,10 shifters. You could mix and match and use, for instance, a 9 speed derailleur with a 10 speed shifter or a 10 speed derailleur with a 9 speed shifter. When going to 11 speed though, Shimano changed it's pull ratio between the derailleur and the shifter, meaning an 11 speed shifter will not work with a 10 speed derailleur and vice verse.

I race bikes, so I worry about things like shifters breaking in a crash. If I were just a fitness cyclist or riding triathlons, I don't think I would worry about this. Besides, since 10 speed was around for so long, there will likely be a robust 10 speed Shimano NOS market for years to come.

andr0id

It's a P2. It uses Dura Ace 10 speed bar end shifters. It is very unlikely they would ever need to be replaced.

Lazyass

Ah yes, it takes a uniglide.

New Old Stock Shimano Dura Ace 8 Speed Uniglide Cassette 12x19 | eBay

Leinster

New Sora 3x9 tbf.

Shimano ST-3500 Sora Shifter/Brake Lever STI Set (3x9 Speed)

Near-enough equal performance to old top-o-the-line stuff, by all accounts. Understandable that someone would balk at replacing their 90s DA with plasticy-looking Sora, but the question is are you riding it, or looking at it? There's a Colnago in my LBS with a full 10sp Record group, except the 10s Centaur shifters with the newer hood design. It's still a gorgeous bike.

Leinster

Even with an upgrade to 11, there's always the option to go friction on the shifters.

The only upgrade that bike is ever likely to need is Di2.

Dave Mayer

You raise two points here... obsolete in terms of functionality, versus the availability of spares/replacements.

Functionality: 11 speed adds one cog to an already crowded cassette. In terms of the number of 'speeds', we were well past diminishing returns at 9. Most of my bikes are 7 speeders; these provide an adequate range of cogs and cog increments. 11 speed compatible wheels are somewhat inferior to 10-speeds, as they widen out the freehub (again) leading to weaker wheels with more dish and spoke tension differential.

In terms of ergonomics and shifting performance, 11 speed mechanical shifters are basically the same as their 9-speed predecessors. For Campagnolo and Shimano.

11 speed represents a tiny tiny share of the bike market. You pay accordingly. High quality new 8 speed stuff is a bargain, with cassettes, rings and chains a third of the price of 11.

As far as the availability of 10-speed stuff: don't worry. Your bike shop must be talking here with some suble pressure to 'upgrade'. Worst case scenario: 30 years from now you have to hunt for a couple of minutes on Ebay.

Spares: I pay almost nothing for 9 and 10 speed stuff. Most of my scores are cast-offs from early adopter bike racer types. And you don't buy NOS 7-speed XT cassettes on Ebay, you get lighly used equivalents in the parts bins at your local bike co-op. A heavy bag of stuff for $5.

Bah Humbug

My girlfriend actually JUST bought a New P3 and had our shop downgrade it to 10-speed so that it'd be cross-compatible with my wheels and our KICKR, which has a 10-speed cassette on it. I'd expect 10-speed cassettes to be easily available in retail channels for at least half a decade, if not more. Further, if you really get bothered by not having 11-speed, or if the 10-speed parts do somehow dry up, you can get it installed onto your bike in the future. Stop worrying and ride.

And learn to swim well, if you can't already.

Alias530

People are still actively using 9 speed, which is starting to cost more than 10 speed... so probably not for a while. You can still get 7-8 speed stuff pretty easily so if that's how you define "obsolete", then it's going to be more than a decade away.

BoSoxYacht

never said impossible. How about a 13-23 instead of a 19-21 corncob?

8 speed is obsolete, but that doesn't mean it's unusable.

BoSoxYacht

What a shock to see you chime in and rail against 11 speed. At least you didn't make innacurate claims about 11speed having a higher wear rate than 10speed.

bbattle

The Classic and Vintage forum must be laughing their heads off over this thread.

I did.

Alias530

And at the price point of 11spd, something else being 1/3 isn't that much.

105 level cassettes are low $30ish online. At that low, I don't think many people are going to give up extra gears over $20

BoSoxYacht

I doubt very much that anyone here cares what those luddites think.

Dave Mayer

What about Ultegra 6800 chainrings? $180 for the pair. Online. Ouch.

Anyway, for the benefit of the OP - when any shop sharts yapping about 'upgrading' to 11 speed, I suggest you head for the door. In this world there is real progress, but contrast this with the bike industries absurd cycle of planned obsolescence. This involves adding another cog every 7 years soley to stir up some sales churn. Boring.

When the bike industry gives me an internally geared hub with 11 evenly spaced gears that is as light as a derailleur system, then I will drop many zeros to buy this. Alfine 11 is close.

But an external gearing system with a gazillion little cogs and fragile derailleurs hanging out there in the wet and dirt - doesn't this strike eveyone as odd? It is like progress on bicycle gearing systems went off the rails in the 1930's; simply heading in the wrong direction, and the industry is locked on a path that just gets stranger and stranger.

Personally I am holding off any purchasing until the new 12-speed systems come out.

Nachoman

That's what I 'currently' do. I just bought two ten speed dura ace cassettes on sale for $125.00. I typically see them going for around $200.00.

Lazyass

Where??

BoSoxYacht

you shop at the wrong stores, found them at $130 for a pair. They should last for 30k miles. 6800 chains are $25-$30 and I got over 7k miles from my 1st one. 6800 cassettes are under $50 , but I have no personal experience with the expected mileage, but 20k miles should be reasonable to expect.

BTW, I have no doubt you will find something to complain about when Shimano releases 12 speed.

gsa103

The extra gears are providing a wider range, making cycling more accessible. That's a good thing. You can buy compact doubles with wider ranges than the old 9-speed triples. And the low end gearing, compared to an old 7-speed bike is laughably better. True, 11-speed doesn't add range, but it fills in the gaps when 10-speed went to 11-28 cassettes.

All the retro-grouchs complaining about "too many cogs" should be forced to do extended 6% climbs on 52/39 with a 13-23 cassettes because that's how it was done "back in the day".